Fantasy Consistency: Top-150

Earlier this month, I explored the concept of consistency in fantasy hoops. In that column we looked at the top-50 players, determining for example that Giannis Antetokounmpo and Steph Curry were the golden standard for fantasy consistency. These are the ‘fantasy metronomes’, the players you can plug into your lineups and know that as long as they’re healthy, they will produce.

There is substantial variance among elite players, but I eventually wanted to extend the analysis to the top-150 players, and what better time than the present? With the season half over, we have a big enough sample size to be confident in the results. And with the trade deadline approaching and fantasy owners looking ahead to their playoffs, analyzing player performance is of paramount importance.

Before looking at the results, let’s first look at the methodology.

• The population is the top-150 players for the NBA’s official points-league system, plus extra players I found interesting (165 total)
• For each player, a) convert season-long boxscores into ‘fantasy point’ totals for each game, then b) determine fantasy-point averages and standard deviations.
• Divide standard deviation into season-long average and invert the results (i.e. 20% volatility becomes 80% consistency) -- collectively, this is the “Consistency Index.”

Notes:

+I did not include DNPs, whether stemming from rest, injury, suspension, etc. For instance, Chris Paul would look far more ‘inconsistent’ if you factored in the games he missed with a knee injury. Readers should evaluate DNP-risk separately from the consistency I’m talking about today, which is how players perform when they’re active.

+Players with very small sample sizes were excluded. It’s not very meaningful to know how consistent Danilo Gallinari (11 games) and Mike Conley (12 games) have been this season.

+This is based on the NBA’s Official Fantasy Points system, so it doesn’t explicitly measure FG% or FT% (although they do impact scoring, so they are implicitly measured).

+If you’re interested in joining a mid-season league, you can do so here! You can also create your own league, tailored to your settings, right here.

+As I wrote in my column earlier this month, “The most consistent players aren’t necessarily better, and the most volatile players aren’t worse. If you’re swinging for the fences in a DFS league, you might prefer a player whose volatility will scare away other owners, in the hopes that he ‘hits’ that night. On the other hand, you might desire more consistent players if you’re looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs and don’t want to risk an off-week from your one mercurial superstar. You can’t make those decisions, though, until you know which player is which.”

Editor’s Note: Looking for an edge in your fantasy leagues? The NBA Season Pass provides weekly projections, rankings, the popular Pickups of the Day column, exclusive columns and customizable stat options. It’s the extra tool that can take your fantasy basketball teams to the next level.

A quick example: Damian Lillard has averaged 42.13 fantasy points per game this season. His standard deviation is 8.89 fantasy points per game. You can generally expect him to stay within 33.2 - 51.0 fantasy points per night (78.9% consistency).

	Consistency	Consistency Rank	NBA Official Fantasy Points	Usage Rate	Minutes
Stephen Curry	83.2%	1	45.6	30.9%	32.8
Giannis Antetokounmpo	81.7%	2	52.8	31.6%	37.4
Russell Westbrook	80.2%	3	53.5	34.7%	35.8
Kyrie Irving	79.3%	4	39.3	31.5%	32.8
Damian Lillard	78.9%	5	42.1	29.7%	36.7
Kevin Durant	78.3%	6	48.0	30.2%	34.8
Blake Griffin	77.6%	7	39.9	29.6%	34.4
DeMarcus Cousins	77.6%	8	52.6	32.4%	36.5
Harrison Barnes	77.0%	9	30.9	24.4%	34.8
Al Horford	76.6%	10	33.7	18.1%	32.7
James Harden	76.6%	11	53.7	35.9%	36.0
Klay Thompson	76.5%	12	31.6	24.3%	34.3
Dennis Schroder	76.0%	13	34.6	30.3%	31.9
C.J. McCollum	74.9%	14	33.3	26.1%	36.4
LaMarcus Aldridge	74.7%	15	39.0	28.7%	34.1
Marc Gasol	74.4%	16	37.7	26.4%	34.5
LeBron James	74.3%	17	53.3	30.8%	37.0
John Wall	73.9%	18	41.5	28.5%	34.3
Kemba Walker	73.8%	19	36.7	27.3%	34.6
Jimmy Butler	73.5%	20	41.1	24.5%	36.9
Andre Drummond	73.2%	21	44.0	20.7%	32.9
Chris Paul	72.8%	22	44.2	24.1%	32.3
J.J. Redick	72.5%	23	26.5	20.8%	32.6
Joel Embiid	72.4%	24	45.8	33.3%	31.5
Karl-Anthony Towns	72.1%	25	43.3	22.3%	35.6
Carmelo Anthony	72.1%	26	29.8	24.3%	32.6
Goran Dragic	71.7%	27	30.5	26.8%	32.1
Gary Harris	71.5%	28	30.6	20.0%	34.9
Andrew Wiggins	71.4%	29	29.9	23.7%	36.2
Draymond Green	71.4%	30	37.4	17.0%	32.4
Clint Capela	71.3%	31	34.9	20.6%	26.4
DeMar DeRozan	71.2%	32	39.9	29.9%	34.7
Tobias Harris	71.2%	33	29.0	23.2%	32.5
Victor Oladipo	71.1%	34	42.2	30.3%	34.1
Kyle Lowry	71.0%	35	35.6	22.1%	33.0
Steven Adams	70.8%	36	30.7	16.8%	32.0
Jaylen Brown	70.8%	37	26.1	20.5%	31.7
Ben Simmons	70.6%	38	41.1	23.6%	35.0
J.J. Barea	70.3%	39	24.0	25.3%	22.9
Jrue Holiday	70.1%	40	35.6	22.2%	37.0
Lauri Markkanen	70.0%	41	28.9	22.0%	30.3
Justin Holiday	69.8%	42	26.4	18.3%	34.3
Anthony Davis	69.5%	43	50.2	27.4%	36.3
Bogdan Bogdanovic	69.4%	44	20.5	19.4%	26.8
Paul George	69.3%	45	37.5	25.3%	36.4
Tyreke Evans	69.3%	46	34.4	28.3%	31.2
Nikola Mirotic	69.1%	47	30.4	26.0%	24.7
Dirk Nowitzki	69.0%	48	23.4	20.6%	25.1
DeAndre Jordan	69.0%	49	34.2	14.2%	32.1
Evan Fournier	69.0%	50	28.1	23.4%	32.8
Robin Lopez	68.9%	51	23.6	20.5%	28.5
Domantas Sabonis	68.8%	52	26.0	22.4%	25.3
Trevor Ariza	68.7%	53	25.1	13.4%	36.0
Hassan Whiteside	68.6%	54	37.0	24.2%	26.1
Reggie Jackson	68.4%	55	25.7	25.9%	27.1
Bradley Beal	68.3%	56	37.0	28.1%	35.9
Joe Ingles	68.1%	57	23.0	14.7%	30.5
Eric Bledsoe	67.4%	58	32.7	27.1%	31.4
Khris Middleton	67.3%	59	34.8	24.6%	37.3
Kevin Love	67.3%	60	34.9	26.3%	28.3
DeMarre Carroll	67.1%	61	26.7	19.8%	29.2
Taj Gibson	67.1%	62	26.7	14.5%	33.8
Serge Ibaka	66.9%	63	26.2	20.0%	28.1
John Collins	66.9%	64	24.3	19.7%	22.2
Jeff Teague	66.9%	65	30.3	20.0%	33.7
Dennis Smith Jr.	66.9%	66	27.4	28.4%	28.4
Nikola Jokic	66.8%	67	39.5	23.6%	31.0
Malcolm Brogdon	66.7%	68	24.9	19.5%	31.2
Devin Booker	66.7%	69	37.7	30.8%	34.5
Nikola Vucevic	66.5%	70	39.1	25.3%	29.9
Donovan Mitchell	66.5%	71	31.6	28.4%	31.7
Thaddeus Young	66.2%	72	26.8	16.8%	32.6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	66.1%	73	27.1	17.6%	33.4
Jayson Tatum	66.0%	74	26.5	18.1%	30.9
Jeremy Lamb	65.9%	75	25.9	23.4%	25.7
Courtney Lee	65.9%	76	24.7	17.5%	33.0
Enes Kanter	65.5%	77	29.3	21.7%	25.3
Allen Crabbe	65.4%	78	21.6	17.8%	29.1
Caris LeVert	65.2%	79	24.9	22.4%	26.6
Kristaps Porzingis	64.9%	80	40.3	32.7%	33.0
Dario Saric	64.8%	81	26.7	19.7%	30.7
Kyle Anderson	64.7%	82	24.3	13.7%	27.6
Tyson Chandler	64.7%	83	21.6	10.5%	25.7
Aaron Gordon	64.6%	84	34.3	24.1%	33.8
Brandon Ingram	64.6%	85	28.9	21.9%	33.8
Milos Teodosic	64.5%	86	20.7	19.1%	25.6
Lonzo Ball	64.3%	87	33.9	17.7%	33.9
Nicolas Batum	64.0%	88	24.5	17.9%	31.2
Marcus Smart	64.0%	89	23.6	19.6%	30.3
Eric Gordon	63.7%	90	27.1	25.8%	32.7
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	63.6%	91	29.0	22.6%	28.6
T.J. Warren	63.6%	92	31.6	26.3%	32.3
Kris Dunn	63.6%	93	33.3	25.3%	29.6
Myles Turner	63.5%	94	30.5	21.6%	29.2
Dwight Howard	63.4%	95	36.0	24.4%	30.4
Dewayne Dedmon	63.2%	96	24.4	18.6%	23.6
Will Barton	63.1%	97	29.0	21.4%	31.1
E’Twaun Moore	63.1%	98	21.5	15.8%	32.5
Elfrid Payton	62.9%	99	28.8	21.6%	29.3
Marcin Gortat	62.9%	100	24.6	15.3%	26.8
Kent Bazemore	62.7%	101	28.0	22.1%	28.3
Robert Covington	62.3%	102	28.8	17.8%	32.4
Bobby Portis	62.1%	103	22.5	25.7%	20.3
Wesley Matthews	61.9%	104	23.0	17.2%	34.4
Ricky Rubio	61.9%	105	25.5	22.1%	29.0
Spencer Dinwiddie	61.8%	106	28.9	20.8%	28.3
Derrick Favors	61.7%	107	26.5	19.1%	28.2
Al-Farouq Aminu	61.6%	108	23.3	14.8%	30.3
Lou Williams	61.5%	109	34.9	29.6%	32.2
Denzel Valentine	61.5%	110	22.4	15.8%	28.5
Austin Rivers	61.4%	111	26.5	22.6%	32.7
Rudy Gobert	61.2%	112	32.2	17.2%	29.7
Pau Gasol	61.2%	113	27.8	19.8%	25.3
Darren Collison	61.2%	114	26.9	17.2%	30.1
Kyle Kuzma	61.0%	115	27.8	23.0%	30.7
Avery Bradley	60.9%	116	23.2	24.9%	31.6
Rodney Hood	60.9%	117	24.2	27.7%	28.3
Bojan Bogdanovic	60.7%	118	20.1	18.6%	30.5
Kelly Oubre Jr.	60.3%	119	22.3	19.0%	27.4
John Henson	60.3%	120	22.7	15.6%	24.9
Julius Randle	60.2%	121	26.1	25.0%	23.2
Willie Cauley-Stein	60.0%	122	27.4	21.7%	27.2
Tyler Johnson	60.0%	123	22.7	19.1%	29.3
Taurean Prince	59.9%	124	24.8	19.6%	30.6
Jusuf Nurkic	59.3%	125	30.5	27.5%	27.0
Josh Richardson	59.2%	126	25.5	18.0%	34.1
Ersan Ilyasova	59.0%	127	22.6	18.2%	25.9
Marvin Williams	58.7%	128	19.4	13.9%	25.9
Jarrett Jack	58.6%	129	21.4	16.7%	26.8
Larry Nance Jr.	58.3%	130	23.9	15.8%	22.3
Wilson Chandler	58.2%	131	20.3	14.5%	31.0
Ryan Anderson	58.2%	132	20.1	14.6%	28.7
Dwyane Wade	58.1%	133	23.9	24.4%	23.1
JaMychal Green	57.9%	134	22.1	19.1%	26.8
Otto Porter	57.8%	135	29.5	17.7%	31.6
Yogi Ferrell	57.6%	136	19.6	16.2%	28.8
Zach Randolph	56.9%	137	26.3	27.6%	25.1
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	56.8%	138	21.5	17.1%	26.5
Dwight Powell	56.8%	139	17.2	15.4%	18.5
James Johnson	56.3%	140	25.0	20.0%	26.7
Tim Hardaway Jr.	56.0%	141	30.7	24.3%	32.5
Kelly Olynyk	55.8%	142	22.5	20.9%	23.6
Alex Len	55.6%	143	22.6	16.6%	20.8
Terry Rozier	55.0%	144	19.9	19.1%	23.0
Brook Lopez	54.8%	145	22.7	25.0%	21.2
Markieff Morris	54.8%	146	20.0	19.4%	25.1
Buddy Hield	54.0%	147	21.2	23.4%	24.2
George Hill	54.0%	148	20.3	16.7%	27.1
Kyle O’Quinn	53.3%	149	19.9	17.9%	17.0
Marco Belinelli	53.0%	150	18.5	21.4%	23.4
Wayne Ellington	52.4%	151	18.5	17.3%	25.8
Jonas Valanciunas	51.1%	152	23.3	21.0%	21.0
Danny Green	50.7%	153	20.5	16.0%	26.4
Wesley Johnson	50.4%	154	18.6	14.1%	24.1
Jamal Murray	50.2%	155	25.9	23.4%	29.8
T.J. McConnell	50.2%	156	22.1	14.5%	25.1
Delon Wright	49.0%	157	20.6	17.2%	21.7
Jordan Clarkson	47.5%	158	22.9	27.8%	23.2
Rajon Rondo	47.2%	159	22.8	16.2%	24.7
Marquese Chriss	46.8%	160	18.7	16.4%	21.2
Trey Lyles	44.7%	161	19.9	20.1%	20.4
Shabazz Napier	43.2%	162	19.6	19.2%	21.3
Bam Adebayo	43.0%	163	18.9	14.7%	19.9
Jordan Bell	36.8%	164	16.7	13.2%	14.4
Michael Beasley	34.6%	165	20.7	29.6%	19.3

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The results do beg the question, why? Why is Jordan Clarkson exceedingly inconsistent (47.5%), whereas J.J. Barea (70.3%) is very reliable? The big, obvious factor is how steady a player’s role has been throughout the season. Did they start out barely cracking the rotation, only to assume a 25+ minute role over the past month (Bismack Biyombo)? Were they temporarily featured on a short-handed team (Gerald Green) or recently promoted to a prominent starting role (Dejounte Murray)?

Those are the biggest reasons for extreme inefficiency, affecting guys like Michael Beasley, Jordan Bell and Shabazz Napier. Other factors may include, but are not limited to:

• Teammate injuries...dozens of possible examples.
• Slumps...Otto Porter has a below-average consistency of 57.8% this season, which has plummeted to 46.8% since mid-December.
• Differing performance due to days’ rest...Dwyane Wade is averaging 9.2 points (41.2% FGs, 40.0% FTs) and 2.6 rebounds and in five games with zero days’ rest this season, way below his season averages.
• Whether a game is home/away...Ryan Anderson is shooting 39.9% at home for 7.8 points, but on the road he’s hitting 45.2% for 12.8 points.
• Adjustments to a new team/coach/system...Jimmy Butler had a rocky few weeks to begin his first season with the Wolves, but since Dec. 1 he’s posting 80.0% consistency.

An easy way to approximate a player’s role is to look at their minutes and usage. I’ve included season averages in the table above, and indeed we find that both statistics have a solid positive correlation with consistency.

Minutes = 0.7413 (strong positive correlation)

Usage Rate = 0.4759 (moderate positive correlation)

To better understand what that means, let’s visualize the data:

Although usage is always important, minutes are more strongly correlated with consistency (and overall fantasy value, for that matter). So for instance, I’d be happier if my low-end player stepped into more playing time, rather than more ball-handling. This isn’t only applicable to young guys. As a random hypothetical, Tony Parker‘s shift to the bench could bump up his usage rate as the motor of the second unit, but any corresponding dip in playing time would wipe out potential gains. Minutes are the great equalizer.

There are so many angles to consider here, and I encourage you to sift through the numbers and see what jumps out at you...based on your current teams, past experience, etc. Any and all feedback on this column is appreciated. You can email me via the link below or find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Good luck this week!