Notre Dame is certainly capable of playing a wide-open game, even if the last two weeks have strongly suggested otherwise. The No. 10 Irish (5-1) have scored just 35 points combined in back-to-back primetime matchups against undefeated top-20 opponents, a touchdown fewer than the fewest they had tallied in the four previous games.
The scoring downtick was intentional, as much as such a thing ever is. Notre Dame wanted to limit Ohio State’s chances to out-talent the Irish with the Buckeyes’ elite skill-position players, and a game with only eight possessions each served that function. Then Notre Dame was down to just three receivers at Duke last week — freshman Jaden Greathouse and junior Jayden Thomas are both expected back in action this week, coming back from mild hamstring aggravations — needing to keep players fresh enough for the second half and thus cutting the game down to 11 possessions.
But Notre Dame can play quicker, a game with more variance. At North Carolina State, there were 15 possessions, and that is how the Irish scored 45 points.
Facing No. 25 Louisville (5-0) at 7:30 ET on ABC could fall somewhere between those two approaches.
The Cardinals have talented skill-position players aplenty to worry Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. Senior running back Jawhar Jordan has four explosive touchdowns this season, Georgia State transfer receiver Jamari Thrash has two and his speed makes him perpetually a threat for another, and junior receiver Ahmari Huggins-Bruce adds another two.
If the Irish have their way, the focus will be on Thrash and Huggins-Bruce, not Jordan, averaging 7.73 yards per carry.
“Our challenge is to make sure they become one-dimensional,” head coach Marcus Freeman said Thursday. “We have to stop the run. That’s going to be so important. When we force them to throw the ball, then we have to be good.
“We have to limit the explosive plays, and we have to tackle.”
Take that step by step.
First, stopping Louisville’s rushing attack. There are two ways to do it. One, the obvious, defensively. The Cardinals succeed on more than 56 percent of their rushing attempts, No. 6 in the country — “success” in this instance is measured by progress against the chains by down. Some focus will be on Notre Dame’s edge defenders to keep Jordan contained.
“Jordan is a home run threat,” Freeman said. “We’ve shown our defense the multiple explosive plays that he’s had. He has elite speed and ability.”
Veteran Big ends Nana Osafo-Mensah and Javontae Jean-Baptiste should be disciplined enough to keep Jordan hemmed in on one side of the line, perhaps sacrificing some tackles for loss or pressure in order to make sure the edge is set and maintained. But opposite them, senior Jordan Botelho will miss the first half this weekend thanks to a targeting penalty in the second half at Duke, leaving sophomores Joshua Burnham and Junior Tuihalamaka in bigger roles than usual.
That's Rule 9, Section 1, Articles 3 and 4, Note 1.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 1, 2023
In layman's term: See what you hit. It's to protect a *defender's* neck, so it doesn't matter that it was Riley Leonard's hip. The worry was Botelho's neck.
Again, hate the rule if you want, but Botelho couldn't see what he hit
“Those guys have been playing well all season in their opportunities,” Freeman said. “I’m excited to see what they do with these opportunities now, being able to go out there and play the majority of the first half.”
If either sophomore misfits a run lane, Jordan could be in the end zone before the mistake is realized.
The other way to make Louisville one-dimensional may be Notre Dame’s preference, and that’s to create an early lead. The Cardinals are prone to passing more than most teams, anyway, doing so 4 percent more often than game state would usually indicate, No. 41 in the country. If the Irish open up a quick lead, then Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm will resort to his inner-quarterback, once a star for the Cardinals, and start heaving the ball.
That sounds like a wide-open game, one with 15 possessions, at least out of the gate. At which point, Freeman said, “When we force them to throw the ball, then we have to be good.”
Simply enough, Louisville has not yet faced a passing defense like Notre Dame’s this season. In terms of expected points added per dropback against, the Irish defense ranks No. 15 in the country, 35 spots better than the next best unit the Cardinals have faced, North Carolina State a week ago. Note: The Wolfpack gave up 13 points to Louisville.
Duke was 0-3 throwing at Cam Hart last night.
— Greg Flammang (@greg2126) October 1, 2023
On the season, Notre Dame opponents are 4-16 when targeting a Cam Hart receiver this year.
Only defender who comes close to that recently is Kyle Hamilton in 2019, when teams were 8-24 for the season against him.
From there, “We have to limit the explosive plays, and we have to tackle.”
Those are one and the same. The Cardinals rank No. 3 in the country with 9.24 yards after catch per reception against FBS opponents. More sincerely, they rank No. 1, only bettered by Air Force and Army, two service academies who throw exclusively when they sense an explosive play. Hemming in that aspect of Louisville’s offense will also curtail much of its scoring. Against Indiana and North Carolina State, the only two not-terrible defenses the Cardinals have faced, they scored three touchdowns on big-plays while managing just 16 other points on six other sustained drives.
Scoring 2.67 points per quality possession is abysmal, but that’s what Louisville manages when it does not explode downfield. Forcing the Cardinals to abandon the run would arguably increase that risk factor, but if Notre Dame knows the pass is coming, trusting its top-tier cornerback duo, underrated pass rush and the No. 3 passer rating defense could — should? — eliminate those big plays.
In that scenario, no matter how many drives there are Saturday night, Louisville should not be able to keep up with Sam Hartman and the Irish. Even if they managed a quality drive on every possession of the second half, scoring less than a field goal per effort would total fewer than two touchdowns.
If Notre Dame opts to open up the game again.
Notre Dame has given up one explosive touchdown in six games this season outside of garbage time. https://t.co/xFRUnTDY06
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 4, 2023
