Tulane (9-3) suffered a pair of non-conference losses to Kansas State and @Oklahoma early in the season before rattling off eight straight victories against their AAC opponents heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Despite having a Week 13 Bye to prepare for Memphis, the Tigers held the ball for almost 40 minutes running for 236 yards while Tulane produced just 57 rushing yards on 18 carries in a 34-24 loss. HC Jon Sumrall has assembled a rock solid pass game on both sides of the ball, ranking 7th in EPA/dropback on offense and 4th in EPA/dropback allowed on defense. While their offensive rushing attack is strong but lacking in explosiveness (80th in yards per successful rush), their rush defense is getting gashed for 11.9 yards per successful rush, which ranks a dreadful 130th nationally.
Army (10-1) has been one of the come-up stories of the 2024 season, defeating every opponent on their schedule with the exception of the CFP Playoff 5th seed Notre Dame. In typical Army form, their run game has steamrolled opponents for a 53.5% rushing success rate (5th), 3.30 yards before contact (4th) and ranks 3rd in EPA/rush. Though they don’t throw very often, the Black Knights rank 1st in EPA/dropback, passing explosiveness and interception rate. Defensively you can move the chains on Army as they rank 83rd in success rate and 65th in efficiency, but they clamp down in the red zone (51.7% RZ RD rate) and suppress big plays ranking 4th in marginal explosiveness.
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Game Details and How to watch Tulane @ Army live
· Date: Friday, December 6, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Michie Stadium
· City: West Point, NY
· TV/Streaming: ABC
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Game odds for AAC Championship: Tulane at Army
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Moneyline: Tulane (-210), Army (+180)
- Spread: Tulane (-4.5)
- Over/Under: 45.5 points
The spread opened at Tulane -4 and is still showing a fairly broad range between -4 and -5.5 depending on the book. Tulane’s moneyline dropped at -170 and has since risen to -195 to -220, while Army has moved from +142 to +180. The most substantial odds shift has occurred on the game total which opened at 48.5 and is down to a consensus of 45.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Dating back to his tenure at Troy, a hallmark of Tulane HC Jon Sumrall’s historical defenses has been excellent secondary play. This year is no exception however Tulane’s run defense has been a noticeable weakness, and that’s a dangerous proposition against the ruthlessly efficient rushing attack of Army and QB Bryson Daily. I can’t help but like the +180 value and back “Home Dog” Army. ”
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Quarterback matchup for Tulane at Army
- Army: Bryson Daily spent 2023 learning on the job with modest results, earning a 58th percentile offensive grade on the year. Daily has come of age in 2024 though, rushing for 100+ yards against every FBS program while rushing for at least two touchdowns in all but one game so far (FAU). He leads all quarterbacks with 1,348 rush yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground to go with a sterling 91.9 PFF overall grade that ranks 5th in FBS. On the passing side, Daily is completing only 56.5% of his throws but is averaging an FBS-leading 16.8 ADOT, 11.3 YPA and an 8-to-1 ratio.
- Tulane: Redshirt freshman QB Darian Mensah upset Oregon transfer Ty Thompson to win the starting job in August and never looked back, earning an 82.3 PFF overall grade that ranks 28th in FBS. The second-year signal caller is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 20-to-5 ratio, while Mensah’s 9.6 YPA is the third-highest mark in the country. He has been hurt by shaky wide receiver play, having to overcome a 9.5% drop rate that is the 15th highest mark in FBS.
Tulane and Army: Betting Trends & Recent Stats
- Army K Trey Gronotte has made 98% of extra point and field goal attempts this season, 6th-best among FBS kickers.
- Army Skill Players have been targeted 8.5 times per game this season,lowest among FBS programs.
- Army has allowed first downs on 42% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season, worst among Non-Power Four teams.
- Army has faced 25.8 carries per game this season, lowest in FBS.
- Tulane has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch this season, 6th-best among FBS skill players. Army’s defense has allowed just 9.7 YAC this season, 4th-best among FBS defenses.
- Darian Mensah has completed passes for 20+ yards on 42 of his 262 total passing attempts this season, 4th-best among FBS quarterbacks.
- Mario Williams (TUL) has averaged 11.2 yards per target this season, 10th-best among FBS skill players.
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Oregon +400 to +350
- Georgia +400 to +450
- Notre Dame +1400 to +900
- Alabama +4000 to +2200
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 13.2%
- Texas 10.9%
- Georgia 10.2%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 16.1%
- Georgia 14.3%
- Alabama 11.7%
Biggest Liabilities
- Colorado
- Alabama
- Ohio State
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