Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 14 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 16. All of these matchups are, of course, subject to wonky game script that could nullify any trends in how a defense is being best exploited.
Run Funnel Defenses
Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith’s failing squad has slowly but surely become a run funnel defense, a trend that has accelerated over the past month. Falcons opponents are running the ball at a league-high 55 percent rate in neutral game script since Week 10. They’re now the NFL’s third most extreme run funnel, behind only the Jets and their Week 16 opponent, the Colts.
There is a caveat, however: Atlanta has been nails against the run all season, and especially since Week 9. Only three teams have allowed a lower rush EPA and six teams have given up a lower rushing success rate than the Falcons over the past seven weeks. They are the rare run funnel that has largely shut down the run.
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What it means for Week 16: Jonathan Taylor is practicing in full and Zack Moss has missed practice so far this week with a forearm injury. Theoretically this sets up nicely for Taylor upon yet another return to the Colts lineup.
Without Taylor, the Colts have gone pass heavy. Only the Chiefs, Browns, and Packers have a higher pass rate over expected than Indy over the past four weeks. And it’s mostly worked: The Colts have the league’s 12th highest EPA per play over that span. Look no further than Week 7 against the Browns — when the Colts were a stunning 15 percent under their expected drop back rate — to see how Shane Steichen runs the offense with Taylor healthy. The Colts were 9 percent below their expected drop back rate against the Panthers in Week 9, with Taylor seeing 18 rushes.
UPDATE: Zack Moss (forearm) has been ruled out for Week 16.
We should expect at least a balanced approach from the Colts in Week 16 against the run-funnel Falcons. If game script goes right for Indy, it could be a hugely run-heavy approach that fuels touch-based upside for Taylor (or Moss, or both). Indianapolis has a 50 percent pass rate while leading since Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback, the 12th lowest in the league.
New York Jets
With what is perhaps the most terrifying coverage unit in the NFL, the Jets remain a locked-and-loaded run funnel defense. On the season, in fact, no team is a more pronounced run funnel. Jets opponents have a 47 percent neutral pass rate, the lowest in the league.
Even the pass-first Dolphins have turned toward the ground game against Gang Green. Miami was 2 percent below its expected drop back rate in two games against the Jets this season.
What it means for Week 16: In what could be the single ugliest game in the history of organized sport, we could finally — maybe — see the pass-always Commanders take a balanced or even a run-first approach against the Jets. It wouldn’t be the first time the Commanders established the run: In five games this season, Washington has a drop back rate over expected of 0 percent or less.
Brian Robinson could be back this week after logging limited practices on his way back from a Week 13 hamstring injury. Robinson, who operated as the team’s primary early-down back before the injury, would figure to benefit most from a run-first attack against the Jets. The Commanders haven’t hesitated to feed Robinson when game script is on their side: He’s averaging 16.5 rushes in wins (and 10.5 in losses).
B-Rob also has 11 of the team’s 14 running back carries inside the ten yard line this season. He qualifies as a definitively sneaky option in Week 16. If Robinson sits, look for rookie Chris Rodriguez — who last week had 10 of Washington’s 15 running back carries — to slot in and become sneaky himself.
Pass Funnel Defenses
Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Bucs
I’m lumping these teams together because, as you may have guessed, they’re playing each other in a no-holds-bar battle of northern/central Florida teams in Week 16.
Jacksonville, as I’ve mentioned time and again in this space, is among the most reliable pass funnels, with the Eagles and Niners ranking as the only defenses with more pronounced pass funnel tendencies. Tampa, meanwhile, is just behind the Jaguars in pass-funnel rank, though Bucs opponents have been more willing to attack the team’s rush defense with various injuries taking away key players in the Tampa front seven.
Bucs opponents have the league’s fourth highest neutral pass rate since Week 9. Last week, the Packers were 5 percent above their expected drop back rate against Tampa, leading to 39 Jordan Love attempts. And in a miracle to eclipse all miracles, the Atlanta Arthur Smiths were 2 percent above their expected drop back rate in Week 13 against these Bucs. If Tampa made Smith capitulate, they could do it to anyone.
That the Bucs have a 55 percent neutral pass rate since Week 9 is a touch concerning if we’re projecting this game to be a pass-heavy back-and-forth affair. Against the Panthers, Falcons, and Packers over the past three weeks, Tampa is 5 percent under its expected drop back rate. That’s quite the shift from early in the season when the Bucs were regularly 3-6 percent above that rate.
What it means for Week 16: Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram are the only sure things in this Jacksonville passing offense, and only if Trevor Lawrence (concussion) is able to play. But an inflated pass total could be a boon for tertiary pass-catching options like Parker Washington or even Jamal Agnew, a big play wideout who can’t be relied on to run more than about half the routes even with Zay Jones and Christian Kirk out of the picture. Ridley and Engram could both see double digit looks against the Bucs though. Parker Washington figures to be a full-time player in three-receiver sets, and could surprise for PPR purposes in a shootout.
Chris Godwin, I suppose, is in line for another load of targets if the Jaguars remain a pass funnel (they failed in this capacity last week against Baltimore, as readers of this column might recall). Godwin, incredibly and out of nowhere, has seen 42 percent of the team’s targets and 46 percent of the air yards since his wife griped about his usage following Week 13. Godwin has been targeted on 42 percent of his pass routes over Tampa’s past two outings, up from a meager 22 percent from Week 1-13. That shift has been dramatic.
Obviously Mike Evans figures into things, and Cade Otton — running as many routes as any tight end in the league — could benefit from a pass volume spike against the Jaguars. The Bucs sport the NFL’s fourth highest pass rate over expected inside the 20 yard line.
Chicago Bears
Bears opponents since Week 10 — when Chicago’s defense began showing major improvements — have passed at a hearty 66 percent clip in neutral game script (when the game is within seven points either way). That’s the highest mark in the league over the past six weeks.
Last week we saw the Flacco-led Browns go 9 percent over their expected drop back rate against the Bears. In two games against the Bears this season, the Lions had a 63 percent drop back rate -- well above their season-long rate of 58 percent. Only eight teams have been a more pronounced pass funnel than the Bears in 2023.
What it means for Week 16: Though the Cardinals have been stubbornly run heavy since Kyler Murray’s inglorious return to action, they might have no choice but to drop back and sling it against the pass-funnel Bears.
That should be enough to keep the PPR scam going for Trey McBride, who has a dominant 32 percent target share over Arizona’s past three games (he has 20 targets, no one else has more than six). It might also keep Murray, with at least six rushes in four of his five starts, alive as a viable starter in 12-team leagues.
Philadelphia Eagles
This wouldn’t be a Funnel Defense Report without our sweet, sweet Eagles, the league’s second most extreme pass funnel on the season. And no team has faced a higher neutral pass rate (65 percent) than Philly in 2023.
What it means for Week 16: Tommy DeVito and the vibes-based Giants enter this week as eye-watering underdogs (13.5 points) against the struggling Eagles. Just imagine what the line would be if the Eagles had beaten anyone recently.
The G-people should be forced to drop back quite a bit in this one. The Giants aren’t exactly an air-it-out offense, but they have been pass-curious since DeVito’s breakout game against Washington in Week 11. New York is 5 percent over its expected drop back rate since then. Last week against the Saints, the Giants dropped back at a 77 percent clip while trailing. Darius Slayton led the team with a 21 percent target share (8 targets) while Darren Waller was second with a 13 percent share (5 targets).
Waller, in his first game back from a two and a half month hamstring injury, had limited route participation (51 percent), as one might expect. Fourteen of Waller’s 23 pass routes originated from the slot. On the season, he’s running about half of his routes from the slot. That could be an outsized factor in Week 16, since the Eagles give up the second highest target share to slot pass catchers and have been ripped in the middle of the field for much of the season. Just last week, the little-used Seahawks tight ends saw eight targets against these Eagles. That makes Waller interesting, at least.