Purdue (1-8) has yet to defeat a FBS opponent and is coming off a pair of demoralizing shutouts at the hands of Oregon and Ohio State, with a 26-20, 16% win expectancy loss to Northwestern sandwiched in. Their best moment came in a spirited comeback versus @Illinois where they accrued 49 points but still fell to the Illini 50-49 despite a 75%-win expectancy. Purdue relies on a strong rushing offense that ranks 17th in yards per successful rush (11.3 yards) and 16th in stuff rate (14.3%). While the offense is middling but competent, the Boilermakers are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 132nd in EPA/rush and 133rd in total QBR allowed.
The Nittany Lions (8-1) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC that carried an 86%-win expectancy. Besides that, each of their seven other wins came with perfect 100%-win expectancies, with PSU exhibiting a non-Ohio State mastery of their Big Ten opponents. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense is a very efficient unit that ranks 3rd in success rate, 8th in EPA/play and 5th in 3-and-out rate. However, they are also a dismal 102nd in yards per successful play and 94th in explosiveness, showing an inability to stretch the field. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 2nd in SP+. Their lockdown secondary is allowing just 3.7 yards per completion while the pass rush ranks 25th overall with a 7.6% sack rate and 38% pressure rate.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to watch Penn State @ Purdue
· Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: Ross-Ade Stadium
· City: West Lafayette, IN
· TV/Streaming: CBS
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Game odds for Penn State @ Purdue courtesy of BetMGM
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
- Moneyline: Penn State (-10,000), Purdue (+2,000)
- Spread: Penn State -28.5
- Over/Under: 50.5 points
The spread dropped at PSU -28 and has added the hook to -28.5 in most places. Purdue has improved from a moneyline open of +1,600 to +2,200, while Penn State has gone down from -4,000 to a best price of -5,000. There’s slight movement on the game total, which has gone from 50 to a range of 50.5/51 at time of print.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Purdue has gotten destroyed by Notre Dame, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Oregon. It didn’t take long for any of these quality programs to jump all over the Boilermakers, often resting their starters after halftime. I’m advocating a position on Penn State to cover the very attainable -16.5 points first half spread.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
Quarterback matchup for Penn State @ Purdue
- Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar sustained a knee injury and was questionable in the leadup to their pivotal Ohio State game, but the grizzled vet managed to gut it out in the 20-13 loss. Despite the slight step back against OSU, Allar looked in prime form in PSU’s 35-6 victory over Washington last weekend, completing 20-of-28 for 220 yards and a touchdown. He ranks 9th nationally with an 87.2 PFF passing grade and is handling the rush expertly, rating 9th in FBS with a 70th percentile under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 3rd in passing success rate and is achieving first down yardage on 64% of their completions. Despite their recent loss to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are still a legitimate national title contender who are currently 19-1 to win the CFP National Championship.
- Purdue: Hudson Card transferred in from Texas last year, as his services were no longer needed following the arrival of Quinn Ewers and the commitment of Arch Manning. He started the first five games in 2023, completing 64% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt and a respectable 75th percentile PFF passing grade. When OC Graham Harrell was fired after Week 6 this season, Card was demoted as well, which opened the door for redshirt freshman Ryan Browne to take over. Browne has completed 61% of his throws for 8.2 YPA and a 3-to-1 ratio to go with a strong 85.3 offensive grade. The freshman performed admirably against Illinois (91st% game grade) but his inexperience was exposed versus a stout Oregon defense, so the team turned back to Card who completed 9-of-19 passes for 108 yards and an interception against Ohio State last game.
Betting trends & recent stats
- Star Penn State TE Tyler Warren leads all Power Four tight ends with 36 first down receptions. Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsden is 2nd with 30.
- Penn State QB Drew Allar is completing 56% of his passes (15-of-27) in close & late situations, which ranks 35th out of 57 Power Four signal callers. (Brendan Sorsby #1 at 79%)
- Purdue has allowed 17 rushes of 20+ yards on 356 attempts for a 4.8% explosive run rate that ranks 62nd out of 67 P4 programs. Oklahoma State ranks last at 6.4%.
- Purdue’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.8% of 230 attempts this season -- T-20th-worst among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season -- T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Ohio State +350 to +300
- Texas +550 to +450
- Ole Miss +3500 to +1000
Biggest Liabilities
- Colorado
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
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