So much for waiting for Juan Soto to set the market.
Willy Adames is now off the market, with Jeff Passan reporting that the Giants have signed Adames to a seven-year, $182 million contract. The deal is pending a physical -- and it’s worth pointing out what happened the last time the Giants signed a shortstop to a deal like this -- but it does appear that the 29-year-old infielder is going to be taking his talents to the Bay Area.
It goes without saying that this is a significant addition because look at that contract, but how much impact does Adames joining San Francisco make from a fantasy perspective?
What does Willy Adames do well?
Quite a bit. Adames has spent seven years in the majors since being promoted by the Rays in 2018, and he’s forged a slash of .248/.322/.444 with an even 150 homers in 3.5 (ish) seasons with Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. He’s hit at least 20 homers in every 162-game season -- and he would have very likely reached that mark in 2020 if not for the truncated campaign -- and he’s gone over 30 homers twice in the last three years.
But at least from a fantasy perspective, there was a big jump forward for Adames in 2024, things escalated. The right-handed hitter set career highs with 32 homers, 112 RBI and 21 stolen bases. That last number being his high is quite the understatement; Adames has never stolen more than eight bases in a season, and the 25 attempts were more than double his previous top mark of 11.
Simplified, Adames has (almost) always been a decent fantasy option, but to say he was better than decent in 2024 is quite the understatement.
Were the numbers deserved from an analytical perspective?
Pretty much. Adames was well above-average in several categories according to Baseball Savant that you want to see from a power-hitting shortstop. Or any other position, to be fair. He barreled the baseball 12 percent of the time, which puts him in the top 81 percent of all qualified hitters. That helped him to an expected slugging mark of .462, which is a tick above in the 82nd percentile. He walked in 10.8 percent of his plate appearances which is also in the 80th group, and his expected weight on-base average -- or exWOBA -- was a very strong .339 (76 percentile). Add in a hard-hit rate above 40 percent and you can understand why Adames was so good in 2024.
What’s the risk?
Adames was fantastic in 2024. He was less so in 2023 when he hit just .217 with a .717 OPS in 638 at-bats with the Brew Crew. That was easily his worst year, but we’re not talking about a hitter who has put together elite offensive campaigns -- outside of 2024, perhaps -- with a career-high OPS of .818 in 2021.
And one of the reasons that Adames has failed to post those elite numbers -- again, not counting last year -- is that he strikes out. A lot. His .248 batting average is in large part due to those punchouts, as he’s struck out at least 15 times in each of his full seasons. Some of this is because Adames is a patient hitter who is willing to work counts, but also because he has a long swing that is not geared toward contact. His 29.5 percent whiff rate in 2024 helps tell that story more succinctly.
Does Adames boost the Giants pitching staff at all?
He should. While Adames is not a speed demon, he’s been known for being a very reliable defensive player. He has a strong throwing arm, and ranks 50th among all active players in defensive WAR over his career. At some point he’ll likely need to make the move over to third base and there was talk that he was willing to make that move to the hot corner if needed. That won’t be the case in 2025, however, and the San Francisco hurlers should feel good about Adames lineup between second and third.
Is this a good lineup and park fit for Adames?
It could be a lot worse, but it could’ve been a lot better.
It’s hard to ignore some of the teams who were reportedly interested in adding Adames to the fold. The Yankees were reportedly making a push for the infielder, and that would have been a heck of a fantasy fit even if it likely would’ve meant him playing third base. There was also talk of the Dodgers and Atlanta showing interest, and all due respect to San Francisco, those would have been more appealing landing spots. A chance to drive in players like a healthy Jung Ho Lee, Heliot Ramos and likely another free agent bat or two doesn’t hurt, however.
And, of course, there’s the park factor. Oracle Park is a wonderful ballpark, but it is not a great place for homers. In fact, it ranks dead last from 2022-2024 in Park Factor for dingers, and while some of that has to do with the Giants not having elite power bats, there’s no denying this isn’t the most ideal park for Adames’ skill set. Just remember half the games will be played away from San Francisco, so don’t go too crazy “downgrading” his situation.
Should fantasy managers be happy right now with Adames’ situation?
Well, they should be happy for Adames that he’s getting life-changing money and getting to play in one of the best parks in the country.
As for the fantasy situation, it’s a little murky. The concern for me is the lack of players around Adames in the lineup right now, and while that could change very quickly during the winter meetings, this is not likely to be one of the better lineups in the National League. And again, the fact that the stadium is so mean to homer hitters can’t be ignored.
The real question for me is whether or not we’re going to see Adames run in 2025. And here’s the thing: He’s going from the team that stole more bases than all but the Reds, to the team that stole fewer bases than all but the Twins. It seems pretty unlikely that you’re going to see Adames attempt 25 stolen bases again, and it seems just as likely he doesn’t come close to the 112 RBI he accrued.
In 2024, Adames was a top five fantasy shortstop in standard leagues. He won’t likely reach those lofty heights again this summer, but he’s certainly good enough to be in starting lineups to begin the campaign.
