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FPL Price Guide: First Impressions, Part I

Aymeric Laporte

Aymeric Laporte

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Greetings, folks. The excitement here is going to be difficult to control. This is my first column of the new season and it should be plenty of fun.

Are you familiar with “Unboxing” videos found on the likes of YouTube? If not, the concept is rather simple. Someone records themselves opening a new box of something and discovering its contents, giving a sincere reaction to whatever they might find. These videos can range from opening packs of baseball cards to, what seems to be the most popular version of this concept, opening Kinder Eggs to see what toys are found inside.

Well, that is what is going on here today...in print form, anyway. So the new FPL season went live a couple of days ago, and the natural tendency is to get in and tinker with a squad right away. Now, I am aware about some position changes to some major FPL assets this season and I have had the slightest of peeks at the site, so I may have seen a few prices along the way. But, consider this akin to carefully opening a crease in the wrapping paper of a Christmas present and getting a slight hint of a view of what is inside. That is about as “informed” as I am going into this.

The main point of this column is to have a bit of fun and take things lightly as we look at our new toys. Fear not, the headaches and critical analysis of FPL management lingers not far from now. Save your energy, it is a long season. Today, let’s just enjoy ripping the wrapping paper off and I will tell you what catches my eye. Flying by the seat of my pants with this concept, I think I will go position-by-position and start with keepers. That should make for a nice buildup to the headline-grabbing attackers. Remember how your parents would make you wait to open the extra-large present last? They knew how this works. You have to build up to these things. So let’s take a look at the goalkeepers this season…

*Edit - I am here, post-"unboxing”, to let you know this column got longer than expected, which is a good thing. Today, we will look at goalkeepers and defenders. Tomorrow, we will finish up with midfielders and forwards. It is a two-parter!

Goalkeepers

For me, if continuing with a Christmas analogy, this is the equivalent of seeing what you got in your stocking. Sure, you are curious. There might be some decent candy in there. But you know this is just the appetizer. My attitude toward keepers remains one of the most-cemented philosophies I’ve maintained in FPL - buy a cheap one. One will always emerge as among the league-leaders in points by the end of the season. Conversely, the high-priced keepers consistently finish all over the leaderboard. So I know going into this, as soon as I see an expensive keeper, I toss him out of the equation. Take last season for example. I think, if prices played no part in this game, if we were to build our team through a draft, Alisson would be the first name off of the board. I mean, even if you had knowledge before last season started that Liverpool would run away with the title and would concede the fewest goals of any club in the league, you would not hesitate to rank him 1st. What is the worst he could finish? Third?

Well, he finished tenth. TENTH - the definition of “average”. Vicente Guaita and Mathew Ryan outscored the Reds shot-stopper. And we see this happen - every. single. year.

So who do we have at 6m this season, because they are immediately out of my thinking, unless using a Free Hit or planning a double gameweek…

Two keepers going for 6m - Alisson and Ederson. No surprises here. Again, these are the keepers for the two strongest clubs, featuring the two best defensive records last season. Neither finished in the top 8 among FPL keepers last time around. Why would I pay a premium for mediocrity? That is a hard pass.

The 5.5m class does not dazzle me, either. Six players to choose from in this bracket, all comprising keepers from the clubs that finished directly behind the top two. Hugo Lloris, Kasper Schmeichel and Rui Patrício all seem appropriately priced, but still too rich for my blood. It is interesting to see David De Gea, once considered the best keeper in the league, bar none, is now not even the most expensive keeper on his own team, with Dean Henderson returning from loan at the same price. Seems Henderson should be given a 5m tag to me. And then there is Nick Pope, last season’s top scorer at the position. That is the reasoning behind a rise in his starting price from last season and is also the reason I will be avoiding him now. The key is to find as many players as you can that out-perform their price tag. Pope did that in previous seasons, but now that he is at a premium price, I have less interest in him.

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I am likely going to go cheap and target a 4.5m GK, but I see some in the 5m range that could potentially entice me. First of all, let’s see how things shake out at Chelsea. I cannot imagine Kepa Arrizabalaga remaining the #1. He has been absolutely terrible and not just by FPL standards. I don’t think I would chance Willy Caballero as an FPL play, but if the Blues go out and get Jan Oblak and FPL prices him at 5m...well, I am all over that. I will have to wait until the start of the season draws closer, but I have an eye on Bernd Leno. The wait is due to what was a pretty impressive run by teammate Emiliano Martinez to finish out last season. He didn’t do anything to lose the gig back. I’d love to see Martinez keep the gig somehow and snatch him up for 4.5m lickety-split, but am still thinking of Leno for now.

What is this? This needs its own paragraph. I see Martin Dubravka going for 5m. Fair enough. I think he is underrated, putting up points for the past two seasons that would fetch a 5.5m price tag if he was playing at a larger club. But why on Earth is Karl Darlow also priced at 5m? Did I miss something? Is the job wide open? It’s rather insignificant, but the first real head-scratcher of this “unboxing”. I mean, typically, a second-stringer is going to go for .5m less than a starter. Darlow is doomed to never be owned by anyone this season. Even if Dubravka got injured, you wouldn’t be getting his replacement as a discount. Strange.

Jordan Pickford at 5m. I like it. I like it alot. Pickford has had finishes near the top of the leaderboard in past seasons, while last year saw him drop off a bit, perhaps losing his England job to Pope or Henderson in the process. Any defensive improvement from the Toffees this season should see Pickford climb the ranks. A very similar feeling I get from Lukasz Fabianski at 5m. He, too, has finished among the leaders at his position in past seasons, so he has proven he can meet or exceed the expectations of a 5m keeper. West Ham seem another side that can only take a step up from their defensive record last season. Finally, Vincente Guaita. I am going to politely pass. What is already an aging defense is a year older and, until I start seeing some fresh faces at Selhurst Park, I’m worried for Crystal Palace’s survival chances this season.

So that brings us to the bread and butter - the 4.5m keeper. Will Sheffield United get Aaron Ramsdale? Seems that way. If priced at 4.5m, which he should be, then I will give him serious consideration. What is there at the moment does not interest me and lowers the stock of Blades defenders. All three promoted sides will have 4.5m keepers to choose from, but there is some uncertainty there. Leeds have Kiko Casilla but rumor has it that he is on the outs. Sam Johnstone may not dazzle you with name or career highlights, but a starting West Brom keeper has historically been a good budget play. Ben Foster filled that role nicely for years and the Baggies normally defend well at home. Fulham - skip it. I am looking at a defense that is too similar to the one that got roasted in their last PL season. Mathew Ryan is who he is. He’s played like a 4.5m starter for years now, finishing in the bottom half of starting keepers consistently. That said, I think Brighton are on the upswing, with many pieces potentially gelling at the same time. Ryan could be in for his best season to date. Finally, the pick of the litter in my view: Alex McCarthy of Southampton. The Saints, after a dreadful start to last season, completely turned things around when Angus Gunn was dropped for McCarthy and the latter helped guide Southampton to a solid 11th-place finish.

Last and certainly least, the 4m bench-fillers. No starters here, of course. So who to use as a GK2 that never plays makes the most sense? David Button played that role for me last season and looks poised to do it again, but I may mix it up and take West Ham’s David Martin this time around. He was decent in his brief run last season. In five start, he managed two cleanies.

Defenders

Right, let me exhale immediately. Trent Alexander-Arnold is going for 7.5m. I was afraid FPL would push him up to 8m, but thankfully not. He should be the first player in your squad. Unfortunately, that will be the case for most managers, so he will not be much of a differential. Still, he is in a league by himself. Cough up the cash. We may as well stick with the Reds, because the next two price brackets, 7m and 6.5m, are also on Jurgen Klopp’s back line - Andrew Robertson and Virgil Van Dijk, respectively. Personally, I think if you are too frugal to go for Alexander-Arnold, you go for the consistency of van Dijk. Robertson feels like trying to chase TA-A but he finished only three points ahead of van Dijk last season. Not worth the extra .5m in my view.

Next comes the 6m tier. Typically, this is where the best attacking fullbacks not playing for Liverpool reside. This season, Matt Doherty looks solid value. He was the highest-scoring defender not playing for the Reds last season and his role and consistency is well-established, though a cut-rate option in the Wolves defense may see a bit less investment in Doherty from the season’s jump. Until a new keeper takes over at Chelsea, I think I am avoiding César Azpilicueta and Marcos Alonso. The former is consistent and the latter is explosive when in form, but neither entice me the way things stand today. Ricardo Pereira is a solid play when fit. It will be a while before that is the case though, so he is one to monitor. Maybe his price will have dropped a time or two by the time he is playing again. Finally, three Man City defenders round out this price bracket. You have fullbacks Kyle Walker and Benjamin Mendy, along with center back Aymeric Laporte. For my money, only Laporte is an option at this price. He will start more games than the other two and, when I am paying premium for a defender, they need to start 95% of the time. I do not get that sense from Walker or Mendy.

Now for the 5.5m boys. It appears there are about 23 players going for this price. I cannot possibly give my take on all of them, but I will do my best to hit on the most relevant names. I am expecting Manchester United to improve defensively this season, so I am keeping a close eye on Harry Maguire and Aaron Wan-Bissaka as long-term investments. Conversely, I picture Sheffield United taking a step back in their defensive record, so George Baldock and Enda Stevens fall out of favor for me. Joel Matip and Joe Gomez are the same price. Clearly, if one were the outright starter, they would be going for 6m at least. So there is value there if one of these boys nails the role down. Leicester has a few options in this bracket, but three of their preferred back four are currently sidelined, so I am not looking here at the moment. Based on a solid previous season, James Tarkowski, like Nick Pope, is going for a premium. But this is when I usually jump off the bandwagon. I target players like Tarkowski when their price is lower. Once they see an increase like this, I feel like they can only match expectations at best. I want the chance for players to exceed expectations.

I don’t like Willy Boly at 5.5m. It just seems you either pay .5m more for Doherty or you pay .5m less for Conor Coady. If Tottenham can improve on last season’s defensive performance, which I hope they can, then their options are worth keeping on a watchlist - Serge Aurier if he is looking sharp in getting forward, Toby Alderweireld if Spurs get on a run of clean sheets. Why is Yerry Mina 5.5m? Just, why? Finally, the player I am looking at like it is 1989 and I just unwrapped the Nintendo Power Glove. Does it just look cool? Or will it actually BE cool? I am talking about Kieran Tierney. It gives me no pleasure to say, but I am expecting Arsenal to improve considerably from last season all around the pitch, but Tierney’s attacking potential appeals to me at that price. If they can bump up the clean sheet totals a bit and Tierney makes the jump into elite attacking fullback, this is the option that could make a mockery of it’s price tag.

Right. It is at this point where there are definitely too many names to touch on in the 5m bracket and I now realize this column is going to need to be a two-parter. I am blessed with too many toys! So these are like Christmas Eve presents and tomorrow, we will have Christmas morning. Or, apply any holiday you want here. I am all for inclusivity. Just going for a metaphor here, folks…

So, let’s break this down to simply who I really like at this price and who I don’t. What I don’t like - a 5m Fulham defender? Really? No offense Joe Bryan but that backline needs multiple upgrades before I would even consider you at 4.5m. I like Tyrone Mings in reality and even in other leagues that count additional stats, but in the FPL format, I see no need to pay more than 4.5m for a Villa center back. I love Jan Valery’s attacking potential but how is he at 5m when the cheaper Kyle Walker-Peters appears to be the preferred right back for Southampton? Maybe these prices were set before that deal went through. Generally, I see among the 5m options, a ton of players who play for a big club but do not have a role nailed down. These are the players to constantly monitor, because an injury can turn one of these options from Man United, City, Chelsea, etc into a must-own overnight.

The 4.5m bracket - we all have to dig through this giant pile of names and pick a player or two every season. There WILL be gems in here that will put up numbers comparable to what you would expect from a 6m option. I won’t pretend to know precisely who they are just yet, but I immediately carved out a slot for Ruben Vinagre with Jonny sidelined for a considerable amount of time. He’s still a bit raw but if he can improve on his crossing, there is tons of potential there. I can still get a piece of Burnley for 4.5m? Great. Whether it’s Charlie Taylor or Erik Pieters, that is going to easily provide value. As mentioned earlier, I am keeping my eye on Brighton. I don’t picture myself paying a premium for Lewis Dunk, but names like Tariq Lamptey and Adam Webster stand out to me. This will also likely be the area where I pick up a defender from either Leeds or West Brom, should either look defensively competent from the jump.

Last, but never least, the always-exciting 4m defender bracket. Every year, without fail, we get a diamond out of this rough. It is too early for me to say with confidence who that player will be this season, but last season, monitoring preseason action, I was shouting “Lundstram” through a megaphone and will do so again for whoever takes the mantle of a 4m superhero. Early doors, there seems to be optimism that Nathan Ferguson can hit the ground running for Crystal Palace. They need a fresh face, like I mentioned before. He could very well fit the bill. Barry Douglas of Leeds has some question marks around him but he could end up as their regular left back this season. Will these or any of the other 4m options have a Lundstram-style impact, or a Wan-Bissaka for Palace-style impact. Hard to say. Those are big shoes to fill. But if you don’t have a 4m punt as your DEF5, then something is wrong.

Hit me up on Twitter @FuzzyWarbles and let me know your thoughts on these prices and who stands out to you. Happy tinkering!