Iowa (7-4) suffered a tough 20-19 comeback loss to cross-state rival Iowa State in Week 2, then whooped @Minnesota 31-14 with a 99%-win expectancy before getting annihilated by @Ohio State. Since then, the Hawkeyes have won four out of six Big Ten contests with home victories over Washington, Northwestern and Wisconsin, and a pair of road losses to @Michigan State and @UCLA tossed in. HC Kirk Ferentz is fielding another stout defensive unit that ranks 7th in SP+ and 10th in EPA/play. Iowa has made notable improvements on the offensive side of the ball, and more specifically in the run game where potential All-American RB Kaleb Johnson has led Iowa to 5.7 yards per non-QB rush (14th in FBS) while ranking first nationally with a 13.5% explosive run rate.
Nebraska (6-5) stormed out of the gates with three straight wins, including a high-profile 28-10 rivalry game victory over Colorado that let the CFB landscape know HC Matt Rhule, and freshman QB Dylan Raiola are going to be a factor in the expanded Big Ten. NU lost a one-score contest to Illinois in Week 4 before rattling off two wins over @Purdue and Rutgers. They got demolished 56-7 by @Indiana and took @Ohio State to the limit in a close 21-17 defeat. Nebraska’s strength is their 17th ranked SP+ defense that is currently 20th in EPA/rush and 16th nationally with a 39% pressure rate. Despite their offense averaging a modest 24 PPG, that’s a still full touchdown jump over their 18 points per game average from a year ago, so the offense is trending in the right direction.
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Game details and how to watch Nebraska at Iowa
· Date: Friday, November 29, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: Kinnick Stadium
· City: Iowa City, IA
· TV/Streaming: NBC
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Game odds for Nebraska at Iowa - Week 14
The latest odds as of Wednesday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Iowa (-210), Nebraska (+170)
- Spread: Iowa -5.5
- Over/Under: 39.5 points
This game opened at Iowa -4 but has since ticked up to a consensus of -5.5 at time of publishing. The Hawkeyes’ moneyline opened at -185 but that has fallen to the -200 to -220 range, while Nebraska has improved to +175 in many spots. The game total dropped at 39 points and has moved only slightly to 39.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Iowa is quietly 9-2 to the Over this season, with 8 of their last 9 games having gone over this 39-point game total. On the other side, Nebraska has scored 44, 20, 20 and 17 points over the last four games and should be able to keep the game competitive. I’m backing the Over 39.5 points.”
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Quarterback matchup for Nebraska at Iowa
- Iowa: Michigan transfer QB Cade McNamara won the starting job out of fall camp, completing 60% of his passes with a 5.9 yards per attempt average that ranks 139th out of 157 qualifying FBS signal callers. He got injured and was replaced by dual-threat QB Brendan Sullivan, who had been the short-yardage substitute quarterback before starting against Wisconsin completing 7-of-10 passes for 93 yards, as the Hawkeyes ran the ball 53 times for 330 yards against an overmatched Badgers front. The Northwestern transfer earned a middling 60.7 PFF passing grade before getting injured against UCLA which caused 3rd-string QB Jackson Stratton to start last game and complete 10-of-14 passes for 76 yards as a glorified handoff-machine for RB Kaleb Johnson.
- Nebraska: HC Matt Rhule managed to entice five-star Georgia commit QB Dylan Railoa to flip his commitment to Nebraska and handed the keys to the offense to him right out of the gate as a true freshman. The young gunslinger is completing 66.4% of his passes for 6.8 YPA and a 12-to-10 ratio to go with a respectable 68th percentile passing grade. He’s not going to win any races, ranking second-to-last nationally in rushing yards per game with -7.1 and his 10.4 yards per completion average is the fifth-worst mark among Power Four quarterbacks. Though he’s still very raw, Raiola has thrown for first downs on 36% of his passes in close-and-late situations, 11th-best among Power Four quarterbacks.
Betting trends and recent stats for Iowa and Nebraska
- Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 330 carries this season, the best mark among Power Conference programs.
- The Hawkeyes rank last among P4 teams in wide receiver receptions per game with 5.1. Michigan ranks a close 2nd with 5.5 WR receptions per contest.
- Kaleb Johnson is averaging 135.6 rushing yards per game this season, 2nd-best among FBS Running Backs. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty ranks 1st averaging 187 YPG.
- QB Dylan Raiola is averaging 8.7 yards per completion on 3rd down this season, 2nd-worst among Power Conference quarterbacks.
- Nebraska WR Jahmal Banks has just 2 receptions on 11 targets in the Red Zone this season, worst among FBS skill players. WR Isaiah Neyor has 8 receptions on 12 targets in the Red Zone this season, 4th-best among Big Ten Skill Players.
- Nebraska has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 3-of-57 attempts on 3rd and long this season, 14th-best in the Power Four.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Ohio State +320 to +275
- Georgia +500 to +400
- Texas +500 to +450
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 13.4%
- Texas 11.1%
- Georgia 10.5%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 15.9%
- Georgia 14.9%
- Alabama 12.1%
Biggest Liabilities
- Colorado
- Ohio State
- Alabama
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