It’s time to prepare for FPL drafts and to kick squad building into high gear. With just over two weeks to go until Liverpool welcomes Norwich into the Premier League, all eyes are on each move that teams are making. To assist with the spike in draft preparation happening right now, I’ve taken a look at players to join non-promoted sides in the Premier League. (Promoted sides were left out because they will be covered separately so have no fear).
Before we get started, let’s remember that the majority of players who arrive from clubs outside the Premier League don’t validate their transfer fee. And of the amount that does, even fewer can generate enough impact to be relevant in fantasy. Looking at last summer’s transfer window, 94 of the 131 incoming transfers were players who joined from clubs that weren’t in the Premier League during the 2017/18 season. Of those players, only 19 finished inside the top-50 at their respective position in FPL. In other words, that means nearly 80% of the new arrivals were pretty much irrelevant from a fantasy perspective. So, how do you separate the potential studs from the flops?
In my opinion, you need to identify which players will have the opportunity to address a deficiency for their new club. One of the best examples of this was James Maddison. Maddison arrived at Leicester City as the replacement for Riyad Mahrez. With Mahrez’s past success as the primary creator, Maddison’s clearly defined role and numbers from the Championship made it easy to paint a picture where he would be a worthy investment in fantasy. Over at West Ham, Felipe Anderson arrived without competition on the left-wing and provided the offensive threat the club has lacked since the departure of Dmitri Payet. David Brooks capitalized on Bournemouth’s lack of a first-choice right-midfielder and Raúl Jiménez, who joined a Wolverhampton side without a true center-forward, went on to be the joint-ninth highest scorer across all positions. The last attention-worthy example was Alisson. Liverpool had one of the four best defensive records in 2017/18 despite less than adequate goalkeeping from Loris Karius and Simon Mignolet. With a strong defense in place, the addition of a reliable pair of hands between the sticks was always going to produce more clean sheets.
After looking at some case studies to create a base for what you’ll be reading, let’s give you what you came for, my 2019 incoming transfers to watch (so far):
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Sébastien Haller, West Ham (Forward)
Since there’s a lot to cover on Haller, we will skip the fluff. West Ham’s club-record signing (£45m) is an imposing forward (6” 3, 200lbs) with the ability to create and score goals. In Eintracht Frankfurt’s 3-4-1-2 formation, he served as the target forward in a two-person system alongside playmakers Luka Jovic and Ante Rebic, who would alternate as his strike partner and the lone attacking midfield. Last season in the Bundesliga no striker won more aerial duels (6.9) or provided more assists (9) than Haller. His 35 key passes were also third-most at the position, only Robert Lewandowski (47) and Wout Weghorst (37) provided more during 2018/19.
Bundesliga 2018/19 | Minutes | Goals | Goal Attempts | Conversion Rate |
Lewandowski | 2959 | 22 | 144 | 15.28% |
Alcacer | 1205 | 18 | 52 | 34.62% |
Kramaric | 2404 | 17 | 110 | 15.45% |
Havertz | 2901 | 17 | 87 | 19.54% |
Jovic | 2249 | 17 | 97 | 17.53% |
Reus | 2322 | 17 | 69 | 24.64% |
Weghorst | 2931 | 17 | 73 | 23.29% |
Belfodil | 1864 | 16 | 88 | 18.18% |
Werner | 2525 | 16 | 107 | 14.95% |
Haller | 2181 | 15 | 54 | 27.78% |
Poulsen | 2454 | 15 | 65 | 23.08% |
The chart above highlights that a low volume of shots didn’t hinder his ability to score. Of the 11 players who scored 15 or more goals in the Bundesliga in 2018/19, only Paco Alcacer (34.6%) had a better conversion rate (27.8%). Since Alcacer’s rate was boosted by his role as a substitute and the non-bolded players operated in different attacking positions, it is worth noting that Haller’s conversion rate was the highest of the five target forwards who saw more than 2,000 minutes. Having been one of the top strikers in Germany, how does he stack up against the top Premier League forwards?
Vs. PL 2018/19 | Apps | Goals | Goal Attempts | Conversion Rate | Minutes Per Goal | Minutes Per Shot On Target |
Haller | 29 | 15 | 54 | 27.8% | 145.5 | 83.9 |
Murray | 38 | 13 | 54 | 24.1% | 193.2 | 119.6 |
Lacazette | 35 | 13 | 81 | 16.1% | 192.7 | 89.5 |
Jiménez | 38 | 13 | 111 | 11.7% | 240.2 | 94.6 |
Lukaku | 32 | 12 | 55 | 21.8% | 177.5 | 66.6 |
Rondón | 32 | 11 | 89 | 12.3% | 237.1 | 96.6 |
Mitrovic | 37 | 11 | 131 | 8.4% | 298.3 | 69.8 |
Arnautovic | 28 | 10 | 62 | 16.1% | 199.9 | 62.5 |
Rather than throwing his number up against the entire field, the chart below includes the Premier League forwards who have a similar playing style or role for their club. While his minutes per attempt in the box and shot on target don’t stand out, his conversion rate and minutes per goal average are much better than the forwards who took around the same amount of shots - Glenn Murray and Romelu Lukaku. If you expand the comparison to include assists and key passes, his numbers are quite similar to Raúl Jiménez (£7.5), who registered seven assists and 42 key passes.
Haller will be the undisputed first-choice striker for West Ham following the departure of Marko Arnautovic and secondary options Andy Carroll and Lucas Pérez. During Manuel Pellegrini’s first season in charge, his most used formation was a 4-2-3-1 spearheaded by either Arnautovic or Chicharito. This season, Pellegrini will have the option to explore variations of a 4-1-4-1 as well as two-forward sets, with either Chicharito or Michail Antonio as the other striker. With his previous underlying numbers realistically repeatable this season, Haller seems to have what it takes to be a mid-tier second forward in both FPL and Fantrax. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get off to a good start since West Ham faces Brighton, Watford, Norwich and Aston Villa following their opener against Manchester City.
Joelinton, Newcastle United (Forward)
At face value, Joelinton’s overall body of work suggests Newcastle have bought potential rather than an immediate impact performer. The 22-year-old has a similar physical profile to Salomon Rondon but is far from a finished product. He converted 12.5% of his chances last season, with seven goals on 56 shots, and ranked 26th in goals of all Bundesliga forwards and attacking midfielders. Since Steve Bruce is a manager who uses a similar tactical approach to his predecessor Rafa Benitez, is Joelinton equipped to replace Rondon?
Minutes | 2136 | 2609 | 2928 |
Goals | 7 | 11 | 12 |
Goal Attempts | 56 | 89 | 55 |
Conversion Rate | 12.5% | 12.4% | 21.8% |
Mins Per Shot On Target | 89 | 96.6 | 108.3 |
Assists | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Mins Per Key Pass | 49.7 | 81.5 | 65.1 |
Mins Per Dribble | 45.5 | 144.9 | 63.7 |
First and foremost, Joelinton isn’t an out-and-out-target-man. The Brazilian earned a reputation as one of the rising stars in the Bundesliga because of his technical ability—he averaged a successful dribble every 45.5 minutes and a key pass every 49.7 minutes last season. To get a better perspective on those numbers, last season Ayoze Pérez averaged a successful dribble every 63.7 minutes, and Rondon averaged a key pass every 81.5 minutes. The 22-year-old is also capable of playing in a few different positions. For Hoffenheim, his heatmap shows that while he was deployed as a center-forward, he spent more time taking up positions on the left and right flank. As a well-rounded forward who will bring a different skill set to the frontline, I don’t think Joelinton is that much of a downgrade from Rondon. He might not be as effective winning balls in the air when retaining possession, but it’s realistic to assume he could mirror Rondon’s 11 goals and 12.4% conversion rate from last season. The lack of supporting options outside of Miguel Almirón also leads me to believe he could post numbers similar to the 2 shots, 1.5 key passes and 1.7 dribbles he averaged on a per-game basis in 2018/19. Since someone needs to score goals for Newcastle this season, Joelinton is on my radar as third forward in 12-team Fantrax leagues and a bold differential in FPL.
Leandro Trossard, Brighton (Midfielder)
Trossard captained Genk to a Jupiler Pro League title and the knockout stage of the Europa League last season. The 24-year-old scored 14 goals and supplied seven assists in 34 league appearances and added eight goals and three assists in the Europa League. As a wide creator with a nose for goal, something Brighton lacked last season, Trossard seems like a terrific signing.
2018/19 (League) | Apps | Goals | Shots | Mins per Shot | Mins per Goal |
Trossard | 34 | 14 | 126 | 22.1 | 178.8 |
Groß | 25 | 3 | 24 | 78.3 | 626 |
Locadia | 26 | 2 | 28 | 43.9 | 615 |
March | 36 | 1 | 43 | 57.6 | 2475 |
In 2018/19, under Chris Hughton, only the three relegated clubs scored fewer goals than Brighton (36). The Seagulls finished 19th in open play goals (12) and, on a per-match basis, placed 19th in shots (9.8) and 20th in shots on target (2.8). These numbers had everything to do with the lack of production outside of Glenn Murray. Shane Duffy (5) was the second-leading scorer while Pascal Groß, who endured an injury-riddled season, managed just three in 25 appearances. Solly March led their midfielders with a meager average of 1.2 shots per game while Jurgen Locadia topped the charts in mins per shot, providing one every 43.2 minutes. The absence of offensive consistency in midfield is good news for Trossard, who averaged a shot every 22.1 minutes and a goal every 168 minutes across all competitions in 2018/19. Though his production came against lesser opponents, José Izquierdo registered five goals, five assists and 101 FPL points following his move to Brighton from fellow Belgian outfit Club Brugge in 2017/18.
It is unlikely many managers will begin the season with Trossard in their FPL squad since Pascal Groß (£6.5) is marginally more expensive. His starting price of £6.0 also puts him in the same bracket as proven value picks Andros Townsend and James Ward-Prowse. With that said, the variety of factors working in Trossard’s favor could easily see him emerge as a consistent producer from the left side of the attacking trio in new manager Graham Potter’s 4-2-3-1 formation. In Fantrax league, Trossard is not winning you any titles, but he can easily outperform his average draft position (144th).
Che Adams, Southampton (Forward)
Adams heads to Southampton having notched 22 goals and five assists in 48 Championship appearances (3,740 minutes) for Birmingham last season. The 22-year-old, compared to all players who made 40 or more appearances in the second tier, placed third in minutes per shot (32.8) and fourth in minutes per goal (170). If you look at Southampton’s lack of production from forwards last season, there’s enough support to justify why Adams should be a regular in his debut campaign.
2018/19 (League) | Apps | Goals | Goal Attempts | Conversion Rate | Minutes Per Goal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adams | 36 | 22 | 114 | 19.3% | 170 |
Ings | 24 | 7 | 56 | 12.5% | 238.2 |
Long | 26 | 5 | 30 | 16.7% | 254.4 |
Austin | 25 | 2 | 32 | 6.3% | 490.5 |
Danny Ings, on loan from Liverpool, would have had much better numbers if he had stayed healthy. The 26-year-old scored seven goals, added three assists and averaged a team-high 2.3 shots per game. However, due to a recurring hamstring injury, he was limited to just 23 starts. His absence afforded Shane Long and Charlie Austin chances to stake claim to regular roles, yet the pair provided an underwhelming total of seven goals. Long scored four of his five goals across 12 starts while neither of Austin’s goals came during his 11 starts. Hasenhuttl was able to cover the lack of goals from his out-and-out strikers by getting creative and transitioning Nathan Redmond into a forward. The new role saw Redmond put together a resurgent second half as he scored six goals, chipped in four assists and averaged 2.5 shots per game.
The addition of an athletic forward with pace and a high work rate gives Hasenhuttl the tactical flexibility to use his preferred 4-2-2-2 formation without sacrificing the offensive appeal of Redmond. Since Hasenhuttl’s system requires forwards to press in the defensive phase, deploying Adams upfront alongside Ings would allow Redmond to operate in a free-roaming advanced midfield role. The arrival of fellow summer signing Moussa Djenepo (£5.5), an inverted winger with tremendous pace and a good pair of shooting boots, means a 4-2-3-1 formation is also a possibility. The 21-year-old’s defense-splitting speed and ability to draw fouls are key attributes Southampton’s midfield has lacked in recent years.
For now, though, Adams has a clearer path to minutes. The forward has bagged two goals thus far in the pre-season and Djenepo is yet to feature having been on international duty with Mali. The case for Adams (£6.0m) is even stronger when you consider that Shane Long managed to finish as the 23rd forward in FPL and the 44th in Fantrax last season. If Adams wins a starting place as I expect, he will easily outperform his current average draft position (128th) in Fantrax leagues.
