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The action around Europe (and right here in the United States) is beginning to heat up, with some familiar names taking the courts across the three ongoing tournaments in Bastad, Hamburg and Newport. I’m sticking with the clay on Tuesday and will get to my plays now.
Federico Delbonis (-175) vs. Albert Ramos-Vinolas (+136)
This is a classic clay-court rivalry if you’re into watching smaller ATP tournaments in South America. Delbonis leads, 7-4 over the head-to-head series which has been going for 11 years, and has taken the last three meetings.
Delbonis has probably had the better season of the two, but Ramos-Vinolas is one of the best clay-courters in the game today, and has been an over machine this year. He managed to cash the over in the last two meetings, one of which was just at the end of ARV’s early clay season. From there, he cashed two more overs before some strong showings in losses on other surfaces.
Back on clay, I think Ramos-Vinolas will bring it and give us a very tight battle. Both men will come in on equal footing, with just one clay match each after Wimbledon. The big-serving lefty Delbonis should meet a perfect match in fellow lefty Ramos-Vinolas, who debuted an even bigger forehand earlier this year in the Golden Swing which led him to new heights. I also recommend having some exposure to the moneyline.
Edge: Over 21.5
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Fabio Fognini (-167) vs. Roberto Carballes-Baena (+130)
It’s always a guessing game as to which Fabio Fognini you’re going to get, but I see little reason for the Italian to pour his heart into this match. While he did win Bastad back in 2018, that was a much different time for him. He was in fantastic form, having won an event earlier in the year, and even then he dropped his opening set in the tournament 6-1 to Mikael Ymer. If not for Ymer’s wild inexperience, Fognini could have easily been bounced in the first round.
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With the hardcourt swing just around the corner, there’s nothing for Fognini to do here. He’s not tuning up for a big tournament, and he’s not defending ranking points. There is a very high likelihood he tries to hit some big winners early, and when he can’t find them he folds under the relentless pressure Carballes-Baena puts him under.
It’s not as if RCB is a world-class player, but his consistency here and fight will be key. I’m not so sure in his current form and with his upcoming schedule that the much higher-ranked Italian will want to get into a clay war with the Spaniard.
Edge: Carballes-Baena +130
Jack Sock (+146) vs. Kevin Anderson (-189)
Watching Jack Sock run to the quarterfinals in Newport, it’s hard not to be reminded why this guy was once ranked No. 8 in the world. His cracking forehand and big serve have been right on point, and his work on the grass leading up to this tournament seems to be paying dividends.
Sock’s wins were massively impressive; one came against a tremendous grass player in Alex Bolt who has a great 60-28 mark on the surface over the course of his career and 10 wins in 13 tries this grass court season. His next triumph was against a great counter-puncher in Yoshi Nishioka who really made him work in rallies. He’s faced a great server and a great returner and should be very prepared to face big Kevin Anderson.
Sock and Anderson have split their four meetings, with three coming on the hardcourts. Those matches were when both players were at their best, and both are clearly not at that level anymore. Sock would be the closest, and he continues to improve as he makes his comeback. The American is just 28 and trying to get back to the top of the game after an injury while Anderson is six years older and probably closer to retirement. The choice here is simply, Sock should make it to the semifinals for a third straight time in Newport.
Edge: Sock +146
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