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Usage Model Notes: Is Keenan A Top 5 WR?

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). [[ad:athena]]


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 9

1. Jerry Jeudy (@ ATL)

2. Leonard Fournette (vs. NO)

3. Robby Anderson (@ KC)

4. D’Andre Swift (@ MIN)

5. Josh Jacobs (@ LAC)


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Davante Adams WR1 (23.0) WR1 (29.0) 32.1, 14.3, 29.0, & 25.8 xFPs in healthy games.
DK Metcalf WR2 (20.2) WR3 (23.9) Leading WRs in air yards P/G (122) in last 4.
Keenan Allen WR3 (18.8) WR5 (22.1) 22.2 xFPs P/G in 5 healthy Herbert games.
Tyler Lockett WR4 (18.7) WR4 (22.9) Most volatile fantasy usage week to week. WR1.
Jamison Crowder WR5 (18.3) WR14 (18.7) Removed Weeks 7-8 & groins can linger. WR2.
Travis Fulgham WR6 (18.2) WR10 (20.7) xFPs P/G: Weeks 5-8 (20.3), Week 9 (11.8).
Julio Jones WR7 (18.0) WR2 (24.0) Top-5 WR with or without Ridley (foot).
Terry McLaurin WR8 (17.6) WR33 (14.0) 10.0 targets, 34% share in last 4 weeks. WR2.
Brandin Cooks WR9 (17.5) WR7 (21.6) Target share since Wk 5: BC (27%), WF (23%).
Tyler Boyd WR10 (17.5) WR18 (17.0) 46% of targets are over the middle. That’s elite.
Cooper Kupp WR11 (17.2) WR31 (15.0) WR1/2 usage on career-low 7.3 YPT. WR2.
Corey Davis WR12 (17.2) WR8 (21.2) WR2 usage recently but was a WR5/6 for a year.
Stefon Diggs WR13 (17.1) WR28 (15.8) 3rd in targets per game (11.0) in last 4 weeks.
Sterling Shepard WR14 (16.5) WR22 (16.7) Was NYG’s No. 1 in 2019. Is the No. 1 in 2020.
Diontae Johnson WR15 (16.1) WR30 (15.3) Only includes Wk 7-8. Boom-bust WR3. Health?
Will Fuller WR16 (15.4) WR17 (17.5) 3rd in air yards P/G (116) in last 4. Upside WR2.
A.J. Green WR17 (15.1) WR38 (12.2) WR2 usage on WR5 legs. Volatile top-36 WR.
Allen Robinson WR18 (15.1) WR16 (17.7) 102 air yards P/G as low-end WR1 despite QB.
D.J. Chark WR19 (15.0) WR87 (6.6) 8th in air yards P/G (111) in last 4. Backup QB.
Calvin Ridley WR20 (14.7) WR12 (19.5) Removed Week 8 (foot). Volatile WR1/2 with JJ.
Adam Thielen WR21 (14.4) WR24 (16.4) Only had 8 air yards Week 8. Volatile WR2.
A.J. Brown WR22 (14.0) WR9 (20.9) Efficiency outlier on low-end WR2 usage.
DeAndre Hopkins WR23 (13.8) WR11 (20.2) Seeing hardest targets possible but still a WR1.
Chris Godwin WR24 (13.8) WR19 (16.8) WR2/3 usage even without AB. Upside WR3?
CeeDee Lamb WR25 (13.6) WR50 (10.6) xFPs per game: With Dak (14.7), without (9.0).
Robby Anderson WR26 (13.3) WR34 (13.5) 29% target share in last 4 weeks. WR2/3.
Robert Woods WR27 (13.2) WR6 (22.0) Only a 18% target share but gets carries. WR3.
Jarvis Landry WR28 (13.2) WR56 (9.9) Banged up but season-high 44% share Week 8.
Marquez Callaway WR29 (13.1) WR45 (11.5) Will be unusable when Thomas/Sanders return.
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR30 (12.8) WR53 (10.2) Low-floor flex with Diontae. A sad 5.6 aDOT.
Chase Claypool WR31 (12.8) WR13 (19.4) Treated as No. 1 WR by defenses. Volatile WR3.
Brandon Aiyuk WR32 (12.8) WR32 (14.3) Season-high 22.4 xFPs Week 8 without Deebo.
Tee Higgins WR33 (12.6) WR29 (15.5) 7.5 targets, 94 air yards in last 4 games. WR3.
Marquise Brown WR34 (12.4) WR37 (12.3) 6 air yards in Week 8 was very disappointing.
Jakobi Meyers WR35 (12.1) WR48 (11.0) 9.7 & 14.4 expected fantasy points in last 2.
Kenny Golladay WR36 (12.0) WR27 (16.0) Out weeks.
Marvin Jones WR37 (12.0) WR42 (11.6) xFPs P/G: With Kenny (7.2), without (13.4).
Darius Slayton WR38 (11.8) WR41 (11.9) 5.7 & 14.0 xFPs in 2 games with Shepard back.
Josh Reynolds WR39 (11.6) WR61 (9.0) 17% target share in last 4 games. WR5 dart.
D.J. Moore WR40 (11.6) WR23 (16.6) Career-high 10.5 YPT hiding WR3 usage. Sell?
Randall Cobb WR41 (11.6) WR36 (13.0) Under 10.0 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. PPR WR5.
Christian Kirk WR42 (11.5) WR15 (18.7) NFL-high 97% of targets near the sideline.
Deebo Samuel WR43 (11.4) WR44 (11.5) Out weeks.
Tyreek Hill WR44 (11.2) WR21 (16.8) Efficiency outlier (9.9 YPT) as low-end WR1.
Amari Cooper WR45 (11.0) WR51 (10.5) xFPs per game: With Dak (17.9), without (8.8).
Curtis Samuel WR46 (10.9) WR20 (16.8) Still only a 19% target share in last 4. WR4/5.
Tim Patrick WR47 (10.8) WR49 (10.8) 16.0 aDOT as Denver’s deep threat if healthy.
Justin Jefferson WR48 (10.7) WR26 (16.2) 6.7 targets, 67 air yards in last 4. Volatile WR2/3.
Mike Williams WR49 (10.7) WR25 (16.3) LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight.
Cole Beasley WR50 (10.5) WR35 (13.1) 7.4 aDOT, 47 air yards per game. PPR WR4/5.
Jerry Jeudy WR51 (10.5) WR85 (6.8) Led Week 8 in air yards with Patrick out. WR4/5.
Jalen Reagor WR52 (10.3) WR39 (12.2) 22% target share in Week 8. Upside WR4.
Keelan Cole WR53 (10.3) WR47 (11.1)
Michael Gallup WR54 (10.2) WR81 (7.2) 2nd in targets near the sideline (94%). WR5/6.
Jeff Smith WR55 (10.1) WR114 (3.3)
Darnell Mooney WR56 (9.8) WR43 (11.5) 105 air yards per game in last 4. No-floor WR5.
Larry Fitzgerald WR57 (9.8) WR63 (9.0) I’d bench him for Andy, but I’m not an NFL coach.
Laviska Shenault WR58 (9.7) WR65 (8.8) 16% target share and now with a backup QB.
Anthony Miller WR59 (9.3) WR52 (10.3) Season-high 18.0 xFPs in Week 8. Still a WR5/6.
Mike Evans WR60 (9.2) WR57 (9.8) 10.7 xFPs per game on season. Now adding AB.
Zach Pascal WR61 (9.2) WR66 (8.8)
Denzel Mims WR62 (9.1) WR80 (7.2) WR5/6 usage. Crowder returning soon?
Breshad Perriman WR63 (8.9) WR79 (7.5)
T.Y. Hilton WR64 (8.9) WR91 (6.0) Career-low 5.6 YPT. Now injured.
Greg Ward WR65 (8.6) WR62 (9.0)
Braxton Berrios WR66 (8.5) WR92 (5.8)
Marcus Johnson WR67 (8.4) WR54 (10.0)
Nelson Agholor WR68 (8.4) WR40 (12.1) Under 8.5 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. WR6 only.
Kendrick Bourne WR69 (7.7) WR69 (8.4) Season-high 17.7 xFPs Week 8 with Deebo out.
DeVante Parker WR70 (7.6) WR64 (8.9) 17% target share in last 4. 1 air yard in Week 8.
Deonte Harris WR71 (7.6) WR59 (9.7)
Julian Edelman WR72 (7.6) WR120 (2.6) Injured reserve.
Preston Williams WR73 (7.5) WR46 (11.3) Team-high 75 air yards per game in last 4. WR6.
Tre’Quan Smith WR74 (7.3) WR82 (7.2)
Russell Gage WR75 (7.3) WR77 (7.5)
Scotty Miller WR76 (7.2) WR72 (7.9)
Willie Snead WR77 (6.8) WR86 (6.6)
Gabriel Davis WR78 (6.8) WR107 (3.7)
John Hightower WR79 (6.7) WR98 (4.2)
Adam Humphries WR80 (6.7) WR84 (7.1)
Demarcus Robinson WR81 (6.5) WR70 (8.0)
KJ Hamler WR82 (6.4) WR73 (7.9)
Collin Johnson WR83 (6.3) WR83 (7.2)
David Moore WR84 (6.2) WR78 (7.5)
Marvin Hall WR85 (6.1) WR93 (5.7)
Jalen Guyton WR86 (6.1) WR74 (7.7)
Hunter Renfrow WR87 (6.0) WR67 (8.7)
Trent Taylor WR88 (5.9) WR101 (4.0)
Mecole Hardman WR89 (5.8) WR60 (9.7) Season-high 13.6 xFPs Week 8. 31-of-47 routes.
DaeSean Hamilton WR90 (5.8) WR75 (7.6)
Henry Ruggs WR91 (5.8) WR58 (9.7) Under 9.0 xFPs in all 4 “healthy” games. WR5.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR92 (5.6) WR111 (3.5) Bad at the game. Lazard returning.
Tyler Johnson WR93 (5.6) WR71 (7.9)
Rashard Higgins WR94 (5.6) WR55 (10.0) 2.9 xFPs & 12% target share in Week 8. WR6.
Cedrick Wilson WR95 (5.3) WR124 (2.0)
Danny Amendola WR96 (5.3) WR76 (7.6)
Isaiah Wright WR97 (5.2) WR102 (4.0)
James Washington WR98 (5.2) WR94 (5.6)
Damiere Byrd WR99 (5.1) WR95 (5.4)
Golden Tate WR100 (5.0) WR68 (8.6) Droppable in 12-team leagues.

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Travis Kelce TE1 (15.5) TE1 (19.8) Has 2x the PPR points of the TE12 this season.
T.J. Hockenson TE2 (14.2) TE6 (13.4) 15.9, 11.3, & 15.2 xFPs in 3 games post-bye.
Darren Waller TE3 (13.3) TE4 (13.5) 25% target share (2nd) in last 4 weeks. The TE2.
Rob Gronkowski TE4 (13.2) TE2 (14.6) 17% target share in last 4 likely to drop. TE1/2.
Austin Hooper TE5 (12.5) TE8 (10.5) 13.0, 16.2, & 8.7 xFPs before surgery. TE1.
Noah Fant TE6 (12.4) TE16 (9.3) At least 9.7 xFPs in all six healthy games. TE1.
Mark Andrews TE7 (11.3) TE14 (9.3) 22% target share is a disappointment. Still TE1.
Evan Engram TE8 (11.3) TE13 (9.4) 3rd in routes. Usage trending up. Low-end TE1.
Jimmy Graham TE9 (11.0) TE27 (6.8) TE1/2 usage. TD-dependent in horrible offense.
Trey Burton TE10 (11.0) TE5 (13.4) Only 15-of-37 routes Week 8 but schemed open.
Hunter Henry TE11 (10.1) TE20 (8.3) LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight.
Eric Ebron TE12 (9.8) TE12 (9.5) TD-dependent on 17% target share. TE2.
Albert Okwuegbunam TE13 (9.2) TE17 (9.1) Only 15-of-48 routes Week 8 with Fant healthy.
Jared Cook TE14 (9.2) TE3 (13.8) Season-high 13.0 xFPs Week 8 without MT/ES.
Hayden Hurst TE15 (9.2) TE9 (10.4) 2nd in TE routes. 6.0 targets per game in last 4.
Ross Dwelley TE16 (8.5) TE19 (8.6) Season-high 8.5 xFPs Week 8. Jordan Reed?
Anthony Firkser TE17 (8.4) TE11 (9.6) Off the radar when Jonnu is healthy.
Jonnu Smith TE18 (8.4) TE15 (9.3) 8.3 & 2.9 xFPs in last 2 with AJB & CD balling.
Gerald Everett TE19 (7.8) TE18 (8.8) Week 8 routes: Everett (29), Higbee (24). TE2/3.
Dalton Schultz TE20 (7.5) TE28 (6.2) TE2 usage as backup TE with backup QB.
Logan Thomas TE21 (7.0) TE10 (10.2) Produced but 7.9 & 7.1 xFPs in last 2 games.
Irv Smith TE22 (6.7) TE22 (7.5) 15-of-18 Week 8 routes with low-end TE2 usage.
Tyler Eifert TE23 (6.6) TE54 (2.3)
Robert Tonyan TE24 (6.2) TE21 (7.9) 26-of-50 Week 8 routes. TDs only with Adams.
Mike Gesicki TE25 (6.1) TE32 (5.3) Slot WR Ford trade improves Gesicki’s outlook.
Greg Olsen TE26 (5.5) TE56 (2.3)
Darren Fells TE27 (5.4) TE7 (11.4)
Jace Sternberger TE28 (5.2) TE23 (7.5)
Harrison Bryant TE29 (4.9) TE24 (7.3) 23-of-30 Week 8 routes. Hooper returning. Drop.
Durham Smythe TE30 (4.9) TE31 (5.5)
Richard Rodgers TE31 (4.9) TE29 (5.9)
Tyler Higbee TE32 (4.8) TE33 (5.1) 30th in TE routes in 2020.
Jack Doyle TE33 (4.7) TE25 (7.2)
Will Dissly TE34 (4.3) TE30 (5.8)
Cameron Brate TE35 (4.2) TE34 (4.5)


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Alvin Kamara RB1 (22.9) RB3 (22.7) 18.9+ xFPs in all 7 games. 126-catch pace.
Dalvin Cook RB2 (22.4) RB1 (34.3) The RB2 overall moving forward.
Myles Gaskin RB3 (22.0) RB7 (17.3) The Fantasy Usage Model hero is going to IR.
Joe Mixon RB4 (21.8) RB15 (15.2) 24.0 xFPs P/G in last 3 healthy games.
David Montgomery RB5 (21.2) RB17 (14.4) Knock his speed all you want. RB1 usage. RB2.
Josh Jacobs RB6 (19.9) RB20 (13.8) Touch shares: Leading (55%), trailing (15%).
James Robinson RB7 (19.2) RB5 (19.0) xFPs P/G: With Thompson (14.9), without (23.5).
David Johnson RB8 (18.8) RB16 (14.9) All 18 touches in Week 7 came in 1st/2nd down.
Derrick Henry RB9 (18.6) RB2 (23.0) Pacing for 368 carries. Is that sustainable?
Leonard Fournette RB10 (18.5) RB26 (12.9) 21.4 & 15.7 xFPs in last 2. RoJo keeps fumbling.
James Conner RB11 (17.9) RB11 (15.4) RB1/2 usage in near bellcow role.
Todd Gurley RB12 (17.8) RB8 (16.9) Iffy speed but 13.4+ xFPs in all 8 games. RB1/2.
DeeJay Dallas RB13 (17.7) RB21 (13.8) xFPs: Week 7 (4.6), Week 8 (30.8).
Ezekiel Elliott RB14 (16.6) RB24 (13.5) xFPs P/G: Weeks 1-6 (24.2), Weeks 7-8 (12.1).
Darrell Henderson RB15 (16.5) RB29 (12.5) Removed Week 8. Early-down RB2/3.
Mike Davis RB16 (16.4) RB14 (15.2) Quality RB1/2 fill in for CMC. Insurance only now.
Kareem Hunt RB17 (16.3) RB23 (13.6) Chubb could be back Week 10, meaning RB2/3.
Kenyan Drake RB18 (16.0) RB10 (15.6) Pure runner on bad ankle if he’s a surprise active.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB19 (15.8) RB27 (12.8) Season-low 9.4 xFPs Week 8. Still the 1A.
Jamaal Williams RB20 (15.8) RB22 (13.7) RB1 run likely over. Elite insurance. Bench hold.
Devonta Freeman RB21 (15.7) RB32 (11.7) Was seeing RB2 usage before injury. Gallman?
D’Andre Swift RB22 (15.6) RB9 (15.8) Week 8 snaps: Swift (38/61), AP (12), KJ (11).
Melvin Gordon RB23 (14.6) RB25 (13.4) Lindsay only a pure rusher. Gordon is a RB2/3.
Ronald Jones RB24 (14.5) RB12 (15.2) RB3 usage with Fournette. Fumbled Week 8.
Justin Jackson RB25 (13.9) RB19 (14.0) Inconsistent RB3 with Kelley and Pope involved.
Antonio Gibson RB26 (13.8) RB28 (12.8) Post-Bye Rookie Bump? Was a pure runner only.
Giovani Bernard RB27 (13.1) RB18 (14.2) Low-end RB1 insurance when Mixon misses.
Jonathan Taylor RB28 (13.0) RB31 (12.0) Having Trent Richardson-like season. RB2/3.
Miles Sanders RB29 (12.8) RB4 (21.1) Should return to top-8 RB levels following bye.
Raheem Mostert RB30 (11.9) RB30 (12.3) Injured reserve. Coleman, Wilson both hurt.
Boston Scott RB31 (11.1) RB42 (7.8) Low-end RB1 insurance when Sanders misses.
Chase Edmonds RB32 (10.4) RB13 (15.2) RB1 if Drake misses. Outplaying him in general.
Joshua Kelley RB33 (10.3) RB51 (6.2) Week 8 snaps: JJ (41), Pope (25), Kelley (21).
Gus Edwards RB34 (10.3) RB39 (8.6) All 17 Week 8 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB3.
Nyheim Hines RB35 (10.1) RB33 (11.3) 2 TDs in Week 8 but only 11.9 xFPs. PPR RB3.
J.D. McKissic RB36 (10.1) RB35 (10.8) Could lose passing role to Gibson post-bye.
Alexander Mattison RB37 (9.9) RB46 (7.1)
Jeff Wilson RB38 (9.4) RB6 (17.4)
J.K. Dobbins RB39 (9.0) RB38 (8.8) 1st in YAC, broken tackles per carry, YPC. RB3.
Devin Singletary RB40 (8.9) RB49 (6.7) Only seeing 2.3 “high value touches” per game.
Latavius Murray RB41 (8.8) RB48 (6.8)
Lamical Perine RB42 (8.7) RB41 (8.1)
Phillip Lindsay RB43 (8.4) RB34 (11.2)
Malcolm Brown RB44 (8.3) RB53 (6.0)
JaMycal Hasty RB45 (8.1) RB44 (7.4)
James White RB46 (8.1) RB45 (7.4)
Zack Moss RB47 (8.1) RB36 (10.4) Week 8 xFPs: Moss (14.5), Singletary (8.3).
Troymaine Pope RB48 (8.0) RB43 (7.6)
Tony Pollard RB49 (7.9) RB58 (5.7)
Wayne Gallman RB50 (7.8) RB40 (8.5) 14.3 & 9.9 xFPs in two games without Freeman.
Adrian Peterson RB51 (7.5) RB50 (6.3)
Brian Hill RB52 (7.2) RB47 (6.8)
Samaje Perine RB53 (7.2) RB54 (6.0)
Chris Thompson RB54 (6.9) RB56 (5.9)
Damien Harris RB55 (6.7) RB37 (9.5) Only NE RB with inside-10 touch Week 8. RB3.
Duke Johnson RB56 (6.7) RB62 (4.7)
Le’Veon Bell RB57 (6.1) RB60 (5.4) Week 8 snaps: Edwards-Helaire (33), Bell (17).
Jerick McKinnon RB58 (6.0) RB61 (5.3) We’re tired. He’s tired. Only 10.0 xFPs Week 8.
Jeremy McNichols RB59 (6.0) RB65 (4.4)
Frank Gore RB60 (6.0) RB57 (5.8)
Jordan Wilkins RB61 (5.5) RB52 (6.1) Season-high 14.1 xFPs Week 8. Better than JT?


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 9

Part 1: High-Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks