With tampering so legal it would make your head spin, the Falcons nabbed free agency’s biggest fish 87 minutes into the official “negotiating” period on Monday, lavishing a “Daniel Jones plus” deal on Kirk Cousins. The initial numbers are four years, $180 million, with $100 million guaranteed. He’s due $90 million the first two seasons, putting him behind only Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson in terms of two-year cash flow. In other words, Captain Contract Kirk has done it again as he continues to run Darrelle Revis circles around helpless front offices.
So that’s the money aspect. What about on the field? We know all about the Falcons’ weapons, but this is going to be a very different offense than the one Arthur Smith squandered. In theory, this will be new OC Zac Robinson’s system — Robinson is the latest, greatest Sean McVay disciple — but let’s be real: This is the Cousins system. That means pass first, think later, even with running backs like Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier at the ready.
It also stands to reason (Zac) Robinson won’t upset the apple cart fellow McVay protege Kevin O’Connell so carefully steadied in Minnesota. Cousins is going to be allowed to do what Cousins wants to do, and that is play point guard with his stable of weapons. Drake London/Kyle Pitts/Bijan Robinson isn’t Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison/T.J. Hockenson, but it’s more than a lot of quarterbacks have at their disposal.
London was the WR47 by average PPR points last season because he was 25th in receiver targets at 109 despite appearing in 16 games. A most conservative estimate has that number jumping into the 130-140 range. 150-160 is eminently plausible because of the lack of compelling competition in the isolated receiver group. Although London isn’t the separator and space creator Jefferson is, their NextGenStats numbers weren’t hugely different on that front in 2023. Cousins is also comfortable with tight-window throws, checking in middle of the pack before getting hurt last season. The volume is indeed coming for the 2022 first-rounder.
With Pitts it’s a little less certain, but both the Cousins and McVay “systems” have never been shy about targeting the seam. Pitts is 100 percent this offseason after claiming he was never truly healthy coming back from his torn MCL amidst last year’s Art debacle. Pitts drew 89 targets in 17 games. Plainly inexcusable, especially since that number was 110 Pitts’ healthy rookie campaign. Not even further underachievement could keep Pitts below 100 looks with Cousins at the controls, while 110-120 is probably the most likely outcome. Pitts will see more overall targets and with Cousins actually moving the offense, the former phenom tight end might actually start seeing red zone usage and the attendant touchdowns.
Last but not least is (Bijan) Robinson, who has the kind of three-down profile set to go “Gurley Mode” in a McVay-style offense. McVay and company have been comfortable with both approaches — three-down back or committee — but McVay and O’Connell have always tended to funnel extreme touch totals to their best players. That’s Robinson and it’s not close, and Cousins always dished out enough RB targets to Dalvin Cook. Famous last words, but Robinson’s workload seems too big to fail.
All of this adds up to low-end QB1 value for a quarterback in Cousins who will have weapons and attempts, but probably neither at quite the level he had the past two years in Minnesota. This profiles as a better running game and better defense. Minnesota’s 2023 D didn’t get on track until after Cousins’ injury, which, oh by the way, he’s returning from a torn achilles’ tendon for his age-36 season. Fantasy mangers are going to want more of Cousins’ supporting cast than Cousins, but The Domed One will be ready to do his duty if you miss out on the truly elite options.