Tonight we have a huge MLB DFS slate, with some strong pitching and hitting to target, and that always makes for a fun night of daily fantasy baseball.
As always, make sure to check MLB lineups and MLB weather before lineup lock. Now, let’s get into some of my top DFS plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pitcher
Caleb Smith @ Detroit Tigers
We have some great pitching options at the top tonight, but it’s hard to pass on Smith against the Tigers. This Detroit lineup has six batters with strikeout rates over 20% against left-handed pitching. Smith has been great this season, and he’s projected to face nine right-handed hitters here tonight. He has a .266 wOBA with a .189 ISO and a 37.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. Justin Verlander is in a great spot too, but I like the discount from Verlander to Smith on this slate.
Domingo German @ Baltimore Orioles
The more I look at this matchup, the more I want to play German. There are a lot of strikeouts to be had in this Baltimore lineup. They have six hitters with strikeout rates over 20% against right-handed pitching this season. And with Happ struggling in this spot yesterday and so many good pitchers on this slate, German could have lower ownership than most in this price range. He has a 3.96 xFIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 12.9% swinging strike rate on the season, and while his pitch count limits his upside, this Baltimore team doesn’t walk enough to make me worry much about that.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez @ Baltimore Orioles
If you’re paying up, Sanchez draws an excellent matchup against David Hess. I like to pay down at catcher on DraftKings, and depending who is in the lineup, I will be looking to pay down when I’m not playing Sanchez. Hess has struggled badly with right-handed hitters this season, as he has a .397 wOBA with a .402 ISO and a 30.7% hard to soft contact ratio. Meanwhile, Sanchez has a .370 ISO with a .415 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2019. There is a massive amount of upside for Sanchez on this slate.
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First Base
Daniel Vogelbach @ Texas Rangers
I love to target the Mariners when they’re on the road, and now they’re in a particularly great spot in Texas. Lance Lynn has struggled against lefties for a few seasons now, and that’s been the case again this season. He has a .359 wOBA with a .142 ISO and a 16.9% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of 2018. Vogelbach has 207 PAs against righties since the start of 2018, and he has a .312 ISO with a .416 wOBA and a 46.2% hard-hit rate in that span. The big man is one of my favorite plays on this slate, and I like the Seattle bats around him too.
Second Base
Robinson Cano vs. Washington Nationals
I’m not expecting Fedde to pitch more than 60-70 pitches tonight, which means we should see a lot of the bullpen for Washington. Robinson Cano continues to be a great value across the industry, and I think he’s a strong option for cash games tonight. He has a low strikeout rate with a low walk rate, which usually means he’s putting the ball in play a lot. Cano also has a .178 ISO with a .341 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Third Base
Matt Carpenter vs. Kansas City Royals
The Cardinals are one of my favorite teams to target tonight, but we have to check the weather once we get closer to lineup lock. If the weather is going to come halfway through and be bad enough to end this game, we have to move off the Cardinals bats. That said, the matchup is amazing. Homer Bailey has a 48.7% hard-hit rate this season, to go with only a 12.6% soft-hit rate. With some many hitters in this lineup with a hard-hit rate over 40%, there are going to be a lot of hard-hit balls in this one. Carpenter continues to struggle, but he has too much talent to fade in this spot.
Shortstop
Jorge Polanco @ Los Angeles Angels
If you’re playing on DraftKings, I think Brandon Crawford is a legit option at his $2,900 price tag against Julio Teheran. Trevor Cahill continues to allow a lot of home runs and continues to struggle with left-handed hitters. He has a .453 wOBA with a .313 ISO and a 50.8% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Polanco has been great this season, as he has a .299 ISO with a .444 wOBA against right-handed pitching. If you’re spending up, he’s one of my favorite options, and if the Cardinals weather becomes an issue, I’ll be targeting the Twins to replace them.
Outfield
Josh Reddick vs. Chicago White Sox
I’m a fan of Houston tonight, and if Reddick his hitting leadoff, he’s a nice value in this situation. I still like him if he’s hitting fifth or sixth as well, though. Covey has a .420 wOBA with an 8.8% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season, while Reddick has changed his approach at the plate and is hitting .331 on the year. I hate looking at batting average, but that’s a massive increase for him from last season to this season. Reddick is a great cash game option in this spot tonight, and I don’t mind him in tournaments either.
Max Kepler @ Los Angeles Angels
The sites are finally raising the price of Max Kepler, but he’s still not priced highly enough for this matchup. Like I mentioned above, Trevor Cahill has really struggled with left-handed hitters and home runs this season. Kepler has a .258 ISO with a .358 wOBA and a 42.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. His 325.3 average air distance against right-handed pitching stands out to me in this spot. I love the floor/upside in this matchup for Kepler, and he’s one of my favorite hitters on this slate.
