You know what’s not fun? When you feel like the season is slipping away from you, but there’s nothing that you can really do to stop it. At least that’s what it feels like on another Sunday evening after we’ve watched our squads tumble down the standings yet again.
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Hitting Review
Note to self, never tempt the fantasy gods to meddle in my affairs, as they’re a hilariously rambunctious lot.
I made a note at the end of last week’s column – after two huge weeks on the hitting side and getting destroyed in pitching – something to the tune of, I don’t care what the offense gives us this week, just find a correction for the pitching side. I see that request was honored to the fullest.
In what was a tremendous step back on offense, we managed only 284 at-bats and fell woefully short of each and every categorical target: Runs (-7.9), HR (-6), RBI (-8.8), SB (-1.9) and batting average (-0.025).
So what went wrong? I’d like to exclusively blame the missed at-bats, but that was only part of the problem. Jose Ramirez played just one game over the weekend as he hit the paternity list following Friday’s game. Justyn-Henry Malloy sat a couple of games, Tyler O’Neill missed Sunday’s game and Jurickson Profar missed a pair mid-week with a knee issue. That’s all normal day-to-day business stuff.
We also had poor managing, or at least poor luck with what we did choose, as we only had five home runs total on the week – but left four homers on the bench over the weekend (Kepler, Arozarena, Melendez and Sosa). The first three were in our lineup for the first half of the week, where Arozarena and Melendez each went hitless, while Kepler went 2-for-12 (.167) and was due to face a left-hander over the weekend.
So did anyone on the offense come to play this week? A couple of guys did. Jarren Duran hit .440 (11-for-25) with six runs scored, four RBI and a pair of stolen bases. That certainly helped the cause.
Luis Rengifo hit .320 with a pair of runs, two RBI and a stolen base. That’ll play. Ezequiel Tovar homered and drove in a team-leading six runs – we’ll take that.
Profar, even with a few missed games, still contributed three runs and three RBI. Jake Fraley did a nice job and added a swipe over the weekend. William Contreras homered, stole a base and provided nice counting stats.
Paul Goldschmidt, Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jo Adell each homered, but did very little else the rest of the week. Jose Ramirez stole a base, but didn’t do much else before hitting the paternity list. Everything else was a big pile of meh.
So what do we do to improve it? Frankly, I’m not sure at the moment. Part of it simply has to be the guys that we’re trusting to do the job, simply rebounding and having a better week next week. It doesn’t inspire much confidence, but that’s what we’re left with at the moment.
Taking a look at our season-long numbers with the updated categorical totals, here’s where we currently stand. Even after the down week, we still are working with a surplus of 23 runs. The brutal week in home runs has pushed us to -12 in the category while we’re now -26 in RBI. Seems like power should be a focus for us in our lineup decisions if possible. We are exactly even on the number that we’re looking for in stolen bases while still chasing seven points in batting average.
Pitching Review
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The week started out very well – at least on the ratio front – but the battle for victories continues to be insanely infuriating.
We entered the week expecting to have 11 starts total – five doubles and a single from Verlander.
Three of those doubles took the hill on Monday night, with Corbin Burnes and Ryan Pepiot squaring off against one another. While we have struggled to earn wins in those spots this year, that had to be a game that we nabbed a win from. Pepiot wound up getting hit hardest of the two, though a questionable hit call cost him two of his four earned runs in the start. He allowed nine walks+hits over his six frames, though he helped to make up for it with nine strikeouts. Burnes was excellent though, striking out six batters over seven shutout innings to nab our first win of the week. We were off and running!
Erick Fedde then took the hill on Monday night and dazzled in his start against the Mariners. He carried a 4-0 lead into the eighth inning when he served up a leadoff solo homer to Dominic Canzone before turning the ball over to Michael Kopech. Six batters later, Mitch Haniger blooped a two-strike, two-run single into right field to cut Fedde’s lead to one run. Luke Raley followed with a bunt single to plate the tying run and take the hard-earned victory away from Fedde. We’ll take the strong ratios and four strikeouts, but that absolutely should have been a win. It’s even more irritating when you remember that Fedde is on all three of our CLQ rosters.
It looked as though the universe was trying to correct that error on Monday night, as Josh Hader worked a scoreless ninth inning against the Giants to send the game to extras. The Astros then plated two runs in the top of the 10th inning, putting him in line for a win. It took just three batters for Rafael Montero to allow a pair of run-scoring singles to spoil that dream though.
Trevor Megill continued his dominance on Monday with a scoreless ninth inning against the Blue Jays to protect a two-run lead. He has been perhaps our most important FAAB addition this season.
Back at it on Tuesday, we had our last two prospective double starters taking the hill in Kutter Crawford and FAAB addition James Paxton. Crawford pitched well in a losing effort against the Phillies, allowing just two earned runs over six innings of work with a 1.17 WHIP and eight strikeouts. Again, we’ll take the performance, but no victory to be had there. Despite his strong results this season, Crawford is stuck on just two wins.
Run support was not an issue for Paxton though, as the Dodgers’ offense exploded and provided him way more offense than he was ever going to need. The 35-year-old southpaw did his part as well, allowing just one run over six innings with a 0.67 WHIP and a pair of strikeouts to nab our second win of the week. Unfortunately, his second start wound up getting pushed on the week as the Dodgers went with a bullpen game on Thursday. We’re now going to have decisions on what to do with Paxton for next week.
Alexis Diaz got some work in on Wednesday, retiring the Guardians in order in the ninth inning to earn his first save of the week. Trevor Megill also came on and cleaned up the mess that Hoby Milner got in to start the ninth inning, escaping with a one-run lead to nab his 11th save of the season. It’s always nice to hit the weekly save target on Wednesday. Now let’s pile on and create a surplus there.
On Friday night we did add another save to the total, as Alexis Diaz was able to bend but not break in the ninth inning, ultimately stranding the tying run at third as Blake Perkins attempted to bunt to force in the tying run but popped it up to Diaz.
We had high hopes heading into Saturday with three starters scheduled to take the hill, but that hope evaporated pretty quickly. Early in the morning, news came out that Verlander had been scratched from his scheduled start due to tightness in his neck. It might be an IL situation, but either way it gives us a complete zero out of that roster spot for this week. Wonderful.
Pepiot then took the hill against the Braves for his second start of the week. All was well through the first 4 2/3 innings, as he had punched out four batters and hadn’t allowed a run while nursing a 1-0 lead. Five batters and three home runs later, and Pepiot was pulled after a disastrous outing that tanked both our ERA (9.643) and WHIP (1.929). Life comes at you fast sometimes.
Fortunately, we had Fedde taking the mound against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Saturday night to erase the bad taste out of our mouths. He came through in a big way, giving up two earned runs on eight hits over six innings while striking out six in a victory. That’s three on the week.
Trevor Megill also snagged his third save of the week on Saturday, bringing our total up to five on the week. We’ll take that.
On Sunday, we had our final two starts of the week – Burnes and Crawford each on the second half of their two-steps. Burnes came through as you would expect your first round pick to do – giving up two runs over six innings while striking out seven and cruising to a win over the Phillies. We have finally hit four wins in a week.
We wouldn’t stay there long though, as Kutter Crawford was terrific on Sunday night against the Yankees, racking up nine strikeouts over six innings of three-run ball with only four walks+hits allowed to pick up yet another win. Five on the week. Five!
Trevor Megill also continued to do the heavy lifting, closing out the Reds yet again on Sunday to tally his fourth save of the week. That gave us six for the period, despite getting zero from Josh Hader.
For the week, we surpassed our targets in strikeouts (+4.2), wins (+1) and saves (+2.8) while just barely missing both ratio targets in what was a very solid week all around from the pitching staff. To think how much bigger it could have been if we didn’t take a zero from Verlander, lose out on a Paxton start and lose a couple of wins that we should have had to start the week.
We need to keep the momentum from this strong week and keep it going into Week 13. The pitching needs to carry the offense now.
FAAB Plan
Okay, deep breaths.
This week obviously didn’t go according to plan and our slippery slope down the standings has continued. We’re also facing a severely diminished FAAB budget and really have to shop from the discount bins for the next few weeks. This isn’t going to be easy, and the way things are going at the moment it’s certainly not fun or enjoyable.
Let’s take a look though and see what needs to be done.
The biggest issue right now – for the upcoming week – is on the pitching side. We entered this week with just 10 pitchers on the roster, nine of them active, and Shane Baz whose promotion from Triple-A Durham we are eagerly awaiting.
That means that barring any changes, we need to start those nine live arms next week. There’s a couple of issues with that though. Verlander was scratched from his lone start this week (Saturday) due to neck discomfort. There’s no guarantee that he’s going to be able to make a start next week, or that he’ll avoid the injured list. It would be lunacy to not add another arm to be able to start in his place.
That means we need a minimum of one drop. But wait, there’s more to consider. James Paxton filled in admirably for us this week – despite the fact that he had his second start pushed and the Dodgers are now rolling with a six-man rotation. That also means that he won’t double during the upcoming week since the Dodgers only play six games. So what type of matchup does the Big Maple draw? I’m glad you asked. He gets to take on the Rockies at Coors Field. Woof. Now, the Rockies haven’t been a scary offense this season, but Coors Field can always be a house of horrors for any opposing pitcher. Not that it matters much since he’s a completely different pitcher these days, but let’s at least look and see how Paxton has fared at Coors Field in the past – I’m actually shocked to learn that he has never pitched there. Interesting. If we need wins as badly as we do, Paxton against the Rockies is probably going to be a favorite – even at Coors. It all depends on if we think we can find two pitching options on the waiver wire that are better. That’s a big ask.
Coming off of another big save week – and dealing with our massive deficit in victories and the fact that we have no two-start pitchers lined up for the upcoming week – we also may want to consider sitting one of our three closers to get an extra start or two in there. If so, we probably hang on to Paxton and still add two pitchers.
Lots of moving pieces to consider. On the offensive side of the ledger, we just need more production. We have plenty of options – too many in fact – and need to trim out a hitter or two in order to add more arms to the stable. MJ Melendez is probably the first name to go, but if we need more I could also see parting ways with Wilmer Flores since LaMonte Wade Jr. is nearing a return and he’ll go back to a short-side platoon role. I’m also ready to wave the white flag and admit defeat on Justin Turner, even though we didn’t even use him for either half of this week. Justyn-Henry Malloy has shown a bit of life, but hasn’t been an everyday player and could be optioned out when Spencer Torkelson and Parker Meadows return. Edmundo Sosa also looks like an easy drop with Trea Turner likely to return early next week.
So what’s out there to bid on you ask? On the starting pitching front, it’s Drew Thorpe (at Tigers) and Yariel Rodriguez (TBD?) as guys with single starts this week, but could be long-term holds as additions to our rotation. My initial reaction, is that all three will go for way more than I’m willing to spend, but sneaking Rodriguez by would be fun. DJ Herz (at Rockies) is another single that could fit into this bucket after his 13-strikeout gem on Saturday, but he has to pitch at Coors Field.
In terms of doubles for the upcoming week? Buckle up. Tobias Myers (at Angels, at Padres), Carson Spiers (at Pirates, vs. Red Sox) and Hogan Harris (vs. Royals, vs. Twins) represent the cream of the crop. I’d be thrilled to land any of them, but honestly don’t expect to. After that, it gets really cringy. Jonathan Cannon (vs. Astros, at Tigers), Randy Vazquez (at Phillies, vs. Brewers), Carlos Rodriguez (at Angels, at Padres). Honestly, I’m not sure any of that group is more appealing than Paxton at Coors.
There are also a few interesting names that would be stashes for this week, but could add viable rotation depth. Those are Steven Matz and Michael Wacha. Both are nearing a return and are much better pitchers than the dregs that are usually available on the wire. Thinking along those same lines, we could look a bit further into the future and bring back Eduardo Rodriguez, as it sounds like he could be ready to go around the All-Star break as well. I hate tying up roster spots on stashes, but our depth on the pitching side needs considerable work.
On the hitting side, I know we’re not really looking to add anything and are trying to trim down bats, but there are some interesting names out there. Miguel Andujar had one down week, but continues to play everyday and bat in the middle of the Athletics’ lineup. Colt Keith as MI/CI eligibility and has been swinging a hot bat over the past month. Jorge Polanco is on a rehab assignment and should return early next week. Same can be said for Ty France. Miguel Rojas is interesting as an everyday player in the Dodgers’ lineup with Mookie Betts sidelined. Jon Singleton is back to being the Astros’ everyday first baseman now that Jose Abreu has been sent packing. Mickey Moniak has been playing well for the Angels and would add some speed to the mix. Jorge Soler? Jesus Sanchez? Mickey Moniak? Lot of potential options that could potentially be found in the bargain basement.
At this point, I’ve tinkered with bids enough, I’m just going to cross my fingers and hope for the best.
FAAB Review
Alright, let’s see what we’ve won! We had some interest in Jorge Soler as an addition to our outfield unit, but he pulled in the highest price of the week at $55 ($37) and we were never going to get close to that number. Caron Spiers is another player we had ample interest in with a strong two-step coming up, but once again we were priced out at $43 ($21). I’m sensing a theme here. The pickings that we’re left with are going to be fun.
Michael Kopech wasn’t someone on our radar, but he pulled in a $38 ($0) bid. Ty France would have been a worthwhile addition, but again out of our range at $26 ($16). Tobias Myers was our top choice among the available arms, he pulled in a bid of $24 ($12) that was also well above ours.
Inching further down the list, we see Miguel Andujar plucked from our bid list for $23 ($13). Drew Thorpe saw his price tank after Sunday’s debacle against the Diamondbacks, but he still pulled in a bid of $23 ($2). We were in the mix for the runner-up bid at least.
Yariel Rodriguez is another pitcher that I would have liked to have added to our mix, but he went for $22 ($3). Once again, I believe that’s our runner-up bid there.
Tommy Edman pulled in a bid of $22 ($1) from Phil Dussault. He’s a player that I had on my list of conditionals as a stash, and I believe the $1 runner-up bid there was indeed from us. Down the list we go. Tyler Soderstrom we didn’t have a bid in on, but he still pulled in $20 ($3). Our dreams of re-acquiring Michael Wacha to add to our stable of arms went up in smoke, as he went for $20 ($12). The Randy Vasquez double reeled in $10 ($3) with our runner-up bid coming up short yet again.
We also actually tried to add Jorge Polanco back to the mix, but he went to league leader Griffin Benger for $9 ($5), with our bid once again the runner-up. We were runner-up once more on DJ Herz for $8 ($3). Same on Steven Matz (again to Phil) for $7 ($2). We lost another brutal one to Phil on Hogan Harris – the last of the viable two-steps for the upcoming week – $6 to $5. Ugh. Speaking of brutal losses, we lost out on Colt Keith with a tying bid of $5 to $5 that went to a team lower in the standings. Cool, cool, cool.
I thought that there would be more interest in Miguel Rojas with Mookie Betts suffering a fractured hand on Sunday afternoon. He’s going to be the team’s regular shortstop – at least against right-handed pitching – and should be able to pile up counting stats in that unbelievable lineup. We were hoping that $5 would be enough to get him, it wound up being an overpay as he went unopposed. Wilmer Flores was the drop on that one.
Astonishingly, Phil got us on another double that we were after in Jonathan Cannon, $4 to $3. I thought of all the available doubles, that he was the most likely for us to get. Oof.
Further down our bid list we added Mickey Moniak for $3 unopposed. Blah. Edmundo Sosa was the drop there.
We added Brewers’ rookie right-hander Carlos Rodriguez for a highly questionable two-start week for $2 (unopposed). Melendez was the drop on that one. We also picked up a $2 Lenyn Sosa with Malloy as the drop.
I’m not pleased with the haul – or how the entire FAAB process went this week in general. I guess that’s what happens when you’re backed into a corner by spending too much too early in the season.
Looking through the wreckage of the drops this week, here’s the names that stand out at a glance: Jake Meyers, Chase Silseth, Jonathan India, Anthony Rizzo, Jackson Holliday and Kyle Manzardo.
Looking Ahead
We’re going to start out on the pitching side again this week, to see if it’s an actual trend, or if it makes zero difference which side of the ball I choose to look at first here.
What I would really love, is an announcement from the Rays on Monday or Tuesday that Shane Baz is coming up from Triple-A Durham and will slot into their rotation at some point this week. Sure, it’s wishful thinking, but how much longer can they keep him down there while he’s dominating like he has in his last two starts?
Assuming that Baz isn’t a go, we have 10 arms for nine spots – and one of them (Verlander) is questionable with his neck issue. If there’s any chance that he’s not going to make that start, he needs to be the one to sit. For now though, let’s assume that he does go against the White Sox and see who the sit would be otherwise.
We’re going to continue to roll out all three closers while we have them, as Devin Williams’ return around the All-Star break is likely to cost us the luxury of having Megill.
The bigger issue is that none of our starters is lined up for two starts, except for the garbage double that we picked up. Burnes (at Houston), Crawford (at Cincinnati), Fedde (at Detroit), and Pepiot (at Pirates) are all in. That would leave us with Carlos Rodriguez (at Angels and at Padres) or James Paxton at Colorado. Given the injury to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, there’s a chance that the Dodgers revert back to a five-man rotation, which means that there’s at least a slim chance that Paxton picks up a second start next week (would be vs. Angels). I think we have to at least chance the Coors start in the hope that he does, and worst case we still get the Dodgers’ offensive support against a weak Rockies offense.
The early lean is to sit Verlander and roll out Rodriguez and Paxton. We’ll see if we get any news on JV or on the Baz front before then.
On the hitting side, we have more options, so there are more decisions to be made.
We rolled the dice that William Contreras won’t land on the 7-day concussion injured list after taking a shoulder to the head on the final play on Sunday. Just couldn’t carve out a roster spot for another catcher. If he winds up missing the entire week, we may be able to swap in his older brother for the weekend, as Willson Contreras is beginning a rehab assignment on Tuesday and is nearing a return. Fry obviously gets the other catcher spot.
Tovar, Ramirez, Profar, Duran and O’Neill are easy, if they’re healthy they’re in the lineup. Goldschmidt gets four games and is our best option at first base. Rengifo is an obvious start as long as he plays on Monday – but with his wrist issue there’s a chance he’ll sit a game.
Kepler gets three right-handers and looks like an easy start. FAAB addition Miguel Rojas gets four games at Coors. If we aren’t going to use him there, why even have him.
That leaves one OF spot, CI and UTIL to be filled.
The OF options are: Adell (3 vs. MLW, all RHP), Moniak (3 vs. MLW, all RHP), Arozarena (3 at MIN, all RHP), Fraley (3 at PIT, one LHP) and Kiner-Falefa (3 vs. BOS, all RHP)
The CI options are: Kiner-Falefa (3 vs. BOS, all RHP), Turner (3 vs. BOS, all RHP), Lenyn Sosa (3 vs HOU, 1 LHP)
Then pull from the remaining to fill the UTIL spot.
If Rengifo isn’t in Monday’s lineup, either Sosa or IKF would need to fill that role and would take an option away from the group. I’d like to give Arozarena another shot and Moniak is interesting to me with the all RHP period. Then I’d probably roll Turner if he’s in Monday’s lineup, otherwise it’s Sosa for me.
Or maybe I should just throw names at a dart board. Would have been the better way to go this past weekend.
Where we Stand
It’s so much more fun to write this section of the column when things are going well. The last few weeks it has been unbelievably depressing down here. We entered the week in second place in our league, 22 points behind first and 2.5 ahead of third with 96 total league points. We finished the week still at 96 total league points, but that has dropped us to third place in our league. We’re now a whopping 28 points behind the leader, 2.5 behind second and just 6.5 points ahead of fourth place. The time to stop the bleeding is now.
We had been in 129th place overall, we have now fallen to 135th, so no real change there. We had been in 15th place of the CLQ standings, barely holding onto the final seat at that auction table. We’ll enter Week 13 in 20th place and with serious work to do to climb back into contention.
My confidence with this team is waning. I’m worried at what type of damage another poor week from the offense will do and I’m not confident that the pitching staff can replicate what they did this week – especially with no real double starters coming up.
This is going to be a week where we have to grind out every single stat and make each one count. Hopefully we’re back here next week looking at a small climb back up the standings with momentum shifting a positive direction for us.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.
