“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). [[ad:athena]]
Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 9
1. Jerry Jeudy (@ ATL)
2. Leonard Fournette (vs. NO)
3. Robby Anderson (@ KC)
4. D’Andre Swift (@ MIN)
5. Josh Jacobs (@ LAC)
Fantasy Usage Model - WRs
Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
| Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
| Davante Adams | WR1 (23.0) | WR1 (29.0) | 32.1, 14.3, 29.0, & 25.8 xFPs in healthy games. |
| DK Metcalf | WR2 (20.2) | WR3 (23.9) | Leading WRs in air yards P/G (122) in last 4. |
| Keenan Allen | WR3 (18.8) | WR5 (22.1) | 22.2 xFPs P/G in 5 healthy Herbert games. |
| Tyler Lockett | WR4 (18.7) | WR4 (22.9) | Most volatile fantasy usage week to week. WR1. |
| Jamison Crowder | WR5 (18.3) | WR14 (18.7) | Removed Weeks 7-8 & groins can linger. WR2. |
| Travis Fulgham | WR6 (18.2) | WR10 (20.7) | xFPs P/G: Weeks 5-8 (20.3), Week 9 (11.8). |
| Julio Jones | WR7 (18.0) | WR2 (24.0) | Top-5 WR with or without Ridley (foot). |
| Terry McLaurin | WR8 (17.6) | WR33 (14.0) | 10.0 targets, 34% share in last 4 weeks. WR2. |
| Brandin Cooks | WR9 (17.5) | WR7 (21.6) | Target share since Wk 5: BC (27%), WF (23%). |
| Tyler Boyd | WR10 (17.5) | WR18 (17.0) | 46% of targets are over the middle. That’s elite. |
| Cooper Kupp | WR11 (17.2) | WR31 (15.0) | WR1/2 usage on career-low 7.3 YPT. WR2. |
| Corey Davis | WR12 (17.2) | WR8 (21.2) | WR2 usage recently but was a WR5/6 for a year. |
| Stefon Diggs | WR13 (17.1) | WR28 (15.8) | 3rd in targets per game (11.0) in last 4 weeks. |
| Sterling Shepard | WR14 (16.5) | WR22 (16.7) | Was NYG’s No. 1 in 2019. Is the No. 1 in 2020. |
| Diontae Johnson | WR15 (16.1) | WR30 (15.3) | Only includes Wk 7-8. Boom-bust WR3. Health? |
| Will Fuller | WR16 (15.4) | WR17 (17.5) | 3rd in air yards P/G (116) in last 4. Upside WR2. |
| A.J. Green | WR17 (15.1) | WR38 (12.2) | WR2 usage on WR5 legs. Volatile top-36 WR. |
| Allen Robinson | WR18 (15.1) | WR16 (17.7) | 102 air yards P/G as low-end WR1 despite QB. |
| D.J. Chark | WR19 (15.0) | WR87 (6.6) | 8th in air yards P/G (111) in last 4. Backup QB. |
| Calvin Ridley | WR20 (14.7) | WR12 (19.5) | Removed Week 8 (foot). Volatile WR1/2 with JJ. |
| Adam Thielen | WR21 (14.4) | WR24 (16.4) | Only had 8 air yards Week 8. Volatile WR2. |
| A.J. Brown | WR22 (14.0) | WR9 (20.9) | Efficiency outlier on low-end WR2 usage. |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR23 (13.8) | WR11 (20.2) | Seeing hardest targets possible but still a WR1. |
| Chris Godwin | WR24 (13.8) | WR19 (16.8) | WR2/3 usage even without AB. Upside WR3? |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR25 (13.6) | WR50 (10.6) | xFPs per game: With Dak (14.7), without (9.0). |
| Robby Anderson | WR26 (13.3) | WR34 (13.5) | 29% target share in last 4 weeks. WR2/3. |
| Robert Woods | WR27 (13.2) | WR6 (22.0) | Only a 18% target share but gets carries. WR3. |
| Jarvis Landry | WR28 (13.2) | WR56 (9.9) | Banged up but season-high 44% share Week 8. |
| Marquez Callaway | WR29 (13.1) | WR45 (11.5) | Will be unusable when Thomas/Sanders return. |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR30 (12.8) | WR53 (10.2) | Low-floor flex with Diontae. A sad 5.6 aDOT. |
| Chase Claypool | WR31 (12.8) | WR13 (19.4) | Treated as No. 1 WR by defenses. Volatile WR3. |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR32 (12.8) | WR32 (14.3) | Season-high 22.4 xFPs Week 8 without Deebo. |
| Tee Higgins | WR33 (12.6) | WR29 (15.5) | 7.5 targets, 94 air yards in last 4 games. WR3. |
| Marquise Brown | WR34 (12.4) | WR37 (12.3) | 6 air yards in Week 8 was very disappointing. |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR35 (12.1) | WR48 (11.0) | 9.7 & 14.4 expected fantasy points in last 2. |
| Kenny Golladay | WR36 (12.0) | WR27 (16.0) | Out weeks. |
| Marvin Jones | WR37 (12.0) | WR42 (11.6) | xFPs P/G: With Kenny (7.2), without (13.4). |
| Darius Slayton | WR38 (11.8) | WR41 (11.9) | 5.7 & 14.0 xFPs in 2 games with Shepard back. |
| Josh Reynolds | WR39 (11.6) | WR61 (9.0) | 17% target share in last 4 games. WR5 dart. |
| D.J. Moore | WR40 (11.6) | WR23 (16.6) | Career-high 10.5 YPT hiding WR3 usage. Sell? |
| Randall Cobb | WR41 (11.6) | WR36 (13.0) | Under 10.0 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. PPR WR5. |
| Christian Kirk | WR42 (11.5) | WR15 (18.7) | NFL-high 97% of targets near the sideline. |
| Deebo Samuel | WR43 (11.4) | WR44 (11.5) | Out weeks. |
| Tyreek Hill | WR44 (11.2) | WR21 (16.8) | Efficiency outlier (9.9 YPT) as low-end WR1. |
| Amari Cooper | WR45 (11.0) | WR51 (10.5) | xFPs per game: With Dak (17.9), without (8.8). |
| Curtis Samuel | WR46 (10.9) | WR20 (16.8) | Still only a 19% target share in last 4. WR4/5. |
| Tim Patrick | WR47 (10.8) | WR49 (10.8) | 16.0 aDOT as Denver’s deep threat if healthy. |
| Justin Jefferson | WR48 (10.7) | WR26 (16.2) | 6.7 targets, 67 air yards in last 4. Volatile WR2/3. |
| Mike Williams | WR49 (10.7) | WR25 (16.3) | LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight. |
| Cole Beasley | WR50 (10.5) | WR35 (13.1) | 7.4 aDOT, 47 air yards per game. PPR WR4/5. |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR51 (10.5) | WR85 (6.8) | Led Week 8 in air yards with Patrick out. WR4/5. |
| Jalen Reagor | WR52 (10.3) | WR39 (12.2) | 22% target share in Week 8. Upside WR4. |
| Keelan Cole | WR53 (10.3) | WR47 (11.1) | |
| Michael Gallup | WR54 (10.2) | WR81 (7.2) | 2nd in targets near the sideline (94%). WR5/6. |
| Jeff Smith | WR55 (10.1) | WR114 (3.3) | |
| Darnell Mooney | WR56 (9.8) | WR43 (11.5) | 105 air yards per game in last 4. No-floor WR5. |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR57 (9.8) | WR63 (9.0) | I’d bench him for Andy, but I’m not an NFL coach. |
| Laviska Shenault | WR58 (9.7) | WR65 (8.8) | 16% target share and now with a backup QB. |
| Anthony Miller | WR59 (9.3) | WR52 (10.3) | Season-high 18.0 xFPs in Week 8. Still a WR5/6. |
| Mike Evans | WR60 (9.2) | WR57 (9.8) | 10.7 xFPs per game on season. Now adding AB. |
| Zach Pascal | WR61 (9.2) | WR66 (8.8) | |
| Denzel Mims | WR62 (9.1) | WR80 (7.2) | WR5/6 usage. Crowder returning soon? |
| Breshad Perriman | WR63 (8.9) | WR79 (7.5) | |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR64 (8.9) | WR91 (6.0) | Career-low 5.6 YPT. Now injured. |
| Greg Ward | WR65 (8.6) | WR62 (9.0) | |
| Braxton Berrios | WR66 (8.5) | WR92 (5.8) | |
| Marcus Johnson | WR67 (8.4) | WR54 (10.0) | |
| Nelson Agholor | WR68 (8.4) | WR40 (12.1) | Under 8.5 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. WR6 only. |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR69 (7.7) | WR69 (8.4) | Season-high 17.7 xFPs Week 8 with Deebo out. |
| DeVante Parker | WR70 (7.6) | WR64 (8.9) | 17% target share in last 4. 1 air yard in Week 8. |
| Deonte Harris | WR71 (7.6) | WR59 (9.7) | |
| Julian Edelman | WR72 (7.6) | WR120 (2.6) | Injured reserve. |
| Preston Williams | WR73 (7.5) | WR46 (11.3) | Team-high 75 air yards per game in last 4. WR6. |
| Tre’Quan Smith | WR74 (7.3) | WR82 (7.2) | |
| Russell Gage | WR75 (7.3) | WR77 (7.5) | |
| Scotty Miller | WR76 (7.2) | WR72 (7.9) | |
| Willie Snead | WR77 (6.8) | WR86 (6.6) | |
| Gabriel Davis | WR78 (6.8) | WR107 (3.7) | |
| John Hightower | WR79 (6.7) | WR98 (4.2) | |
| Adam Humphries | WR80 (6.7) | WR84 (7.1) | |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR81 (6.5) | WR70 (8.0) | |
| KJ Hamler | WR82 (6.4) | WR73 (7.9) | |
| Collin Johnson | WR83 (6.3) | WR83 (7.2) | |
| David Moore | WR84 (6.2) | WR78 (7.5) | |
| Marvin Hall | WR85 (6.1) | WR93 (5.7) | |
| Jalen Guyton | WR86 (6.1) | WR74 (7.7) | |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR87 (6.0) | WR67 (8.7) | |
| Trent Taylor | WR88 (5.9) | WR101 (4.0) | |
| Mecole Hardman | WR89 (5.8) | WR60 (9.7) | Season-high 13.6 xFPs Week 8. 31-of-47 routes. |
| DaeSean Hamilton | WR90 (5.8) | WR75 (7.6) | |
| Henry Ruggs | WR91 (5.8) | WR58 (9.7) | Under 9.0 xFPs in all 4 “healthy” games. WR5. |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR92 (5.6) | WR111 (3.5) | Bad at the game. Lazard returning. |
| Tyler Johnson | WR93 (5.6) | WR71 (7.9) | |
| Rashard Higgins | WR94 (5.6) | WR55 (10.0) | 2.9 xFPs & 12% target share in Week 8. WR6. |
| Cedrick Wilson | WR95 (5.3) | WR124 (2.0) | |
| Danny Amendola | WR96 (5.3) | WR76 (7.6) | |
| Isaiah Wright | WR97 (5.2) | WR102 (4.0) | |
| James Washington | WR98 (5.2) | WR94 (5.6) | |
| Damiere Byrd | WR99 (5.1) | WR95 (5.4) | |
| Golden Tate | WR100 (5.0) | WR68 (8.6) | Droppable in 12-team leagues. |
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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs
Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
| Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
| Travis Kelce | TE1 (15.5) | TE1 (19.8) | Has 2x the PPR points of the TE12 this season. |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE2 (14.2) | TE6 (13.4) | 15.9, 11.3, & 15.2 xFPs in 3 games post-bye. |
| Darren Waller | TE3 (13.3) | TE4 (13.5) | 25% target share (2nd) in last 4 weeks. The TE2. |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE4 (13.2) | TE2 (14.6) | 17% target share in last 4 likely to drop. TE1/2. |
| Austin Hooper | TE5 (12.5) | TE8 (10.5) | 13.0, 16.2, & 8.7 xFPs before surgery. TE1. |
| Noah Fant | TE6 (12.4) | TE16 (9.3) | At least 9.7 xFPs in all six healthy games. TE1. |
| Mark Andrews | TE7 (11.3) | TE14 (9.3) | 22% target share is a disappointment. Still TE1. |
| Evan Engram | TE8 (11.3) | TE13 (9.4) | 3rd in routes. Usage trending up. Low-end TE1. |
| Jimmy Graham | TE9 (11.0) | TE27 (6.8) | TE1/2 usage. TD-dependent in horrible offense. |
| Trey Burton | TE10 (11.0) | TE5 (13.4) | Only 15-of-37 routes Week 8 but schemed open. |
| Hunter Henry | TE11 (10.1) | TE20 (8.3) | LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight. |
| Eric Ebron | TE12 (9.8) | TE12 (9.5) | TD-dependent on 17% target share. TE2. |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | TE13 (9.2) | TE17 (9.1) | Only 15-of-48 routes Week 8 with Fant healthy. |
| Jared Cook | TE14 (9.2) | TE3 (13.8) | Season-high 13.0 xFPs Week 8 without MT/ES. |
| Hayden Hurst | TE15 (9.2) | TE9 (10.4) | 2nd in TE routes. 6.0 targets per game in last 4. |
| Ross Dwelley | TE16 (8.5) | TE19 (8.6) | Season-high 8.5 xFPs Week 8. Jordan Reed? |
| Anthony Firkser | TE17 (8.4) | TE11 (9.6) | Off the radar when Jonnu is healthy. |
| Jonnu Smith | TE18 (8.4) | TE15 (9.3) | 8.3 & 2.9 xFPs in last 2 with AJB & CD balling. |
| Gerald Everett | TE19 (7.8) | TE18 (8.8) | Week 8 routes: Everett (29), Higbee (24). TE2/3. |
| Dalton Schultz | TE20 (7.5) | TE28 (6.2) | TE2 usage as backup TE with backup QB. |
| Logan Thomas | TE21 (7.0) | TE10 (10.2) | Produced but 7.9 & 7.1 xFPs in last 2 games. |
| Irv Smith | TE22 (6.7) | TE22 (7.5) | 15-of-18 Week 8 routes with low-end TE2 usage. |
| Tyler Eifert | TE23 (6.6) | TE54 (2.3) | |
| Robert Tonyan | TE24 (6.2) | TE21 (7.9) | 26-of-50 Week 8 routes. TDs only with Adams. |
| Mike Gesicki | TE25 (6.1) | TE32 (5.3) | Slot WR Ford trade improves Gesicki’s outlook. |
| Greg Olsen | TE26 (5.5) | TE56 (2.3) | |
| Darren Fells | TE27 (5.4) | TE7 (11.4) | |
| Jace Sternberger | TE28 (5.2) | TE23 (7.5) | |
| Harrison Bryant | TE29 (4.9) | TE24 (7.3) | 23-of-30 Week 8 routes. Hooper returning. Drop. |
| Durham Smythe | TE30 (4.9) | TE31 (5.5) | |
| Richard Rodgers | TE31 (4.9) | TE29 (5.9) | |
| Tyler Higbee | TE32 (4.8) | TE33 (5.1) | 30th in TE routes in 2020. |
| Jack Doyle | TE33 (4.7) | TE25 (7.2) | |
| Will Dissly | TE34 (4.3) | TE30 (5.8) | |
| Cameron Brate | TE35 (4.2) | TE34 (4.5) |
Fantasy Usage Model - RBs
Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
| Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
| Alvin Kamara | RB1 (22.9) | RB3 (22.7) | 18.9+ xFPs in all 7 games. 126-catch pace. |
| Dalvin Cook | RB2 (22.4) | RB1 (34.3) | The RB2 overall moving forward. |
| Myles Gaskin | RB3 (22.0) | RB7 (17.3) | The Fantasy Usage Model hero is going to IR. |
| Joe Mixon | RB4 (21.8) | RB15 (15.2) | 24.0 xFPs P/G in last 3 healthy games. |
| David Montgomery | RB5 (21.2) | RB17 (14.4) | Knock his speed all you want. RB1 usage. RB2. |
| Josh Jacobs | RB6 (19.9) | RB20 (13.8) | Touch shares: Leading (55%), trailing (15%). |
| James Robinson | RB7 (19.2) | RB5 (19.0) | xFPs P/G: With Thompson (14.9), without (23.5). |
| David Johnson | RB8 (18.8) | RB16 (14.9) | All 18 touches in Week 7 came in 1st/2nd down. |
| Derrick Henry | RB9 (18.6) | RB2 (23.0) | Pacing for 368 carries. Is that sustainable? |
| Leonard Fournette | RB10 (18.5) | RB26 (12.9) | 21.4 & 15.7 xFPs in last 2. RoJo keeps fumbling. |
| James Conner | RB11 (17.9) | RB11 (15.4) | RB1/2 usage in near bellcow role. |
| Todd Gurley | RB12 (17.8) | RB8 (16.9) | Iffy speed but 13.4+ xFPs in all 8 games. RB1/2. |
| DeeJay Dallas | RB13 (17.7) | RB21 (13.8) | xFPs: Week 7 (4.6), Week 8 (30.8). |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB14 (16.6) | RB24 (13.5) | xFPs P/G: Weeks 1-6 (24.2), Weeks 7-8 (12.1). |
| Darrell Henderson | RB15 (16.5) | RB29 (12.5) | Removed Week 8. Early-down RB2/3. |
| Mike Davis | RB16 (16.4) | RB14 (15.2) | Quality RB1/2 fill in for CMC. Insurance only now. |
| Kareem Hunt | RB17 (16.3) | RB23 (13.6) | Chubb could be back Week 10, meaning RB2/3. |
| Kenyan Drake | RB18 (16.0) | RB10 (15.6) | Pure runner on bad ankle if he’s a surprise active. |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB19 (15.8) | RB27 (12.8) | Season-low 9.4 xFPs Week 8. Still the 1A. |
| Jamaal Williams | RB20 (15.8) | RB22 (13.7) | RB1 run likely over. Elite insurance. Bench hold. |
| Devonta Freeman | RB21 (15.7) | RB32 (11.7) | Was seeing RB2 usage before injury. Gallman? |
| D’Andre Swift | RB22 (15.6) | RB9 (15.8) | Week 8 snaps: Swift (38/61), AP (12), KJ (11). |
| Melvin Gordon | RB23 (14.6) | RB25 (13.4) | Lindsay only a pure rusher. Gordon is a RB2/3. |
| Ronald Jones | RB24 (14.5) | RB12 (15.2) | RB3 usage with Fournette. Fumbled Week 8. |
| Justin Jackson | RB25 (13.9) | RB19 (14.0) | Inconsistent RB3 with Kelley and Pope involved. |
| Antonio Gibson | RB26 (13.8) | RB28 (12.8) | Post-Bye Rookie Bump? Was a pure runner only. |
| Giovani Bernard | RB27 (13.1) | RB18 (14.2) | Low-end RB1 insurance when Mixon misses. |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB28 (13.0) | RB31 (12.0) | Having Trent Richardson-like season. RB2/3. |
| Miles Sanders | RB29 (12.8) | RB4 (21.1) | Should return to top-8 RB levels following bye. |
| Raheem Mostert | RB30 (11.9) | RB30 (12.3) | Injured reserve. Coleman, Wilson both hurt. |
| Boston Scott | RB31 (11.1) | RB42 (7.8) | Low-end RB1 insurance when Sanders misses. |
| Chase Edmonds | RB32 (10.4) | RB13 (15.2) | RB1 if Drake misses. Outplaying him in general. |
| Joshua Kelley | RB33 (10.3) | RB51 (6.2) | Week 8 snaps: JJ (41), Pope (25), Kelley (21). |
| Gus Edwards | RB34 (10.3) | RB39 (8.6) | All 17 Week 8 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB3. |
| Nyheim Hines | RB35 (10.1) | RB33 (11.3) | 2 TDs in Week 8 but only 11.9 xFPs. PPR RB3. |
| J.D. McKissic | RB36 (10.1) | RB35 (10.8) | Could lose passing role to Gibson post-bye. |
| Alexander Mattison | RB37 (9.9) | RB46 (7.1) | |
| Jeff Wilson | RB38 (9.4) | RB6 (17.4) | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB39 (9.0) | RB38 (8.8) | 1st in YAC, broken tackles per carry, YPC. RB3. |
| Devin Singletary | RB40 (8.9) | RB49 (6.7) | Only seeing 2.3 “high value touches” per game. |
| Latavius Murray | RB41 (8.8) | RB48 (6.8) | |
| Lamical Perine | RB42 (8.7) | RB41 (8.1) | |
| Phillip Lindsay | RB43 (8.4) | RB34 (11.2) | |
| Malcolm Brown | RB44 (8.3) | RB53 (6.0) | |
| JaMycal Hasty | RB45 (8.1) | RB44 (7.4) | |
| James White | RB46 (8.1) | RB45 (7.4) | |
| Zack Moss | RB47 (8.1) | RB36 (10.4) | Week 8 xFPs: Moss (14.5), Singletary (8.3). |
| Troymaine Pope | RB48 (8.0) | RB43 (7.6) | |
| Tony Pollard | RB49 (7.9) | RB58 (5.7) | |
| Wayne Gallman | RB50 (7.8) | RB40 (8.5) | 14.3 & 9.9 xFPs in two games without Freeman. |
| Adrian Peterson | RB51 (7.5) | RB50 (6.3) | |
| Brian Hill | RB52 (7.2) | RB47 (6.8) | |
| Samaje Perine | RB53 (7.2) | RB54 (6.0) | |
| Chris Thompson | RB54 (6.9) | RB56 (5.9) | |
| Damien Harris | RB55 (6.7) | RB37 (9.5) | Only NE RB with inside-10 touch Week 8. RB3. |
| Duke Johnson | RB56 (6.7) | RB62 (4.7) | |
| Le’Veon Bell | RB57 (6.1) | RB60 (5.4) | Week 8 snaps: Edwards-Helaire (33), Bell (17). |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB58 (6.0) | RB61 (5.3) | We’re tired. He’s tired. Only 10.0 xFPs Week 8. |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB59 (6.0) | RB65 (4.4) | |
| Frank Gore | RB60 (6.0) | RB57 (5.8) | |
| Jordan Wilkins | RB61 (5.5) | RB52 (6.1) | Season-high 14.1 xFPs Week 8. Better than JT? |
The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 9
Part 1: High-Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)
Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)
Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
My Twitter: @HaydenWinks
