Average Draft Positions

Today’s column explores average draft positions (ADPs), providing insight into broad trends and perspectives on player values. If the hive-mind of fantasy GMs at Yahoo have given Jae Crowder an ADP of No. 72 (they have), you’re less likely to need to reach for him in the 40-50 range. Be mindful, however, that ADP data is only good as a general roadmap to values. For one thing, the ADPs are an amalgam of many different types and depths of leagues. There are also wide disparities in the intensity of leagues -- some require painstaking research and strategies to snipe valuable players from knowledgeable opponents, while some are casual affairs where a little bit of planning goes a long way. Nevertheless, ADP is a useful tool for getting the temperature of the room, as it were. Before looking at the top-150 players, in terms of ADP, let’s look at how they break down by position. Every time I run this type of analysis, I find that PFs and SGs are relatively abundant, while PGs and Cs are relative scarce. Let’s see if the picture changes when viewed through the lens of ADP.

Yahoo
PG	44
SG	47
SF	49
PF	56
C	50

Yahoo is very lenient with position eligibility and the breakdown here is balanced enough to seem intentional (as a footnote, the average position-per-player is 1.64, almost identical to what it was last year). There are enough players at each spot that you shouldn’t be doomed if you miss out on, say, a SF in the first three rounds.

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At the other end of the spectrum, ESPN is quite strict with player positions. This breakdown refers to single-eligibility for players:

ESPN
PG	36
SG	29
SF	26
PF	30
C	29

Without multiple eligibility, there is actually a surplus of point guards in the top-150 here. My guess is that fantasy owners tend to stock up on point guards relative to other positions, which drives more PGs into the top-150, but either way it’s worth considering when drafting in an ESPN league. The list below compares ADP data from Yahoo and ESPN, with a column comparing the (absolute) difference between the two. For instance, Blake Griffin is going in the late second round in ESPN leagues, but falls to the middle third round in Yahoo with an ADP difference of 8.2. LaMarcus Aldridge is almost the exact opposite, going 8.0 spots higher in Yahoo. A total of 20 players made one list but not the other, suggesting a lack of consensus about their fantasy worthiness. They are (in no particular order): Alex Len, Brandon Jennings, Evan Turner, Wilson Chandler, Tim Frazier, Taj Gibson, Joe Johnson, Marcus Smart, Matt Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Pat Beverley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Ian Mahinmi, Mirza Teletovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Denzel Valentine, Zaza Pachulia and Chris Bosh.

For that group of players, I defaulted to ‘150' for their ADP on the site that did not include them.

Player	YAHOO ADP	% Drafted (Yahoo)	ESPN ADP	% Drafted (ESPN)	ADP Difference
Stephen Curry GS	1.8	100%	3.6	100%	1.8
Kevin Durant GS	2.6	100%	4.7	100%	2.1
Russell Westbrook OKC	3.1	100%	1.4	100%	1.7
James Harden Hou	3.3	100%	2.7	100%	0.6
Karl-Anthony Towns Min	6.3	100%	4.8	100%	1.5
Kawhi Leonard SA	7	100%	9.1	100%	2.1
Anthony Davis NO	7.7	100%	10.4	100%	2.7
LeBron James Cle	8	100%	5.9	100%	2.1
Chris Paul LAC	9.6	100%	8	100%	1.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo Mil	10.5	100%	12.9	100%	2.4
Paul George Ind	10.7	100%	14.2	100%	3.5
Damian Lillard Por	11.7	100%	11	100%	0.7
Hassan Whiteside Mia	13.8	100%	14.4	100%	0.6
DeMarcus Cousins Sac	13.9	100%	10	100%	3.9
Jimmy Butler Chi	15.4	100%	19.6	100%	4.2
Paul Millsap Atl	17.5	100%	21.2	100%	3.7
Draymond Green GS	19.2	100%	19.6	100%	0.4
Al Horford Bos	19.8	100%	27.4	100%	7.6
John Wall Was	20.3	100%	15.5	100%	4.8
Kyrie Irving Cle	20.5	100%	17.1	100%	3.4
Kyle Lowry Tor	20.7	100%	18.4	100%	2.3
LaMarcus Aldridge SA	22	100%	30	100%	8
Klay Thompson GS	23.2	100%	24	100%	0.8
Kristaps Porzingis NY	25.6	100%	31.9	99%	6.3
Victor Oladipo OKC	26.2	100%	31	100%	4.8
Kemba Walker Cha	27.1	100%	25.2	100%	1.9
Carmelo Anthony NY	28.7	100%	28	100%	0.7
Blake Griffin LAC	28.8	100%	20.6	100%	8.2
Serge Ibaka Orl	29.3	100%	40.9	97%	11.6
Derrick Favors Uta	32.4	100%	45.8	97%	13.4
Brook Lopez Bkn	32.7	100%	35	99%	2.3
Kevin Love Cle	33.5	100%	36.9	99%	3.4
C.J. McCollum Por	33.9	100%	29	99%	4.9
Isaiah Thomas Bos	34.6	100%	25.7	100%	8.9
Eric Bledsoe Pho	35	100%	28.7	98%	6.3
Nikola Jokic Den	36.8	100%	51.1	88%	14.3
Jonas Valanciunas Tor	38.8	100%	82.2	87%	43.4
Andre Drummond Det	41.6	100%	27.3	100%	14.3
DeMar DeRozan Tor	41.6	100%	37.5	100%	4.1
Andrew Wiggins Min	41.9	100%	41.7	98%	0.2
DeAndre Jordan LAC	42.7	100%	32.4	100%	10.3
Mike Conley Mem	43	100%	60.9	91%	17.9
Tobias Harris Det	45.4	100%	77	87%	31.6
Rudy Gobert Uta	47.9	100%	45.7	96%	2.2
Ricky Rubio Min	49.7	100%	80.1	85%	30.4
Gordon Hayward Uta	49.8	100%	39.7	97%	10.1
Pau Gasol SA	50.9	100%	36.5	99%	14.4
Trevor Ariza Hou	51.3	100%	55.6	92%	4.3
Nikola Vucevic Orl	52.8	100%	48.8	96%	4
Gorgui Dieng Min	53.4	100%	65.8	85%	12.4
Dirk Nowitzki Dal	55	100%	60.5	94%	5.5
Jeff Teague Ind	55.4	100%	53.7	94%	1.7
Nicolas Batum Cha	56.7	100%	41.9	98%	14.8
Marc Gasol Mem	57.1	100%	42.1	99%	15
Goran Dragic Mia	57.5	100%	52.9	93%	4.6
Myles Turner Ind	59	100%	75.8	80%	16.8
Nerlens Noel Phi	62.4	100%	60.6	90%	1.8
Otto Porter Was	62.5	100%	105.4	68%	42.9
Rudy Gay Sac	63.3	100%	63.1	93%	0.2
Jabari Parker Mil	63.9	100%	70.4	90%	6.5
Marcin Gortat Was	64	100%	66.7	89%	2.7
Khris Middleton Mil	65.2	45%	150	0%	84.8
Zach LaVine Min	65.9	100%	70.3	90%	4.4
Reggie Jackson Det	66.8	100%	59.9	88%	6.9
Rajon Rondo Chi	67.4	100%	44.8	97%	22.6
Darren Collison Sac	68.3	100%	95.2	75%	26.9
Steven Adams OKC	68.4	100%	111.1	54%	42.7
Aaron Gordon Orl	71.3	100%	95.1	76%	23.8
Danilo Gallinari Den	71.7	100%	77.1	86%	5.4
Jae Crowder Bos	72	96%	66.5	90%	5.5
Ryan Anderson Hou	72.1	100%	80.5	80%	8.4
Dennis Schroder Atl	72.8	100%	61.1	83%	11.7
Dwight Howard Atl	74	100%	52.7	96%	21.3
Greg Monroe Mil	74.7	100%	64.3	92%	10.4
Dwyane Wade Chi	76.4	100%	50	97%	26.4
Brandon Knight Pho	78	100%	69.2	88%	8.8
Bradley Beal Was	78.1	100%	75.5	90%	2.6
Thaddeus Young Ind	78.7	100%	72.7	88%	6
Nikola Mirotic Chi	79.6	100%	117.8	41%	38.2
Chandler Parsons Mem	79.9	100%	69.1	88%	10.8
Enes Kanter OKC	80.1	100%	71.9	90%	8.2
Evan Fournier Orl	80.7	95%	52.2	91%	28.5
D’Angelo Russell LAL	81.3	100%	57.3	89%	24
George Hill Uta	81.9	100%	97.1	74%	15.2
Avery Bradley Bos	82.9	100%	89.7	81%	6.8
Monta Ellis Ind	85.7	100%	75.9	89%	9.8
Devin Booker Pho	88.2	100%	56.1	93%	32.1
Kenneth Faried Den	88.2	100%	93.4	82%	5.2
Robin Lopez Chi	89.9	100%	106.9	67%	17
J.J. Redick LAC	91.5	100%	88.3	84%	3.2
Jordan Clarkson LAL	91.8	100%	88.5	83%	3.3
DeMarre Carroll Tor	93.4	100%	102.5	69%	9.1
Wesley Matthews Dal	93.7	100%	111.9	62%	18.2
Jahlil Okafor Phi	95.1	100%	84.6	85%	10.5
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Bkn	95.2	75%	150	0%	54.8
Jrue Holiday NO	95.4	100%	118.4	51%	23
Jeremy Lin Bkn	97.2	100%	84.8	70%	12.4
Harrison Barnes Dal	98	100%	79	85%	19
Danny Green SA	98.7	100%	118	39%	19.3
Ben Simmons Phi	99.7	96%	82.3	73%	17.4
Kent Bazemore Atl	101.8	100%	76.2	71%	25.6
Chris Bosh Mia	102.1	93%	150	0%	47.9
Rodney Hood Uta	104	100%	111.9	65%	7.9
Zach Randolph Mem	104.5	100%	107.6	73%	3.1
Robert Covington Phi	104.6	100%	106.6	38%	2
Marvin Williams Cha	106.6	85%	112.5	58%	5.9
Jusuf Nurkic Den	107.7	77%	108.5	26%	0.8
Bismack Biyombo Orl	107.9	100%	112.8	22%	4.9
Derrick Rose NY	108	100%	86.1	87%	21.9
Clint Capela Hou	109.5	100%	150	0%	40.5
Julius Randle LAL	109.6	100%	83.1	86%	26.5
Gary Harris Den	110.1	99%	115.2	45%	5.1
Deron Williams Dal	114.3	100%	115.8	49%	1.5
J.R. Smith Cle	114.8	100%	107.4	54%	7.4
Tristan Thompson Cle	115.4	91%	81.7	77%	33.7
Luol Deng LAL	116.1	99%	112.5	58%	3.6
Elfrid Payton Orl	116.9	100%	103	72%	13.9
Patrick Beverley Hou	117.3	99%	150	0%	32.7
Tyreke Evans NO	117.9	97%	109.2	52%	8.7
Marcus Smart Bos	118.4	100%	150	0%	31.6
Markieff Morris Was	119.2	100%	107.7	48%	11.5
Eric Gordon Hou	119.8	100%	118.6	41%	1.2
Brandon Ingram LAL	120.8	98%	94.5	75%	26.3
Kyle Korver Atl	121.1	100%	113.6	29%	7.5
Al-Farouq Aminu Por	121.7	100%	110.7	59%	11
Joakim Noah NY	121.8	99%	112.4	54%	9.4
Joel Embiid Phi	121.9	78%	103.7	52%	18.2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Det	122.8	100%	104.4	70%	18.4
Andrew Bogut Dal	123	98%	113.6	48%	9.4
Mason Plumlee Por	123.5	98%	104.1	62%	19.4
Michael Carter-Williams Chi	124.3	92%	106.6	65%	17.7
Al Jefferson Ind	125.8	88%	112.8	61%	13
Tony Parker SA	126.2	65%	108.6	30%	17.6
Emmanuel Mudiay Den	126.5	98%	115.4	62%	11.1
Justise Winslow Mia	128.5	80%	113.2	24%	15.3
Buddy Hield NO	128.8	97%	99.6	72%	29.2
Jared Sullinger Tor	129.1	92%	140	18%	10.9
Ian Mahinmi Was	131.4	31%	150	0%	18.6
Jamal Crawford LAC	131.5	55%	109.7	50%	21.8
Tim Frazier NO	132.3	70%	150	0%	17.7
Marcus Morris Det	132.4	68%	118	31%	14.4
Will Barton Den	132.6	58%	116.7	33%	15.9
Wilson Chandler Den	134.2	36%	150	0%	15.8
Andre Iguodala GS	135	44%	108.3	46%	26.7
Taj Gibson Chi	135.6	54%	150	0%	14.4
Ish Smith Det	136.4	24%	119.7	30%	16.7
Timofey Mozgov LAL	136.5	31%	108.3	20%	28.2
Denzel Valentine Chi	136.6	6%	150	0%	13.4
Dario Saric Phi	137.3	49%	117.4	28%	19.9
Kris Dunn Min	137.5	57%	90.7	62%	46.8
Alex Len	150	0%	100.8	70%	49.2
Brandon Jennings	150	0%	112.2	35%	37.8
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	150	0%	113.2	30%	36.8
Zaza Pachulia	150	0%	113.9	28%	36.1
Clint Capela	150	0%	116.2	31%	33.8
Matt Barnes	150	0%	116.8	16%	33.2
Lou Williams	150	0%	118.6	27%	31.4
Joe Johnson	150	0%	118.7	25%	31.3
Willie Cauley-Stein	150	0%	122.8	34%	27.2
Mirza Teletovic	150	0%	123.3	37%	26.7
Evan Turner	150	0%	106.2	64%	43.8

Note that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Marcus Smart both missed the cut for ESPN with ADPs of 140 (for whatever reason, ESPN lists everyone outside of the top-150 as having an ADP of 140). That should not happen in a competitive draft, even after Smart’s unfortunate ankle sprain in Boston’s preseason finale (early estimates give him a two-week timetable). Khris Middleton came in outside the top-150, likely because owners with IR spots were stashing him in the final rounds -- it’s a worthwhile strategy, but it means that if some of your key players gets hurt during the year, you may face a tough decision with no available IR spots (or at least one fewer). Some players who did not make the top-150 in Yahoo include Trey Lyles, Seth Curry, Dario Saric, Alex Len, Timofey Mozgov, Ish Smith, Cody Zeller and Wilson Chandler. A few less-deserving players would have the cut, like Channing Frye and Paul Pierce, but I eliminated anyone who was drafted in under 15% of leagues. That demonstrates why it’s important to also consider ownership rates -- Frye was drafted in 2% of leagues and Pierce in 3% of leagues, so it was a tiny demographic driving up their perceived values. Khris Middleton has an ADP of 65.2 in the Yahoo data, which must be a product of early drafts anchoring his value. As we’ll see below he’s much lower in ESPN data...presumably the latter site uses ADP data from a recent time-span (like the past 14 days), whereas Yahoo is using longer-team data. I’m not positive about that, since the methodology isn’t explained on either site, but it’s an interesting wrinkle to consider. Some questions raised here beg further exploration. Why is Jonas Valanciunas coveted in Yahoo leagues, but banished to the late-middle rounds in ESPN? Why is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson going 55 spots earlier in Yahoo, while Alex Len is going 50 spots earlier in ESPN? The main reason is how they are pre-ranked in each league. RHJ is somewhere around the top-120 in ESPN’s projections, with an assigned auction value of $1, whereas Yahoo has them ranked either 79 (“Expert pre-season ranks”) or 62 (“Rank based on [9-cat] settings”).

That highlights the importance of doing some research before you get in the draft room...if you have 60 seconds to make a pick and you’re furiously scrolling through 100+ names to find the guy you think you want, odds are you’re going to make some mistakes. To avoid this, check out Mike Gallagher’s two-part series, Abusing the Ranks, as well as Jonas Nader’s excellent Top Value Picks column. Regardless of the site you use, the depth of your league, or the specific scoring settings, a little bit of preparation can go a long way. Good luck!