Super Bow LIX is set and it’s a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans!
It’s not often the two hottest teams in the NFL meet for the Super Bowl, but that’s exactly what has happened with the Eagles (15-1 in the last 16) and Chiefs (17-2 in the last 19) representing the NFC and AFC.
Kansas City won the Super Bowl last season over San Francisco 25-22 in OT and beat Philadephia 38-35 the year prior. The Chiefs are attempting to be the first team to three-peat ever. The Chiefs overcame a late third quarter by the Bills (22-21) in the AFC Championship to win 32-29 behind three total touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes (one passing, two rushing).
Philadelphia destroyed its NFC East rival in the Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship. The Eagles used its ground-and-pound game and ran all over the Commanders for seven combined rushing touchdowns by Saquon Barkley (3), Jalen Hurts (3), and Will Shipley (1). Philadelphia won the turnover battle 4-0 versus Washington and is up 10-0 in that department this postseason (GB, LAR, WAS).
The turnover battle will likely be a theme as Mahomes has not thrown an interception in eight straight games and the Eagles haven’t turned the ball over in the playoffs. However, the storyline for the next two weeks will be Kansas City’s chase for a three-peat, or is Saquon Barkley the missing piece for Philadelphia?
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Game Details and How to watch the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday
· Date: Saturday, February 9, 2024
· Time: 6:30 PM EST
· Site: Caesars Superdome
· City: New Orleans, LA
· TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for Eagles vs. Chiefs
The latest odds as of Monday, January 27th courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-125), Philadelphia Eagles (+015)
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Total: 49.5
Kansas City opened -1.5 or -2 at almost every sportsbook and that’s unlikely to change as a -3 or +3 would create too many hedging opportunities. The total opened at 49.5 or 50.5, so there should be a small movement closer to gameday, but the market isn’t expected to move much.
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS and on the ML with Mahomes in the Super Bowl. However, since 2020, underdogs are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 on the ML in the Super Bowl. Nine of the past 10 winners have covered the spread outside of Bengals versus Rams in 2021 (which I called in Los Angeles).
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes Patrick Mahomes to go Under 0.5 Interceptions and to take home the MVP, plus Saquon Barkley to show out in his first-ever Super Bowl:
Mahomes has not thrown an interception for eight straight games and combined for 16 total touchdowns in that span. While the Chiefs offense hasn’t been the juggernaut this season, Mahomes helping lead the charge in the turnover battle has been one path to victory.
The Eagles are up 10-0 in turnover differential this postseason but that came against Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, and rookie Jayden Daniels. Mahomes ranks superior to those three and that was evident in his three-touchdown and zero-interception performance against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. That was arguably Mahomes’ best Super Bowl passing performance as he hasn’t exactly balled out on the biggest stage with seven passing touchdowns and five interceptions.
I like Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions at -125 odds and to go Over 35.5 passing attempts as he will have to keep the pressure on Philly in order to keep the lead. I believe the Chiefs win, so I am going Mahomes MVP as well (+105).
One of the best early deals on the board is Saquon Barkley Over 22.5 Rushing Attempts (-102). Barley will be the focal point of the Eagles offense and after exiting early against the Commanders because of a blowout, he will be more than rested and ready for the Chiefs.
Barkley carried the ball 25, 26, and 15 times in the playoffs and ran for a combined 442 yards and five touchdowns. It seems like Barkley is relishing this time with Philadelphia and they are enjoying seeing him flourish with Jalen Hurts and behind the offensive line. I don’t see a reason why they would not give Barkley the ball 22-plus times, so I would take his Over 22.5 rushing attempts up to 23.5 as I expect this to close at 24.5 or 25.5.”
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs team stats, betting trends
- Kansas City is 9-10 ATS on the season and 11-8 to the Under.
- Philadelphia is 13-7 ATS (4th) and 11-9 to the Under.
- The Eagles are 3-0 ATS as an underdog (1st) and 2-1 to the Under.
- Kansas City is 4-2 ATS and ML with Mahomes in the Super Bowl.
- Kansas City has won and covered the last two Super Bowls.
- Since 2020, Super Bowl underdogs are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 on the ML.
- Nine of the past 10 Super Bowl winners have covered the spread.
- Only two teams before the Eagles scored 45-plus points in a conference championship and both lost in the Super Bowl (1990 Bills, 2015 Panthers).
- Over the last 15 Super Bowls, the team without rest or a first-round bye in the postseason is 13-2-1 ATS, pointing towards the Eagles.
- Travis Kelce had 117 and 19 yards in two playoff games this season.
- Xavier Worthy posted 45 and 85 yards in two playoff games.
- Kareem Hunt has 108 rushing yards and two touchdowns over the last two games.
- Isiah Pacheco has 33 total yards on 12 total touches in the past two games.
- AJ Brown recorded 10, 15, and 96 yards in three playoff games this year.
- Devonta Smith posted 55, 21, and 45 yards over the previous three games.
Quarterback matchup for Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts - Hurs threw for 2,903 yards and ran for another 630 yards to go along with 32 total touchdowns (18 passing, 14 rushing) in the regular season. In the playoffs, Hurts has four rushing touchdowns and three passing for 627 total yards and no turnovers.
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes - Mahomes finished the regular season with 3,928 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Mahomes has eight straight games without an interception, including the playoffs and 16 total touchdowns in that span. Mahomes has seven passing touchdowns and five interceptions in his Super Bowl career.
Chiefs and Eagles injury update
For the Chiefs, only LB Cam Jones (illness) is questionable, while the Eagles have a trio of players listed as questionable, including RB Kenneth Gainewell (concussion), DB Sydney Brown (concussion) and OL Cam Jurgens (back) are all questionable.
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