The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Understanding the Slate
Theoretically speaking, we can’t build for a target if we don’t understand what the target is. In other words, reading the slate before beginning the roster construction process will guide the decision-making process as we start to build rosters on a given slate. On the Week 6 main slate, there were only really three quarterbacks that could put up a score you couldn’t win without (Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Jayden Daniels) and there were only four tight ends that could do the same (Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, and Jake Ferguson). Furthermore, there were only three teams we truly had to account for on every roster: Ravens, Commanders, and Cowboys. The Ravens and Commanders played in the game with the highest game total on the slate while the Cowboys and Lions played in another shootout, albeit with a Lions team far from concentrated. With so few top-tier options that had legitimate chances to put the slate out of reach, it was much more likely to be a lower-scoring slate in totality. That opens the door to roster construction tendencies like team over-stacks, value quarterbacks and tight ends, and balanced roster construction. We will discuss two of those points below.
Team Over-Stack with Leverage
A team over-stack is a way to manage variance in a highly variant game. Think about it, even with the Buccaneers scoring 51 points against the Saints in Week 6, they returned only three scores that were in “had to have it” range: Baker Mayfield and his 31.90 DK points, Chris Godwin and his 38.50 DK points, and the Buccaneers D/ST and their 17.00 DK points. But the state of the slate opened up the opportunity to execute team over-stacks due to the high likelihood of reduced raw point scores needed to win. I personally discussed a Drake Maye + Demario Douglas + Hunter Henry over-stack by following this same thought process. The leverage comes through the inclusion of the tight end and the small amount of salary allocated to three (or more) positions on the roster. Those thoughts only come into play by first assessing the state of the slate, which we should strive to do before constructing rosters. On rbx88’s $555 Millionaire Maker winning roster, they included the Tampa Bay lead back and tight end with the three-person primary of Mayfield, Godwin, and Cade Otton, which, again, is only possible if we first diagnose the slate.
Balance in Roster Construction
You’ll notice that DraftKings user rbx88 failed to utilize any player priced above $7,000 on their winning roster this week, which is a roster construction process that feels uncomfortable. We know humans crave stability and comfort, making this process directly deviant from basic human nature, a psychological aspect of DFS that naturally generates meaningful leverage. It feels uncomfortable to “fade” the players priced in the upper echelon of player pricing because those are the players with the best combination of weekly floor and ceiling within their respective ranges of outcomes. And yet, each player is given a range of outcomes for a reason as any given slate can find players finishing in the bottom 20% of their respective range of outcomes. For the Week 6 main slate, it just so happened that all the top-tier options failed to hit the top 50% of their respective ranges of outcomes on the same week.
Looking Ahead
The Slate Ahead
The Week 7 main slate currently includes 14 teams of 20 total with a Vegas implied team total more than 21.0 points, meaning we are likely to see higher scores required to win GPPs this week. As discussed above, this is the starting point of the roster construction process, removing the viability of roster construction techniques like team over-stacks. In other words, just because something worked last week does not mean it falls under optimal process moving forward. Each slate is its own entity, and the starting point is to first analyze the target goal.
Tight Player Pricing
Even with the required score needed to win likely higher in Week 7, player pricing remains tight. That means that value is of the utmost importance. The thing with value is that we still require a value piece to have a viable path to 25+ fantasy points as we can’t afford to sacrifice ceiling on any roster spot. In Week 7, Jakobi Meyers and JuJu Smith-Schuster stand out as potential value options that can open up salary for the remainder of the roster, making both highly interesting as things currently stand. The Raiders play a Rams team allowing the fifth most total yards per game and just traded Davante Adams to the Jets while Smith-Schuster appeared to operate in the vacated Rashee Rice role in the second half of their Week 5 game against the Saints prior to their bye week. After two full weeks of practice in post-Rice Kansas City, I expect Smith-Schuster’s role to grow for the team’s showdown with the 49ers.
Andy Dalton + Chuba Hubbard + Diontae Johnson
Continuing the discussion on tight player pricing and the state of the Week 7 slate brings credence to a value stack in a solid matchup with the Panthers. Hubbard and Johnson have combined for almost 60% of the team’s total offense with Dalton under center. With Jonathon Brooks likely seeing his 21-day practice window opened this week, it is likely we get one or two more games with Hubbard as the primary option in the Carolina backfield. We’re ideally hunting for three combined touchdowns between the two primary skill position players against a defense allowing a 22nd-ranked 24.2 points per game this season. The trio costs $18,300 in salary, leaving us needing 73.2 DK points to keep you on a 200-point pace in Week 7, or 24.4 per player, well within their range of outcomes in this matchup.
