Few teams evoke irrational nightmares for Notre Dame fans more than Pittsburgh does. But these are not the normal pestilent Panthers. The No. 14 Irish (6-2) should have little trouble on Saturday at 3:30 ET on NBC, at least in theory.
But as Pittsburgh (2-5) works in a new starting quarterback and comes off two competitive weeks, could yet another Panthers headache await Notre Dame? Let’s check with Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
DF: I struggle to come away with much about the Panthers from last weekend. They were playing a bad team starting a third-string quarterback. Losing in that scenario is obviously a troubling sign for the program, even if it should have won. More concerning may have simply been that it was as close a game as it was. The Deacons have a decent defense, and Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled all season. Let’s start there. What have you seen from junior quarterback Christian Veilleux. In his second career start — and let’s reiterate that Wake Forest’s current strength is its defense — the Penn State transfer threw for more than 300 yards but on just 6.7 yards per pass attempt. He did not turn over the ball, but he could not create a consistent offense. What indications have you seen that he may worry Notre Dame this weekend, if any?
NH: I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Veilleux through two starts. Quarterback has been a major issue for this program since Kenny Pickett’s departure. Phil Jurkovec was supposed to be the answer, but as we all know now, he wasn’t. As a junior with two seasons of eligibility after this year, Veilleux gives Pitt fans a reason to be encouraged. He throws a nice ball and makes good decisions.
His pocket awareness is solid — Pitt has only allowed one sack in his two starts. The deep ball is Veilleux’s best friend. Four of his five touchdown passes this year are from 20-plus yards. Saturday will be, without question, the biggest challenge of his young career, but he unquestionably gives Pitt its best shot to win against Notre Dame.
10 of Pitt's 11 starters on today's offense have at least one year of eligibility remaining. The lone player who can't return is C'Bo Flemister. The rest of the group can return next year.
— Noah Hiles (@_NoahHiles) October 21, 2023
The best piece of the Panthers’ offense last week was running back C’Bo Flemister. Yes, Irish fans, that C’Bo Flemister. It came a bit out of nowhere, running for 105 yards on 23 carries when his previous season highs were 41 yards and 13 carries. Either Pittsburgh saw a wrinkle to use against Wake Forest or Flemister is needed to buttress Veilleux. How do you see that progressing?
Flemister’s production this year has been a surprise. Rodney Hammond Jr. was supposed to be the guy Pitt relied on, but he’s yet to have a 15-plus carry game. C’Bo looked fine against Wake Forest, but I’d argue his numbers make him look better than what he really was. Vellieux was the top performer last week, especially when it mattered. Flemister had three rushes on third or fourth down last week. None resulted in a first down. Veilleux, on the other hand, was great when it mattered, completing 10-of-14 passes for 134 yards, eight first downs and a touchdown. Flemister will likely be the main running back, but if Pitt hopes to win, it’s going to have to do it through the air. This team has struggled to run against pretty much any opponent.
While on former Notre Dame players, let’s acknowledge the most notable one who probably will not see the field in his second trip back to South Bend. Were you surprised when Phil Jurkovec was benched for Veilleux? There’s no chance we see him Saturday, right?
The only surprise is how long it took for Jurkovec to get benched. Veilleux should’ve been named the starter after the West Virginia loss on Sept. 16.
If that move was made, then Pitt is probably boasting a better record than 2-5. You won’t see Phil at quarterback Saturday. He’s been practicing tight end over the past few weeks, but not in a team setting — just individual drills. If we see him at all, it might be on special teams or on a trick play. His quarterback days are over.
I struggle to appropriately convey how woeful the Panthers’ offense is this season. It does not do anything well, simply enough. Defensively, though, Pittsburgh remains above average, as one would expect from any Pat Narduzzi team.
That said, even the Panthers’ defense is only above average, far from the stellar unit it often has been. Look no further than Wake Forest’s game-winning drive, covering 48 yards in six plays and 33 seconds. As much as the Irish offense has struggled the last month, it might find passing success against Pittsburgh. How did Narduzzi’s defense backslide like this? It’s not bad, don’t get me wrong, but it is average. After the 2021 season, the SP+ ratings had the Panthers defense 16 spots better than they do right now. Narduzzi can no longer rely on it to cover up any offensive issues.
This team is replacing a ton of talent from last year. Simply put, the guys who replaced former Pitt stars like Calijah Kancey, SirVocea Dennis and Erick Hallett II haven’t been as good. There are potential stars on this defensive line, but they’re very young. The top guys to truly look out for are in the secondary. Cornerbacks MJ Devonshire and Marquis Williams are both very good. Donovan McMillion and Javon McIntyre are both solid safeties, as is Phillip O’Brien Jr. Pitt is typically great on defense because of its front seven. This year’s front seven is made up of sixth-year guys who are just above average, or very young players who are a season or two away from reaching their true potential.
Pat Narduzzi says the slide rule should be reviewed. "The slide rule is to protect the quarterback. It would've been nice for the officials to review the play. That's what most quarterbacks would do [on that play]." #Pitt
— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) October 23, 2023
Those are the broad-stroke topics, Pittsburgh now somewhat a perfectly pedestrian team. Its record looks even worse, 2-5. Aside from sliding a yard too early, how has the season tilted against the Panthers like this?
I’d put the bulk of the blame on the offense. The defense played well enough for this team to beat Cincinnati, West Virginia and Wake Forest.
For the first five games, Pitt just didn’t have the right guy at quarterback. Its offensive line has suffered some serious injuries and that, paired with Jurkovec, led to four-straight losses in September. The Louisville game marked a changing of the guard.
A few new offensive linemen got their first chance to play together and Veilleux got his first start. Things have been better, but still not good enough. Pitt is at least moving the football, but play calling has prevented the offense from reaching its full potential with Veilleux as the starter. They’ve been too cautious with him. They need to start calling the game like Jurkovec is no longer the quarterback. Narduzzi even admitted this Monday during his press conference.
Before getting to a prediction for this weekend, what have I missed here? Any names, schemes or overall topics to note?
Kenny Johnson is a player to watch. He’s a freshman receiver who gets more involved each week. Last week he had his first touchdown catch. Last month against North Carolina, he returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. People within the program think he could truly be something special. I definitely see the potential. He’s not a star yet, but I think he will be one day.
And lastly, a prediction. Notre Dame is favored by 20.5 points. What do you expect to see Saturday night?
Notre Dame 34, Pitt 27.
Before everyone reads this and laughs at me, please hear me out. Pitt and Notre Dame always seem to play a close game in South Bend. Each of their last six contests at Notre Dame were decided by a single score. Notre Dame has plenty of more exciting games to look forward to than Pitt, and Pat Narduzzi’s teams play their best against good competition. Notre Dame is going to win this game, but I think the Panthers will make it interesting until Sam Hartman ultimately puts things to an end late in the fourth quarter.
Sometimes teams rush against you a lot because you have the No. 1 pass defense in the country (ND), and sometimes teams rush against you a lot because your rush defense is only okay, actually kinda bad (Pitt). https://t.co/74jI3X3x4J
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 24, 2023