We’re three weeks into 2020 and there’s a large enough sample size to begin drawing conclusions. Yes, the looming trade deadline and eventual lunacy of March and April might ruin even the best laid plans, but it’s worth exploring recent trends to look for value high and low.
I’ll start with top-200 values (Jan. 1 through Jan. 20) for 8-cat, 9-cat and points leagues. There are innumerable variations on leagues, of course, but we can use these as baselines – for points leagues it’s the familiar, straightforward scoring format used by FanDuel, Yahoo and NBA.com (Points = 1, Rebounds = 1.2, Assists = 1.5, Steals = 3, Blocks =3, Turnovers = -1). You can view/download the list here via Google Sheets.
For players to qualify for the list, they had to meet a few cutoffs. The first was a minimum of 15 minutes per game, which jettisoned 138 players. You won’t miss them, but the list includes plenty of big men like Jakob Poeltl, Robin Lopez, Damian Jones, Naz Reid, Harry Giles and Boban Marjanovic and Isaiah Hartenstein. Otherwise, it’s mostly scrubs.
I was going to make five games played the cutoff, but that would have eliminated Karl-Anthony Towns, Thomas Bryant and a few other worthy players. Instead, I shifted it to a mere three games in January. That means, of course, that we bid farewell to Paul George, Mike Conley and Joel Embiid (among others). I then trimmed the list to the top-200 guys based on 8-cat value, which tends to split the difference between most fantasy formats. Going 200 deep also ensures most relevant guys will be included. There’s a category for 9-cat with FT% punted...more on that later.
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| Name | Rank (8-cat) | 8-cat | 9-cat | 9-cat (PUNT FT%) | NBA Official Points |
| Kawhi Leonard | 1 | 10.28 | 8.71 | 7.20 | 52.49 |
| Anthony Davis | 2 | 10.24 | 9.69 | 7.38 | 48.60 |
| Devin Booker | 3 | 8.34 | 5.86 | 2.21 | 46.82 |
| Trae Young | 4 | 8.31 | 4.64 | 3.39 | 52.18 |
| James Harden | 5 | 7.30 | 4.02 | 1.72 | 53.25 |
| Damian Lillard | 6 | 7.05 | 6.12 | 4.20 | 47.47 |
| Zach LaVine | 7 | 7.00 | 5.89 | 5.27 | 47.29 |
| LeBron James | 8 | 6.37 | 4.01 | 4.56 | 52.84 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 9 | 6.37 | 5.28 | 2.58 | 45.35 |
| Jrue Holiday | 10 | 5.83 | 3.70 | 1.82 | 37.27 |
| Brandon Ingram | 11 | 5.65 | 3.65 | 2.09 | 44.49 |
| Kyrie Irving | 12 | 5.58 | 5.51 | 5.25 | 42.80 |
| Ben Simmons | 13 | 5.55 | 5.09 | 7.80 | 52.82 |
| Norman Powell | 14 | 5.39 | 5.91 | 4.63 | 34.46 |
| Hassan Whiteside | 15 | 5.34 | 5.22 | 6.18 | 46.86 |
| Nikola Jokic | 16 | 4.92 | 3.62 | 3.86 | 45.52 |
| De’Aaron Fox | 17 | 4.54 | 2.30 | 3.16 | 45.72 |
| Luka Doncic | 18 | 4.51 | 1.43 | 2.94 | 52.42 |
| Russell Westbrook | 19 | 4.50 | 2.02 | 4.47 | 53.53 |
| Rudy Gobert | 20 | 4.30 | 4.82 | 6.28 | 45.89 |
| Clint Capela | 21 | 4.24 | 4.52 | 3.86 | 40.21 |
| Andre Drummond | 22 | 4.14 | 1.98 | 4.67 | 46.02 |
| Lou Williams | 23 | 4.13 | 2.59 | 0.24 | 35.54 |
| Ja Morant | 24 | 3.96 | 1.48 | 0.62 | 37.70 |
| Deandre Ayton | 25 | 3.77 | 3.65 | 3.00 | 41.93 |
| Chris Paul | 26 | 3.68 | 3.15 | 2.53 | 36.79 |
| Fred VanVleet | 27 | 3.56 | 4.29 | 5.30 | 39.68 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 28 | 3.53 | 3.68 | 2.72 | 39.25 |
| D’Angelo Russell | 29 | 3.50 | 1.45 | 0.77 | 41.32 |
| Robert Covington | 30 | 3.39 | 4.03 | 4.49 | 33.72 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | 31 | 3.33 | 3.23 | 3.51 | 38.80 |
| Jimmy Butler | 32 | 3.29 | 2.82 | 2.00 | 40.53 |
| Khris Middleton | 33 | 3.28 | 3.38 | 2.42 | 35.78 |
| Jayson Tatum | 34 | 3.25 | 3.13 | 2.58 | 38.94 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 35 | 3.23 | 1.18 | 5.16 | 53.23 |
| Lonzo Ball | 36 | 3.17 | 1.65 | 2.44 | 40.30 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 37 | 3.15 | 3.10 | 2.79 | 42.28 |
| Danilo Gallinari | 38 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 1.45 | 34.16 |
| Marcus Smart | 39 | 2.89 | 3.04 | 2.50 | 32.10 |
| Derrick Favors | 40 | 2.88 | 3.77 | 4.05 | 35.16 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 41 | 2.81 | 3.31 | 3.53 | 33.17 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 42 | 2.77 | 2.19 | 0.74 | 34.60 |
| Terry Rozier | 43 | 2.71 | 2.97 | 2.08 | 34.64 |
| Bam Adebayo | 44 | 2.63 | 1.76 | 2.69 | 39.52 |
| Kyle Lowry | 45 | 2.59 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 38.00 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 46 | 2.52 | 1.11 | 2.12 | 41.12 |
| Devonte’ Graham | 47 | 2.15 | 0.74 | -0.49 | 32.59 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 48 | 2.08 | 1.38 | -0.34 | 36.60 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 49 | 2.07 | 2.21 | 2.06 | 30.96 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 50 | 2.00 | 2.52 | 1.77 | 32.84 |
| John Collins | 51 | 1.94 | 1.72 | 1.97 | 35.18 |
| Buddy Hield | 52 | 1.93 | 0.52 | 0.12 | 32.58 |
| Kemba Walker | 53 | 1.92 | 1.58 | 1.28 | 33.03 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 54 | 1.86 | 0.80 | -0.31 | 32.20 |
| Jamal Murray | 55 | 1.77 | 2.04 | 0.35 | 33.69 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 56 | 1.73 | 2.46 | 3.47 | 36.80 |
| Julius Randle | 57 | 1.62 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 38.87 |
| Ricky Rubio | 58 | 1.59 | 0.07 | 0.37 | 34.31 |
| Kevin Love | 59 | 1.57 | 0.64 | -0.11 | 34.18 |
| Derrick Rose | 60 | 1.50 | 0.09 | -1.07 | 34.77 |
| Will Barton | 61 | 1.37 | 1.86 | 1.54 | 33.79 |
| Dillon Brooks | 62 | 1.31 | 2.04 | 1.53 | 31.69 |
| Marc Gasol | 63 | 1.25 | 1.18 | 2.01 | 28.38 |
| Patrick Beverley | 64 | 1.17 | 1.37 | 1.58 | 31.23 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | 65 | 1.04 | -0.16 | -2.34 | 26.87 |
| Joe Ingles | 66 | 0.93 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 29.44 |
| Maxi Kleber | 67 | 0.77 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 25.12 |
| Tobias Harris | 68 | 0.64 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 33.23 |
| Kevin Huerter | 69 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 29.62 |
| Jae Crowder | 70 | 0.63 | 1.50 | 1.05 | 28.00 |
| Evan Fournier | 71 | 0.58 | 0.35 | -0.40 | 28.50 |
| Collin Sexton | 72 | 0.58 | -0.15 | -1.11 | 31.32 |
| Nerlens Noel | 73 | 0.54 | 2.34 | 1.76 | 25.35 |
| Tristan Thompson | 74 | 0.54 | -0.12 | -0.41 | 31.81 |
| Alec Burks | 75 | 0.46 | 0.23 | -2.49 | 30.41 |
| Bradley Beal | 76 | 0.45 | -0.96 | -2.66 | 31.88 |
| Brook Lopez | 77 | 0.40 | 1.56 | 1.87 | 27.42 |
| Pascal Siakam | 78 | 0.39 | 0.06 | -0.52 | 30.14 |
| Markelle Fultz | 79 | 0.38 | -0.15 | -0.09 | 32.06 |
| T.J. Warren | 80 | 0.32 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 30.29 |
| Myles Turner | 81 | 0.28 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 29.80 |
| Al Horford | 82 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 31.44 |
| JaVale McGee | 83 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 1.66 | 26.35 |
| Kendrick Nunn | 84 | -0.01 | 0.19 | -0.45 | 27.54 |
| Gordon Hayward | 85 | -0.06 | 0.19 | -0.38 | 29.81 |
| Richaun Holmes | 86 | -0.20 | -0.18 | 0.58 | 28.70 |
| Marcus Morris | 87 | -0.26 | 0.65 | 2.25 | 33.90 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 88 | -0.33 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 25.10 |
| Gorgui Dieng | 89 | -0.40 | -0.15 | -0.32 | 25.67 |
| P.J. Washington | 90 | -0.48 | -1.29 | -1.30 | 26.83 |
| Eric Bledsoe | 91 | -0.54 | -0.67 | -1.49 | 26.51 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 92 | -0.56 | -1.11 | -1.93 | 32.36 |
| J.J. Redick | 93 | -0.62 | 0.27 | -1.12 | 23.57 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 94 | -0.62 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 27.80 |
| Jaylen Brown | 95 | -0.66 | -1.95 | -1.60 | 30.63 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 96 | -0.70 | -0.45 | -0.81 | 28.43 |
| Troy Brown | 97 | -0.71 | -0.41 | -0.34 | 27.81 |
| Terrence Ross | 98 | -0.72 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 25.19 |
| Daniel Theis | 99 | -0.74 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 25.49 |
| Josh Richardson | 100 | -0.81 | -1.50 | -2.67 | 27.18 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 101 | -0.81 | -0.19 | -0.19 | 23.99 |
| Derrick White | 102 | -0.92 | 0.03 | -0.79 | 24.08 |
| Marvin Bagley | 103 | -0.96 | -0.49 | -0.69 | 30.75 |
| Serge Ibaka | 104 | -0.99 | -1.45 | -0.80 | 30.67 |
| Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | 105 | -1.00 | -0.70 | -0.98 | 21.58 |
| De’Anthony Melton | 106 | -1.05 | -0.67 | -1.27 | 23.79 |
| Draymond Green | 107 | -1.07 | -1.25 | -1.51 | 24.99 |
| Darius Garland | 108 | -1.10 | -2.60 | -3.19 | 26.06 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 109 | -1.12 | -0.68 | -1.08 | 25.25 |
| Josh Hart | 110 | -1.17 | -0.76 | -0.38 | 24.10 |
| OG Anunoby | 111 | -1.21 | -0.59 | -0.88 | 22.92 |
| Jarrett Culver | 112 | -1.21 | -1.55 | -0.79 | 27.27 |
| Dejounte Murray | 113 | -1.24 | -1.10 | -1.08 | 24.49 |
| Trevor Ariza | 114 | -1.24 | -0.36 | -0.25 | 22.27 |
| Justin Holiday | 115 | -1.26 | 0.01 | 0.24 | 20.71 |
| Dennis Schroder | 116 | -1.26 | -1.79 | -1.78 | 27.48 |
| Dwight Powell | 117 | -1.28 | -0.66 | -0.02 | 26.28 |
| Kris Dunn | 118 | -1.29 | -1.53 | -1.37 | 22.82 |
| Omari Spellman | 119 | -1.30 | -0.56 | -0.65 | 22.21 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 120 | -1.31 | -0.38 | 0.29 | 22.51 |
| Taurean Prince | 121 | -1.35 | -1.79 | -1.69 | 24.29 |
| Steven Adams | 122 | -1.36 | -0.95 | -0.12 | 29.12 |
| Dwight Howard | 123 | -1.40 | -1.10 | 0.66 | 28.00 |
| Shabazz Napier | 124 | -1.42 | -1.95 | -2.36 | 23.98 |
| Mikal Bridges | 125 | -1.43 | -0.80 | -0.73 | 20.22 |
| Damion Lee | 126 | -1.43 | -1.77 | -2.42 | 25.76 |
| Bruce Brown | 127 | -1.44 | -0.82 | -1.00 | 25.51 |
| Danny Green | 128 | -1.53 | -0.08 | 0.71 | 23.44 |
| Aaron Gordon | 129 | -1.57 | -1.91 | -1.04 | 28.56 |
| Thaddeus Young | 130 | -1.57 | -0.84 | -0.43 | 22.78 |
| C.J. McCollum | 131 | -1.60 | -0.73 | -0.04 | 29.91 |
| Glenn Robinson III | 132 | -1.65 | -1.72 | -1.92 | 24.36 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 133 | -1.66 | -0.81 | -0.64 | 23.16 |
| Enes Kanter | 134 | -1.69 | -1.64 | -1.59 | 25.09 |
| Cam Reddish | 135 | -1.69 | -1.43 | -1.72 | 21.50 |
| Jeremy Lamb | 136 | -1.70 | -0.85 | -1.50 | 23.00 |
| Miles Bridges | 137 | -1.71 | -1.93 | -2.39 | 24.29 |
| Ish Smith | 138 | -1.74 | -1.75 | -0.84 | 29.33 |
| Josh Okogie | 139 | -1.74 | -1.50 | -1.22 | 21.65 |
| Jarrett Allen | 140 | -1.79 | -0.95 | -0.07 | 26.08 |
| Christian Wood | 141 | -1.87 | -1.46 | -1.95 | 22.59 |
| Davis Bertans | 142 | -2.10 | -1.79 | -2.11 | 21.84 |
| Eric Paschall | 143 | -2.11 | -1.92 | -1.92 | 24.35 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 144 | -2.17 | -2.24 | -2.21 | 21.94 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 145 | -2.23 | -2.14 | -1.00 | 23.52 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 146 | -2.33 | -2.91 | -2.92 | 27.76 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 147 | -2.34 | -1.28 | -1.80 | 21.60 |
| Brandon Clarke | 148 | -2.39 | -1.30 | -1.99 | 22.13 |
| Cedi Osman | 149 | -2.41 | -2.26 | -2.26 | 20.51 |
| Harrison Barnes | 150 | -2.45 | -1.36 | -1.65 | 23.64 |
| Elfrid Payton | 151 | -2.57 | -2.69 | -1.52 | 27.71 |
| D.J. Augustin | 152 | -2.60 | -2.76 | -3.24 | 24.08 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 153 | -2.63 | -1.90 | -1.57 | 19.84 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 154 | -2.66 | -4.07 | -2.74 | 31.24 |
| Tomas Satoransky | 155 | -2.71 | -2.66 | -3.43 | 22.89 |
| Jordan McRae | 156 | -2.71 | -3.05 | -2.81 | 27.89 |
| Goran Dragic | 157 | -2.77 | -4.07 | -3.56 | 23.22 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 158 | -2.80 | -2.17 | -1.97 | 21.76 |
| Seth Curry | 159 | -2.81 | -1.96 | -1.93 | 19.91 |
| Ben McLemore | 160 | -2.84 | -2.11 | -2.11 | 16.38 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | 161 | -2.85 | -2.00 | -1.44 | 23.03 |
| RJ Barrett | 162 | -2.90 | -3.60 | -3.13 | 25.13 |
| Terence Davis | 163 | -2.96 | -3.06 | -3.40 | 18.67 |
| Reggie Bullock | 164 | -2.96 | -1.69 | -1.77 | 19.24 |
| Royce O’Neale | 165 | -3.06 | -1.90 | -2.21 | 18.82 |
| Sekou Doumbouya | 166 | -3.09 | -2.35 | -1.80 | 21.88 |
| Jeff Teague | 167 | -3.10 | -3.84 | -4.45 | 18.89 |
| James Johnson | 168 | -3.15 | -1.95 | -1.37 | 18.76 |
| Alex Len | 169 | -3.23 | -2.31 | -1.22 | 25.45 |
| Nicolo Melli | 170 | -3.25 | -2.67 | -3.18 | 15.51 |
| Ivica Zubac | 171 | -3.28 | -1.88 | -1.72 | 19.90 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 172 | -3.29 | -2.13 | -2.79 | 18.36 |
| Daniel Gafford | 173 | -3.32 | -2.58 | -2.08 | 17.65 |
| Larry Nance | 174 | -3.39 | -2.44 | -0.76 | 20.34 |
| Wilson Chandler | 175 | -3.45 | -2.86 | -3.12 | 16.63 |
| Gary Harris | 176 | -3.46 | -2.73 | -2.99 | 20.12 |
| Isaac Bonga | 177 | -3.48 | -2.42 | -2.14 | 17.44 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 178 | -3.48 | -2.27 | -1.54 | 21.40 |
| Malik Beasley | 179 | -3.49 | -2.45 | -3.03 | 16.51 |
| Meyers Leonard | 180 | -3.52 | -2.14 | -2.22 | 18.33 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 181 | -3.53 | -3.22 | -3.13 | 24.61 |
| Rudy Gay | 182 | -3.57 | -2.68 | -2.69 | 21.19 |
| Mo Bamba | 183 | -3.65 | -2.33 | -2.03 | 18.26 |
| Jerami Grant | 184 | -3.73 | -2.67 | -2.20 | 21.51 |
| Markieff Morris | 185 | -3.73 | -2.78 | -3.15 | 18.80 |
| Kent Bazemore | 186 | -3.76 | -3.26 | -3.12 | 19.87 |
| Duncan Robinson | 187 | -3.76 | -2.92 | -3.00 | 17.92 |
| Patty Mills | 188 | -3.78 | -2.83 | -3.47 | 16.50 |
| Frank Ntilikina | 189 | -3.78 | -3.88 | -4.48 | 17.81 |
| Joe Harris | 190 | -3.80 | -4.14 | -3.64 | 21.00 |
| Tyler Herro | 191 | -3.81 | -3.07 | -3.04 | 18.71 |
| JaMychal Green | 192 | -3.81 | -3.34 | -3.73 | 17.39 |
| Luke Kornet | 193 | -3.84 | -2.70 | -2.29 | 17.24 |
| Montrezl Harrell | 194 | -3.86 | -3.93 | 0.32 | 33.74 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 195 | -3.89 | -4.23 | -3.81 | 20.87 |
| John Henson | 196 | -4.00 | -2.91 | -2.92 | 18.90 |
| Tony Snell | 197 | -4.02 | -2.53 | -2.74 | 15.15 |
| De’Andre Hunter | 198 | -4.10 | -3.69 | -3.70 | 18.03 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 199 | -4.31 | -3.26 | -1.08 | 22.46 |
| Jahlil Okafor | 200 | -4.35 | -3.88 | -2.81 | 21.35 |
As I mentioned prior to this list, I opted to give ‘Punt FT%' its own column. That’s somewhat self-serving, because I recently traded Brandon Ingram for Ben Simmons in the Rotoworld staff league. Yes, Simmons is playing better lately due to the absence of Joel Embiid (left hand surgery). He’s been the No. 1 player in 9-cat when you punt FT%, though, and he’s inside the top-10 on the season, whereas Ingram isn’t even second-round without FT%. I have a pure punt-FT% team that includes Andre Drummond, Russell Westbrook, Julius Randle and others, so this move just made sense for me.
It’s an interesting trade, though, because while it helps my team specifically due to the punt-FT% build, it makes the GM I traded with objectively better in a 9-cat league – and he’s already sitting at No. 1. Everyone else in the league might be upset, but I had to make the move that I thought helped my team – and without Jonathan Isaac my team has been struggling, so I wanted to shake things up anyway. Plus, I’m slightly nervous about Ingram since he’s had a few flare-ups of knee soreness, Zion Williamson‘s return might hurt him, and the Pelicans will have minimal incentive to play him in the final month if they fall out of the playoff picture (currently 3.5 games back). Time will tell.
I mentioned the modest restrictions to qualify for this list (10+ minutes, at least three games played since Jan. 1), but after culling to the top-200 we lost some more notable names. Remember that this is 8-cat value, per game, for the past three weeks. Guys who didn’t make the cut include George Hill, Delon Wright, Avery Bradley, Danuel House, Coby White, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, Caris LeVert and Aron Baynes.
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Most of those guys have been abandoned by fantasy owners already, and the guards on that list aren’t faring well due to inefficiency and/or low playing time. Hill is averaging only 19.5 minutes per game, for instance, a number that wasn’t much higher even while Eric Bledsoe was injured earlier this season. Coby White is 40.7% from the field and 61.9% from the line this month, and I’ve abandoned my fleeting optimism about his late-season appeal. Maybe in points leagues, if he’s turned loose at some point, but that’s about it.
The most glaring inclusion on that list of sub-200 players is Caris LeVert. I’ve been relatively down on him this season, and we’re witnessing Exhibit A for my reasoning – in eight January games, he’s scoring 12.8 points on awful percentages (36.5% FGs, 60.0% FTs) without many supporting stats at 1.4 threes, 3.1 boards, 2.9 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.1 blocks. There’s no way to sugarcoat those numbers, and you probably can’t even trade him right now. Given his perceived upside, I’d still try to hold him in the hopes that he gets hot and develops some trade value.
It’s not all doom and gloom. There are plenty of big men I’m either stashing or watching very closely, despite low positions on this list, including Jaxson Hayes, Daniel Gafford, Nicolo Melli, Willie Cauley-Stein, Christian Wood and Brandon Clarke. I think Clarke and Wood need to be owned already in category-based leagues, and Hayes is borderline – it seems inevitable that the Pelicans will trade Derrick Favors, or shut him down, after which Hayes should have great upside. We didn’t quite get there with Favors injured recently, but it’s a long season. I’ve shown before that young players benefit as the season proceeds, while older guys tend to fall off. That’s a theme I might return to within the next few weeks, as I’m considering some metric that combines a player’s age and their team’s record. For now, suffice to say that young guys on bad teams should benefit disproportionately after the All-Star break (and particularly from mid-March through April).
Here’s one final cut of data I found interesting. Using Yahoo position eligibility as a baseline, I tallied up how many eligible players there were for each position.
PG: 61
SG: 84
SF: 74
PF: 75
C: 57
This includes multiple-position eligibility, which is why there’s more than 150 listed – it works out to an average of 1.76 per player. It’s also yet another reason to remember to stock up on point guards and centers early in drafts, since there literally just isn’t the same supply compared to other positions. That’s all the time we have for this week’s column, but perusing the lists above should yield plenty more insights regardless of your fantasy format(s). It might be easier to navigate the spreadsheet on Sheets or Excel. As ever, you can find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW if you have any questions or insights!
