Underdog opened Tuesday Night with a “Quarterbacks Only” approach to laying out the Week 2 props board, listing a dozen quarterbacks before finally bringing in skill position players for the Thursday Night Kansas vs. Illinois game and Wake vs. Vandy. In addition, a good portion of the opening lines were noticeably low in an attempt to induce overs. It worked, as many of those opening QB lines have spiked, as noted below.
Connor Weigman, QB, Texas A&M - Over 229.5 Passing Yards
Weigman was masterful in Week 1, as the true sophomore pilots an extremely talented Aggies offense that could be dangerous under new OC Bobby Petrino. I have been high on Weigman all offseason and have drafted him in several CFF formats, with his 236-yard, five touchdown performance against New Mexico last week providing a glimpse of what this Texas A&M offense can do. The market has moved from A&M favored by (-7.5) down to (-4.5) as the public leans towards the home team in Miami. I think we see a competitive contest in which Weigman will be forced to throw more than last week, which means Weigman easily clears 229.5 passing yards in an Aggies victory.
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Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado - Over 297.5 Passing Yards
In addition to his 2,650 season passing yardage total, the Shedeur Sanders 183.5 Passing Yards opening line was the single most mispriced line of Week 1, and was a major ladder candidate even after settling at 220.5 at kickoff. I had the Shedeur passing yardage over as a best bet on the Saturday Q&A live show on the NBC Sports YouTube channel, and profited greatly from it.
Before Colorado upset TCU, the game line was set at Colorado (+8.5), it’s now sitting at CU (-3). Interestingly, the total dropped from 60.5 to 58.5, with the market putting stock in Nebraska’s snail-paced 13-10 loss to Minnesota as a sign of a much more deliberate pace that we saw in TCU/CU. However I think we see OC Sean Lewis’ offense continue to push the pace and force Nebraska into a chase position where they have to ramp it up to stay in the game. CU isn’t stopping for anyone and after Shedeur put up 510 passing yards against TCU, i’m betting he can clear 297.5 against Nebraska as well.
Will Rogers, QB, Mississippi State vs. Arizona - Under 277.5 Passing Yards (Opened at 283.5)
MSU cruised in Week 1 against an overmatched FCS team and now welcomes the Arizona Wildcats to Starkville in a rerun of their 39-17 victory over the WIldcats last year. However with new OC Kevin Barbay (App St. OC ‘22/C. Mich ‘21) now calling plays, we saw a much more traditional play calling structure as opposed to the air raid principles of former HC Mike Leach (RIP). They called 39 run plays to 29 pass plays, racking up 298 rushing yards on 39 carries. That represents a stark departure from last year when they ranked dead last nationally in run ratio. The Bulldogs now take on an Arizona team that ranked 126th against the run and last in FBS with a 53.3% success rate allowed on defense.
With Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright running 5 Wildcat-esque plays that accounted for 95 rushing yards, the identity shift of this team is clear. Mississippi State isn’t running the air raid anymore, but the market is pricing it like they are. Take the extra 6 yards of line value after it moved from 277.5-to-283.5 and bet the Under.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington - Over 299.5 Passing Yards
I had the pleasure of watching Penix Jr. throw as one of the camp counselors for the Elite 11 Finals this summer. Standing next to the other 2 senior counselors Taulia Tagovailoa and Jayden Daniels, Penix Jr. stood out in terms of his frame, physique and arm strength
After hanging 450 yards and five touchdowns on a pretty respectable Boise State defense, i’m surprised we’re still seeing Penix Jr. under the tri-centennial. Especially considering he faces a Tulsa team that returns just 9 total starters and allowed 30+ points in 8-of-12 games last season.
Don’t overthink this one, take Penix Jr. over 299.5 and maybe ladder it if the juice is right when the market matures.
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Bo Nix, QB, Oregon @ Texas Tech - Over 254.5 Passing Yards (Opened at 243.5)
Tyler Shough, QB, Texas Tech vs. Oregon - Over 260.5 Passing Yards (Opened at 243.5)
This line opened at 243.5 but boosted to 252.5 before getting taken down and reposed at 254.5. I don’t think it’s stopped going up, as Oregon cleared 270 passing yards in 8 of their last 9 regular season games in 2022 and Nix is an outside Heisman-contender who has a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. On the other side, Texas Tech played at the fastest pace in the country last year on a per-play basis (85.6 plays per game) under the tutelage of OC Zach Kittley’s lightning fast offense. Though OT juiced the stats a bit, Shough threw a ridiculous 47 passes for 338 yards against a clock-siphoning Wyoming that ran 58.5 plays per game in 2022, the 3rd fewest plays per game in FBS.
What do you think happens when Oregon’s offense that averaged 39 PPG last year and just hung 81 points on poor Portland State, meets Texas Tech’s offense that returns 10 starters in year 2 of OC Kittley and will be scraping and clawing to avoid starting the season 0-2. I see shootout potential with both QBs dueling, which is why we have to grab these inflated lines before they continue to rise.
Other Notable Early Line Movements:
Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State - Opened at 224.5 Passing Yards, currently 245.5 Passing Yards
Mitch Griffis, QB, Wake Forest - Opened at 252.5 Passing Yards, currently 266.5 Passing Yards = 13 yards
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina - Opened at 244.5 Passing Yards, currently at 263.5 Passing Yards
