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The NBA continues tonight with a five-game slate, with the first game tipping off at 7:00 PM ET.
The three-point shot has revolutionized the game in the last decade as the league-wide three-point rate has increased in each of the previous ten seasons. That number seems to be on the rise once again this year, but three-point percentages are down around the league. Teams converted on 36.7% of their attempts last season, but through the first three weeks this year, it is 34.3%. If that number holds, it would be the lowest three-point shooting percentage since the 1998-99 season.
With that information in mind, let’s jump into my favorite NBA prop bets for Thursday’s slate. All odds are from PointsBet and are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Tyler Herro Over 17.5 Points
It seems strange to call someone’s third season in the NBA a bounce-back year, but that is exactly what Tyler Herro is having for the Miami Heat.
Herro is averaging 22.4 points, six rebounds and four assists this season while shooting 47.2% from the field and 40.8% from three. Moreover, his early-season statistics are not just a hot streak, as Erik Spoelstra has made the 21-year-old a vital part of the Heat’s offense. Although Herro comes off the bench, he is averaging 31.6 minutes per game and has a usage rate of 29.3%. That is the highest usage rate on the Heat and the 22nd highest in the NBA.
Tyler Herro has scored the most points by a reserve through the first 7 games of the season in NBA history 🤯
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) November 4, 2021
Herro is averaging 22.4 points right now🔥 pic.twitter.com/hWOXlez0Yp
The Heat will host the Boston Celtics tonight, a matchup that should favor Herro and his point total. The Celtics give up the second-most points in the NBA with 114.6 and will be on the second leg of a back-to-back. Despite the new officiating tactics, the Celtics have allowed the most free-throw attempts in the league, giving up 25.4 freebies a game.
Tyler Herro has reached this prop value in five of his seven games this season.
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Best Bet #2 - Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points (-120)
Mikal Bridges is showing why he is worth the $90 million contract extension he signed with the Phoenix Suns over the summer. He is averaging a career-high 16.8 points while shooting 56.9% from the field and a team-high 44% from three.
Bridges is also averaging the most minutes on the team (33.3) and has seen an increased usage rate. His usage rating was 14.9 during the 2020-21 season and has risen to 18 in the first six games for the Suns this year.
The Phoenix Suns will be hosting the Houston Rockets. The Rockets give up 110.6 points per game and have been atrocious at closing out to shooters as they allow the most wide-open field goal attempts in the league with 27.4, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
(NOTE: A wide-open field goal attempt means that the closest defender was 6+ feet away.)
Mikal Bridges has reached this prop value in seven of his last ten regular-season games and in five of his six games this season.
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