Earlier this week, I published my Week 15 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
Sign up to stream the NFL Holiday Exclusive between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers, only on Peacock, Saturday, Dec. 23 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Visit PeacockTV.com/NFL for more details.
NOTE 1.0: If you had a chance to check out my Snap Report from earlier in the week, you may remember it was short on words as I am currently away with my family on a safari/beach trip to Kenya. With two days of safari action down and one to go, I am now actively grinding expected points data in the middle of the Maasai Mara National Reserve as you, the reader, are roughly seven hours away from watching the Rams take on the Saints in a Thursday night contest I’ll be tilting in my sleep — I have a best ball team that nobody cares about trying to advance to Week 17 for a shot at $50,000.
As promised in my previous article, I’ve decided to include a few pictures of what I’ve seen thus far. The expected points data you’ve also come to know and love is also available in the tables below.
Our trip has been incredible, to say the least. We are staying at a resort called the Zebra Plains Mara Camp, which lies in the middle of the national reserve — there are several other camps that do as well. An electric face and a few high fences are all that separates us from the wildlife around. We made it 100 yards from our camp before we spotted a handful of zebras and giraffes indulging in their morning meal, and made our way around the reserve for six hours, coming across several lions, hippos, elephants, gazelles, cheetahs, ostriches, and many others. Nothing is cooler than seeing these animals up close and in their natural habitat. Our tour guide is equally as impressive. Having worked as a safari tour guide for 20-plus years — something he learned from his father — our guide has seen a lot and knows the plains and those within it inside and out.
We closed out the day with a picnic in the reserve — after confirming there were no Detroit Lions in the vicinity.
Below are some pictures (from our last two days; I’m hoping to add videos to my social media once I come across a strong connection. I’ll also be investing in a quality camera the next time I go on a trip like this rather than rely on my phone. Thank you for still checking out this week’s expected points article; I will be back with more amended versions of the snap report and expected points article next week while at Diani Beach and later Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
NOTE 2.0: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 15 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 28.8 | -0.3 | 28.5 |
| Devin Singletary | HOU | 23.7 | -2.7 | 21.0 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | 21.9 | -3.6 | 18.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 20.3 | 21.4 | 41.7 |
| James Cook | BUF | 19.1 | 17 | 36.1 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | 19 | 5.7 | 24.7 |
| Zamir White | LV | 17.8 | -0.3 | 17.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 16.4 | -4.6 | 11.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 16.3 | -0.3 | 16.0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 16.3 | 3.8 | 20.1 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | 16.3 | -2.4 | 13.9 |
| D’Andre Swift | PHI | 15.5 | -6 | 9.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 15.4 | -3.1 | 12.3 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 15.4 | -10.4 | 5.0 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | 15.3 | -4.4 | 10.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | 14.1 | -4.5 | 9.6 |
| James Conner | ARI | 13.9 | 6 | 19.9 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 13.7 | 1.4 | 15.1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | 13.6 | 6.6 | 20.2 |
| Travis Etienne | JAC | 13.2 | -3.3 | 9.9 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 12.9 | 9 | 21.9 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 11.6 | -1.4 | 10.2 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | 11 | 5.2 | 16.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 10.7 | -2.9 | 7.8 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | 10.3 | -3.2 | 7.1 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr | WAS | 10 | -6.5 | 3.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 9.8 | 15 | 24.8 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | 9.5 | 0.5 | 10.0 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | 9.5 | -1.8 | 7.7 |
| Tyler Goodson | IND | 9.4 | 0.5 | 9.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | WAS | 9.3 | -0.8 | 8.5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | 8.9 | -1.9 | 7.0 |
| Trey Sermon | IND | 8.8 | 0 | 8.8 |
| Isaiah Spiller | LAC | 8.6 | -3.6 | 5.0 |
| D’Onta Foreman | CHI | 8.5 | -9.1 | -0.6 |
Wide Receivers
Week 15 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Davante Adams | LV | 20 | 4.1 | 24.1 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 19 | -10.1 | 8.9 |
| Curtis Samuel | WAS | 18.6 | 2.5 | 21.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 18.4 | 0.2 | 18.6 |
| Noah Brown | HOU | 18.2 | 4 | 22.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 18.1 | 8 | 26.1 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 17.9 | 7.6 | 25.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 16.4 | -1 | 15.4 |
| Amon-Ra St Brown | DET | 16.1 | 8.1 | 24.2 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 15.5 | 8.6 | 24.1 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 15.2 | -4.9 | 10.3 |
| AJ Brown | PHI | 15.1 | -4.5 | 10.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 14.8 | 13.4 | 28.2 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | 14.4 | -11 | 3.4 |
| Zay Jones | JAC | 14.1 | -3.2 | 10.9 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | 14 | -9.9 | 4.1 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 13.9 | 3.3 | 17.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 13.9 | -8.8 | 5.1 |
| Amari Cooper | CLE | 13.7 | 7.2 | 20.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 13.7 | 11.4 | 25.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | 13.6 | 2.2 | 15.8 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 13.6 | 8.5 | 22.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 13.4 | 8.5 | 21.9 |
| Cedric Tillman | CLE | 13 | -3.8 | 9.2 |
| Adam Thielen | CAR | 12.4 | -4.1 | 8.3 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | 12.3 | -2 | 10.3 |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 12.1 | -2.9 | 9.2 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 11.7 | 4 | 15.7 |
| George Pickens | PIT | 11.1 | -3.4 | 7.7 |
| Parker Washington | JAC | 11.1 | -5.9 | 5.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | 11 | -0.6 | 10.4 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | 10.9 | 5.3 | 16.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | 10.9 | 4.8 | 15.7 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 10.9 | -2.2 | 8.7 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | 10.6 | 18.5 | 29.1 |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | 10.3 | 2.5 | 12.8 |
Tight Ends
Week 15 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| David Njoku | CLE | 25.3 | 1.1 | 26.4 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 19.4 | 0.2 | 19.6 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | 17.6 | 2.6 | 20.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 13.9 | 14.7 | 28.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 13.1 | -6 | 7.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 12.7 | -2.3 | 10.4 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 12.2 | -4.4 | 7.8 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | 12 | -2.9 | 9.1 |
| TJ Hockenson | MIN | 11.6 | 0.7 | 12.3 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | 11.1 | 2.2 | 13.3 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 10.7 | 5 | 15.7 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | 10 | -0.1 | 9.9 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | 9.9 | 8.1 | 18.0 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | 9.8 | -4 | 5.8 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | 9.4 | 4.5 | 13.9 |