The first five weeks of the English Premier League season have been wildly entertaining, yet most of the usual suspects still find themselves near the top of the standings.
Entering Matchweek 6, five of the top six slots in the table are occupied by the “Big Six;” Arsenal, Manchester City, Tottenham, Manchester United, and Liverpool all find themselves inside the top-third of the league, with Chelsea being the only English giant not yet holding up their end of the bargain.
The most appealing matchup on Saturday in terms of wagering features a club that could soon find themselves considered among the elite teams just mentioned – but they’re not there yet.
Below you will find an overlay from the contest between Newcastle and Crystal Palace that can be found at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
4-3-1 (56.3%), +1.98 units
NEWCASTLE UNITED v. CRYSTAL PALACE – MATCH RESULT - Newcastle United (+100)
They may have just a single victory this season against Nottingham Forest, but there’s little doubt that Newcastle United are one of the eight best teams in all of England.
Despite taking just six points in five matches, Eddie Howe‘s group have played brilliantly against some of the best clubs the Premier League has to offer.
A 3-3 draw against Manchester City in Matchweek 3 is as poor a result as the Magpies could have imagined after racing out to a 3-1 lead at St. James’ Park.
The same can be said about their devastating 2-1 defeat at Anfield against Liverpool earlier this week.
If not for a Fabio Carvalho goal in the 98th minute of play on Wednesday, Newcastle would be a club that’s played the top two teams from last season’s Premier League to gutsy draws, with a legitimate case to be made that they should have emerged victorious in at least one of them.
French forward Allan Saint-Maximin has found a bit of consistency to go along with his brilliance this season, although he’s dealing with a hamstring injury that prevented him from traveling with the team to Anfield during the week.
The addition of 22-year-old Alexander Isak from Real Sociedad will help bolster the front line, taking pressure off the likes of Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson (who, too, is sidelined with a hamstring injury) while also providing a potential building block for years to come.
Newcastle’s opponent on Saturday, Crystal Palace, are no slouches by any means.
That said, they are a notch below the home side in terms of talent across the pitch, making them vulnerable on the road.
This may not be the highest scoring affair, however my numbers suggest that Newcastle defeats Palace at St. James’ Park 56.2% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -128.
Taking this number into consideration, it becomes clear why taking Newcastle to win at odds of +100 (implied probability of 50%) is the play in Saturday’s match.
