Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
Up next, the Maryland Terrapins:
Maryland
HC - Mike Locksley (5th year)
OC - Josh Gattis (1st year)
DC - Brian Williams (3rd year)
2022 Record: 8-5
Second Order Win Total: 7.6 (-0.4)
2022 Over/Under: 5.5 Wins
Points/Yards Per Game: 28.2 PPG | 402 yards (260 Pass | 142 Rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 23.2 PPG | 357 yards (223 Pass | 134 Rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 40th
2023 SP+ Offense: 49th
2023 SP+ Defense: 27th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 6th
Offensive Returning Production: 67% (55th)
Defensive Returning Production: 60% (73rd)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8620 (43rd)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8591 (43rd)
Pace of Play: 26.2 seconds per play (60th) | 69.7 (51st)
2023 Schedule Strength:
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
In his third year at the helm of Maryland, HC Mike Locksley was able to push the Terrapins over the finish line with a very respectable 7-6 record. They almost perfectly occupied the middle ground of the Big Ten, as none of the teams Maryland defeated had a winning record while all of their losses were to teams with winning records. A former offensive coordinator at Alabama, HC Locksley was able to lead the Terps to the 26th best offensive performance in the country according to SP+, a ranking that was projected to improve to 15th overall in 2022. The Terps were the 25th most explosive team in the country running the ball, but ranked just 98th in passing explosiveness which is understandable considering UM’s 6.9 yards of average target depth ranked eighth lowest nationally.
Nine starters returned last year, including all five starters from an offensive line that was a brick wall in front of QB Taulia Tagovailoa, posting the seventh-lowest pressure rate (22%) in the country with an impressive 4.8% sack rate (25th) in 2021. Despite the veteran OL, their pass protection fell off a cliff allowing an 8.2% sack rate (109th) and 28.4% pressure rate (67th), while committing 3.8 penalties per game (86th). The leaky line had a deleterious effect on QB Tagovailoa’s production, dropping from 306 pass yards per game to 260 PYPG with a 26% success rate on passing downs (113th). For perspective, Maryland was undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than three sacks, tied for best in FBS. (average: .539).
The Terps focused on short, precision passes, throwing 34% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (7th in FBS), with just 25% of their overall passes going to outside receivers which was the 10th lowest wideout usage rate in the country. They were able to complete 66% of their passes (18th), but ranked 95th in passing explosiveness due to their reliance on the short passing game as their promising wide receiver group underperformed.
Maryland had difficulty getting moving on offense, with 33% of their drives ending with 3-and-outs (94th). Though they were notably effective once they crossed midfield, posting a rock-solid 4.62 points per scoring opportunity (27th) with a 71% red zone TD rate (18th). Tight end Corey Dyches was particularly dangerous in this respect, catching 8 of 10 red zone passes in the 2022 season, which tied for the second-best RZ catch rate among FBS Skill Players.
UM allowed 31 points and 404 yards per game in 2021, which was the third straight year they allowed over 30 PPG and 400 YPG. The Terps brought back seven starters from a unit that posted 31 sacks in 2021, their most since 2016. The defensive backfield was drastically affected by attrition, with starting CB Deonte Banks getting injured in Week 2 in addition to various in-season ailments that whittled down the depth chart. Fortunately JUCO transfer Jakorian Bennett emerged as a legitimate CB1 by leading all Power Five defensive players with 16 PBU. Despite the UM 2021 defense ranking 80th in SP+, they established a foundation that paved the way for Maryland’s standout 2022 unit.
It all came together for the defense last year, as the Terrapins fielded their best defensive unit in over a decade by allowing 23.2 PPG and 357 yards per game. Their 33rd overall SP+ D held opponents to a 9.6% explosive play rate (11th) while ranking 27th in IsoPPP. Starting cornerbacks Banks (43% completion rate/62 YAC allowed/3% missed tackle rate) and Bennett (43% completion rate/47.5 NFL Passer Rating when targeted) outright refused to get beat over the top, with the defense ranking 24th nationally in completions of 20+ yards (14%) and 21st in net yards per attempt (6.1).
Maryland was also stout when backed up in their own territory allowing just a 51% red zone TD rate (23rd) and 3.86 points per scoring opportunity (34th), minimizing the damage done when teams were able to mount drives. Their formidable front-seven held their ground in run defense with a 40% success rate (31st) and 2.4 line yards per carry allowed on standard downs (32nd). They got pushed around a bit in short yardage situations though, allowing a 72% power success rate (86th), 17.5% stuff rate (74th) and an 81% goal-to-go TD rate that ranked 103rd in FBS. In fact, Maryland was unable to tackle opponents for a loss on any of their 36 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last year.
UM’s biggest weakness was the inability to generate pressure from their defensive front, recording a 4.7% sack rate (108th) and a troubling 22.5% pressure rate when teams dropped back to pass. The lack of a consistent rush hampered the overall unit’s ability to generate turnovers and impact plays on D, as is evidenced by their 13.6% havoc rate which ranked 107th nationally. With a pair of NFL-caliber CBs in Banks/Bennet, imagine what Maryland could have done with a slightly improved pass rush?
Looking ahead to 2023
Two-year OC Dan Enos hits the road with HC Locksley bringing in OC Josh Gattis, whom he coached with back when Locksley was OC at Alabama. Gattis is a former Broyles Award recipient who coordinated the offenses of Michigan and Miami in recent years. OC Gattis lasted just one, ignominious season at Miami where the Hurricanes cratered from 34 PPG and 440 yards per game in 2020 & 2021 under Rhett Lashlee, to just 23.6 PPG and 368 YPG in 2022.
QB Taulia Tagovailoa returns along with sophomore RB duo Roman Hemby (989 rush yards/5.3 YPC/33 recs for 298 yards) and four-star recruit Ramon Brown. Hemby was a revelation last year as an unheralded three-star redshirt freshman who started every single game and was a legitimate weapon in the pass game, reeling in 33-of-36 targets with zero drops. He doesn’t make people miss though, dodging just 17% of his tackle attempts with a 2.8 YAC average and a subpar 57.1 PFF elusiveness rating. I could see Brown take on a bigger role in his second year with a new OC who has yet to establish his preferred pecking order .
It will be interesting to see how OC Gattis uses Taulia, as he put a cork in former Miami OC Rhett Lashlee’s aerial assault last year and had previously overseen a Michigan offense that was in the 250 yards per game range. Gattis and Enos both posted downfield throw rates of 13% last year, 84th nationally, so expect a somewhat similar version of last year’s short-yardage based pass attack that accentuated Tagovailoa’s accuracy that saw him complete 194-of-238 (82%) of passes within 10-yards of the line.
He’s throwing to a revamped wide receiver corps that portals-in FIU star Tyrese Chambers and West Virginia four-star Kaden Prather (52-of-82/502 yds/10.3% drop rate) who started 10 games last year for the Mountaineers. Chambers already has a 1,000 yard receiving season under his belt in 2021, and it only took him 78 targets to get there, which was the lowest number of targets for any 1,000 yard wideout in the last two seasons.
The fate of the Maryland offense rests upon the rebuilt offensive line with four starters departing, including two NFL Draft choices in Jaelyn Duncan and Spencer Anderson, from their already leaky 2022 unit that allowed a staggering 43 sacks. As a result HC Locksley brought in four transfers to help support Third Team All-Big Ten LT DJ Glaze who posted an excellent 86.2 PFF pass block grade in 940 snaps last year. RT Gottlieb Ayedze was a DII All-American with Frostburg State last season and should be an immediate starter on the bookend. With just 31 FBS line starts returning, the newcomers will need to gel quickly.
Similar to the offense, the D replaces all four defensive line starters and two rotational backups. As is often the case with the non-blue blood programs of the Big Ten who have a never-ending pool of impact defensive linemen to cycle through, Maryland brought in rFr DL Jordan Phillips from Tennessee and DE Donnell Brown, who was the Defensive Player of the Year at St. Francis, to help with the losses. They will need to boost their disappointing 3.6% DL havoc rate (113th) to help support a defensive backfield that loses All-Big Ten CBs Banks and Bennett.
The secondary returns both safeties and nickel back Tarheeb Still from 2022’s top flight pass defense unit. HC Locksley also scored a pair of huge DB transfers in Cincinnati CB Ja/Quan Sheppard, who played 816 snaps last year and earned First Team All-AAC honors for the Bearcats, and Avantae Williams who spent two years at Miami after earning a pristine .9769 247Sports player rating out of high school..
Analyzing Maryland’s Win Total
Maryland opened at an even 7 wins before bumping the hook up to 7.5 within a few weeks. Being in the Big Ten West means we can start them out with three losses to @Ohio State/Penn State/Michigan right out of the gate, so we’re operating from a 9-win baseline. The Terrapins open with three straight home games against Towson, Charlotte and Virginia where they should be heavily favored. A Week 4 road trip to East Lansing against a vulnerable Michigan State team that they beat 27-13 last year is their first Big Ten test before heading back home to host an Indiana team that is searching for an identity. They go to Columbus to face Ohio State before heading back to Maryland to play Illinois in a game they’re likely to be field goal favorites in. Heading into the Week 8 BYE, Maryland could conceivably be favored in six of their first seven games with a 5-2 record. From there they face a reeling @Northwestern, Penn State at home and @Nebraska with new HC Matt Rhule in charge. They’ll need to be 7-3 when they take on Michigan at home before their Over/Under defining matchup against @Rutgers in the final week of the season.
I think Maryland’s problems on both lines, coupled with the replacement of their two star cornerbacks is enough for me to back the Under 7.5 Wins for the Terps in the always tough Big Ten West.