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Trae Young O/U 9.5 Assists vs. 76ers
Just when you thought the Philadelphia 76ers had Trae Young in a box, he breaks out for 25 points and 18 assists and victory.
The Hawks’ star guard has repeatedly knifed his way through the 76ers’ defense in order to set himself or teammates up, but Game 4 was on another level.
The potential assists stat is one I have started getting deeper into, helping with a few prop victories. Young reigns supreme in this category, and the last outing was a playoff-high.
Of course, the 18 assists, but he had 31 potential assists compared to 22.0 for the series. Young accounted for 45 points created on his 18 assists and 67 total passes made.
Why did his numbers skyrocket? Well, Danny Green‘s absence (strained calf) was more considerable than most thought. His three and D style was replaced with Furkan Korkmaz, who played more three than D, despite having two blocks.
Young was able to take advantage last game and without Green in Game 5, the 76ers are at a disadvantage -- yet again.
NBC’s model predicts Young to record 11.1 assists in 40 minutes, hitting the Over. I would play this at 10.5 assists or the 11+ tab for + money as well - based on the model.
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Young averages 10.6 assists per game in the postseason, ranking first among the remaining players. He has recorded 10 or more assists in 5-of-9 (55.5%) games. In three Unders, Young totaled eight or nine assists.
In the series, Young has recorded 10, 11, 8 and 18 assists thus far. He has hit the Over three times. Young has averaged 38.5 minutes per game versus the 76ers, and on the season, that is a healthy number for Young.
When he plays 38 or more minutes, Young has a hit rate of 72.8% to the Over, cashing in 8-of-11 games, per props.cash.
Young’s hit rate remains above 60% down to 36 minutes, a number he has played in all four versus the 76ers.
Young popped up on the injury report because of his shoulder, but according to him, he is fine. In postgame interviews, Young said, “It wasn’t bothering me,” referring to his shoulder. “It was just fighting through it. Knowing it was kind of sore.”
His shot was not and has not been falling for him since the 76ers switched to Ben Simmons as the primary defender. Whether Young’s shoulder has impacted his shooting or not, the 76ers’ defense has.
Young was adamant about his shoulder not forcing him to pass more, but the hedging and switching of the 76ers being the main reason. I have to agree with that and believe that is the only way to keep Young under 30 points.
The 76ers will have to live with Young’s teammates making shots because that is better than Young knocking his own down.
Back Young to post a double-double or go Over 9.5 assists, whichever has the better odds. I would play this at 10.5 assists for + money or 11+.
Pick: Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists (1u)
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