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The NFL Draft. It was invented to add players from college, and to do so in such a manner as to reward the NFL’s worst teams more than the NFL’s best teams. To maintain some semblance of competitive balance.
While the prior year’s finish dictates current year selections, a number of elements cause the distribution to be imbalanced on an annual basis. For instance, prior year trades (and current year trades) will cause some teams to be better off. Additionally, the overlooked (by most fans) world of compensatory selections allows some really good teams to have even more value than one would expect based on their prior year’s finish.
Who owns the 2022 NFL Draft as of right now?
The first few teams may be surprising. That’s because the Jaguars and Lions, picking #1 and #2 respectively, do not own the most value in the draft. That belongs to the Jets, who don’t simply have two picks in the top-10, but they also have four picks in the top-40. The Jets are followed by the Texans (led by picks 3 and 13) and the Giants (led by picks 5 and 7). But how are playoff teams like the Chiefs, Packers and Eagles sitting inside the top-10 in total value?
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Let’s start with defining draft capital.
Certainly, the total number of picks isn’t a sound basis because first round picks are worth substantially more than seventh round picks. For that, we’ll rely on two very smart public models to create our own.
The first is average performance delivered in a player’s first 5 years based on draft slot (the AV model created by Chase Stuart) and the second is average dollars earned in non-rookie deals based upon draft slot (the OTC model created by Brad Spielberger & Jason Fitzgerald).
Several years ago, I focused on just the performance aspect when assessing draft capital. But then the guys at Over The Cap created the contractual valuation. And it seemed wise to incorporate the two together.
Performance. Dollars. Together into one metric, simply the Sharp Football Analysis Draft Value metric. But we’ll refer to it as simply “draft value” from here on out.
Clocking in with the most draft capital they had since at least 1999 is the New York Jets. Their capital in 2021 was the most they had since 2006, but even this year will vastly surpass last year. In fact, only 3 other teams have seen more draft capital in any draft since 1999. This means that the 2022 draft will be vitally important for the Jets, because coupled with last year’s draft haul, they really have a golden opportunity to turn around their franchise.
The team with the second most draft capital this year is the Houston Texans, and it truly is a remarkable development because for years, despite never having an excellent team, the Texans have never come close to having a draft haul like this one:
Third in 2022 draft capital are the New York Giants. Like the Jets and Texans, the Giants find themselves in unfamiliar territory. They haven’t seen anywhere close to the level of draft capital they have this year since well over two decades.
Earlier this offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles were near the top of 2022 draft value, but they traded with the Saints to give up some of that capital in 2022 in exchange for capital in 2023. The Eagles still rank #6 in 2022 draft capital despite the trade and are one of five teams with two draft picks inside the top-20.
The Carolina Panthers have a very unique 2022 draft. They have the number 6 overall pick, but after that, do not pick again until the very end of the fourth round. They are the only team to pick inside the top-10 but to have below average draft value. This is why many people including myself believe the Panthers should trade down from pick 6 to acquire more draft capital in this year’s draft.
David Tepper, the richest owner in the NFL, bought the Panthers in 2018. Since then: Carolina is 22-43 (5th worst record), has 0 winning seasons, has 0 playoff appearances and looking forward, has below average draft capital in 2022 while being expected to win 6 of 17 games in 2022 & miss the playoffs.
And at the tail end of the draft are the Dolphins. The Dolphins have next to nothing in draft capital this year. In fact of the 765 team drafts the last 24 years... Miami’s draft value ranks 764th.
Most of these teams mentioned with a lot of 2022 draft capital are not projected to win in 2022.
The Chiefs, however, are a team projected to be in the hunt for the 2022 Lombardi while having above average draft capital. With two picks in the first round, it’s important the Chiefs hit their needs given their chances to win a Super Bowl this year. Most mock drafts have them taking a WR with their first pick, having lost Tyreek Hill in a trade to the Dolphins this offseason.
The Bills had more wins the last two years than any back-to-back years since 1990-91 and this year they have more draft capital than each of their last two years.
In the NFC, the Bucs have their least draft capital of any draft in nearly two decades (2003). And this could be problematic because, despite seeing Tom Brady return, and despite being odds-on NFC Conf Champs, this team has a lot more holes than last year and now has very little draft capital to fill them.
The Packers are the ONLY team in NFL HISTORY to win 13+ games for 3 straight seasons and now they have more draft capital this year than in any year they’ve drafted since 2006.
Since acquiring Kirk Cousins for $84,000,000 guaranteed in 2018, over the last four years the Vikings have: one season with over 8 wins, one playoff trip, one playoff win... and now have their least draft capital since 2018.
The Patriots have less draft capital this year than any year since 2017. And they weren’t been big spenders in free agency after dropping $291M on free agents last year.
Draft Capital 2010-2022
To conclude, it’s interesting to take a historical look at draft capital used over the last decade to see how teams build.
Keep in mind, the better the team, the less capital a team “should” have, but that’s not always the case (see the Patriots for example). The worse the team, the more capital a team “should” have but again, that’s not always the case (see the Falcons for example).
At the end of the day, a lot will change during the course of the draft. Teams will trade up and down the board, which will result in the final 2022 draft capital used being different than the current draft capital. (I will pen another feature that analyzes which teams were the most aggressive in the draft and made moves up the board.)
But it’s fascinating to study where teams sit just days away from the draft. And it’s interesting to see which teams should own the draft and which teams (and their fan bases) may find themselves very bored in a few weeks with very little draft capital at their disposal.