Before the 2024 college football season kicked off, I’m not sure anyone would have predicted some of its wildest moments. Who saw Vandy’s win over then-No. 1 Alabama coming? Or Colorado’s Hail Mary and overtime win over Baylor? The unpredictability is part of what makes this sport so fun.
But there’s plenty that we can predict as we look to the second half of this season. I feel like it’s safe to say we’ll have at least one meaningful rematch — be it Oregon-Ohio State or Texas-Georgia or a regular-season rivalry renewed in the College Football Playoff. And, well, there are some coaches whose seats are hot and getting hotter. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to look at Billy Napier and Florida’s remaining schedule and conclude that it doesn’t look great for his future employment.
Here’s what to watch I’m watching for in the second half of the season:
Games of note
Georgia at Texas, Week 8: We’ll get our third top-five matchup of the season so far this Saturday in Austin, kicking off the back half of the season with a bang. The Longhorns might be the most complete team in the sport, but the defense hasn’t really been tested yet after playing a pair of anemic offenses (Michigan and Oklahoma) in its biggest games so far. And a Georgia team that’s missing some of the playmaking ability it’s had in recent years — in the pass game, there’s no Brock Bowers as a security blanket, but the run game hasn’t produced a 100-yard rusher in any game either — it’s still going to be a great test for Texas. This game will tell us if the Longhorns are a great team in a season that is mostly marked by good-but-flawed teams or if they’re going to join the rest of the SEC (and college football) in a state of total chaos.
Boise State at UNLV, Week 9: This might be the game of the year in the Group of 5 (at least until we get to the Army-Navy game). But both of these teams acquitted themselves quite well in nonconference play — and the Rebels even survived a wild NIL dispute that forced a quarterback change — which means that if either wins the Mountain West, it would be well-positioned to land the Group of 5 champion spot in the CFP bracket. The Mountain West champion just needs to be ranked higher than the rest of the G5 champions, and right now, Boise State checks in at No. 15 in the AP poll, ahead of Army (No. 23) and Navy (No. 25) out of the American Athletic Conference. There’s a lot to still determine in all of these leagues’ races, but it’s clear that Boise State-UNLV will have so much at stake, with the winner in the driver’s seat to make it to the league championship game.
Ohio State at Penn State, Week 10: The Buckeyes might need to win out to force a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, and there are a few potential pitfalls on their schedule in the second half of the season (like Indiana, for example). This is the big one, both because Penn State has played relatively well so far and is trying to close the gap between itself and the top teams in the country and also because it’s at Happy Valley, a notoriously difficult place to play. This game could be the reason the Nittany Lions break through and earn their first-ever trip to the CFP or it could be yet another missed opportunity that will leave James Franklin kicking himself.
Clemson at Pittsburgh, Week 12: This game might determine the ACC championship game matchup. I know that might be a bold proclamation, but this is a weird and unpredictable season, with Pitt undefeated at midseason. Clemson has been playing well since its Week 1 loss to Georgia. Neither of these teams has Miami on its remaining schedule, which likely means that the ‘Canes make it to Charlotte relatively unscathed — to face one of these two teams ... or maybe the dark horse SMU? We’ll see which twists and turns await in the ACC race, but it’s clear that this matchup will have a big impact on it.
Texas at Texas A&M, Week 14: These two in-state rivals are set to meet for the first time in more than a decade, and it’s possible that this is a mega-showdown by the time we get to Nov. 30. Texas is one of the best teams in the country already, and I fully expect them to stay in the top five or so throughout the season (even if the Longhorns drop Saturday’s game to Georgia). But it’s possible Texas A&M enters this game as a one-loss, top-10 team as well. The Aggies’ remaining schedule prior to their season finale is not exactly murderers’ row. For the sake of the story and the stakes, I hope we get a one-loss or undefeated Texas vs. one-loss Texas A&M in an epic return to one of the sport’s greatest rivalries.
Kansas State at Iowa State, Week 14: The Big 12 race is probably going to be the wackiest of all the power-conference races this season. It’s already been surprising, with Texas Tech, Iowa State and BYU tied atop the standings at the midpoint of the season. It is truly one of those leagues where most anybody can beat most anybody else on any given Saturday, so I’m not even sure if I can pinpoint which games will impact the race most down the stretch. I took a stab and landed on this game, because I’m not ready to write the Wildcats off completely after that blowout loss to BYU — and I do think Matt Campbell’s crew will have a say in things late, too. Don’t be surprised if the winner of this game gets the Cougars in the title game.
Power-conference coaches on the hot seat?
Billy Napier, Florida: No one’s seat is hotter than Napier’s. We had all wondered if Florida would make an early-season change after two losses in the Gators’ first three games, but the administration has been patient so far as the team has battled on Napier’s behalf. (It’s worth noting that there isn’t an obvious interim candidate on this staff. And there is some significant university leadership turmoil.) The remaining schedule is brutal, with games against Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss over four consecutive weeks in November. The Gators also just lost starting quarterback Graham Mertz for the year. Napier is 14-17 over 2.5 seasons in Gainesville, and it certainly feels like it’s just a matter of time for him, barring an unforeseen run over the second half of the season.
An interesting dynamic down the stretch here could be regarding Napier’s potential successor. The early signing period is moving up this year to a three-day stretch before FBS championship weekend. The transfer portal opens on Dec. 9. In recent years, we’ve seen athletic directors fire coaches early in order to make hires before the portal opens and the early signing period begins. But if Florida wants a coach whose team makes the 12-team CFP, that coach may not be available until late December or even January. Could that impact this process?
Dave Aranda, Baylor: The Bears are 2-4 on the season, with a couple of brutal losses including one to Colorado in which they failed to successfully defend a Hail Mary attempt twice (!) at the end of regulation. That loss felt a potential nail in the coffin for a coach who is just 11-20 since a spectacular 12-win campaign in his second season. Aranda nearly lost his job at the end of last season but instead made staff changes to try to turn the trajectory around. So far, it’s not working, with Baylor tied for last in the Big 12 standings alongside fellow disappointments, Oklahoma State and Kansas. It’s a particularly frustrating season when you consider how wide-open the conference is — and the Bears aren’t factoring into the Big 12 race at all. And the final five opponents on Baylor’s schedule this season are sub-.500 teams, which means losses to teams like that could make this decision ultimately fairly easy.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas: Pittman’s seat cooled considerably after the Razorbacks’ big win over then-No. 4 Tennessee earlier this month. But it’s a situation to monitor, especially with former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino on staff and perhaps waiting in the wings. If the season ended today, I’d think Pittman was safe. But there are games against two-sub. 500 teams (Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech) still to play, and matchups against LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri — who all, in theory, could be beatable — that could factor into how the administration views Pittman’s fifth season (as could a currently slumping Tennessee team). As we sit here at the midseason of Year 5, Pittman’s overall record stands at 27-27. This is a hard job that’s only getting harder in the expanded SEC.
Mack Brown, UNC: This one is a bit of a unique situation. The Tar Heels have had decent success in Brown’s second stint, but they’ve had issues on the defensive side of the ball that continue to plague them year over year. And there was a weird subplot to UNC’s embarrassing loss to JMU (in which the Tar Heels allowed a program-record 70 points to the Dukes) after which reports emerged that Brown said he would step down. It turns out, he was just emotional and trying to take accountability for a bad loss, but it certainly planted a seed in the minds of many across the industry that the 73-year-old head coach might want to hang ‘em up at the end of this season. The Tar Heels have lost four consecutive games (including to Georgia Tech last Saturday, while playing with heavy hearts after losing former player Tylee Craft to cancer).
Brown, one of the most influential voices in the sport, has also lamented the state of college football today, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him opt to remove himself from the 24/7/365 recruiting and roster management environment that defines the job of a college football head coach in 2024 (with revenue-sharing coming next fall to boot). I wonder — and would pose the question both to the UNC administration and to Brown himself — if there might be a better path forward for the Tar Heel program.
Group of 5 hot seats to track: Will Hall (Southern Miss), Trent Dilfer (UAB) and Mike Bloomgren (Rice)
The impact of the expanded College Football Playoff
It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of the new 12-team CFP. I’ve wanted the sport to increase access to its marquee postseason event for years, and we’re already seeing the benefit of that. Teams with a September loss aren’t completely written off, which keeps more teams and fan bases engaged in the season overall. The Group of 5 races have more at stake, too. And the genius of the 12-team model the way it was constructed is that there are three different goals for teams in the mix to shoot for — a top-four seed that includes a first-round bye (for the four highest-ranked conference champions), seeds 5-8 which mean hosting games on-campus and everyone else fighting to make the CFP at all.
What I’m most looking forward to in the coming weeks is experiencing mid- to late November. I want to see just how many teams are alive in their conference races and as at-large CFP contenders. I want to see what it looks like and how it feels to have so much still at stake at that point of the season. That will be the true test of success in the new expanded Playoff, and even thought I know it’ll be far better than it was over the past decade, I still can’t wait to see exactly how it shakes out.
