We now have two months of NFL data, folks. No more excuses. We should be able to accurately predict everything from here on out.
I’m kidding, sort of, but having eight weeks of information should — theoretically — help us better understand how games might unfold, how offenses might attack defenses, and which players will benefit from the likeliest outcomes.
Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 8 -- teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script. Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 9.
Run Funnel Defenses
Indianapolis Colts
The league’s fourth most extreme run funnel, the Colts are giving up the third most rushing attempts per game (31.9), with balanced offenses turning toward the run time and again against the feckless horseshoes.
Consider last week, when the Saints were 14.3 percent below their expected drop back rate against the Colts and had the league’s second best EPA per rush. Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill had chunk gain after chunk gain as the Saints saw no reason to air it out against Indy. Coming into Week 8, the Saints were 1 percent above their expected drop back rate. This marked a wild departure from their usual offense.
In Week 7, the Browns went ultra run heavy against the Colts, posting a -8 percent drop back rate over expected. Not every team has turned dramatically toward the run against the Colts -- the Jaguars, Rams, and Titans were relatively balanced against Indianapolis -- but the trend is clear: Running backs should see plenty of opportunity against a vulnerable Colts defense.
What it means for Week 9: Chuba Hubbard, after seemingly taking over lead back duties in the Panthers backfield, could be in a spot that produces more volume than we might expect. The Panthers, since Thomas Brown took over play calling duties from Frank Reich, have seen their pass rate inch upward, though that doesn’t mean Carolina won’t attack via the rush in Week 9. Hubbard, who saw 15 of the team’s 20 running back rushes last week against Houston, is definitely a flex option against a massive run funnel defense allowing the tenth most yards before contact per rush.
Cleveland Browns
The Brownies have slowly but surely turned into the NFL’s most extreme run funnel defense. This is (almost) entirely due to Cleveland opponents trying desperately to avoid putting their quarterbacks in a bad spot against game-wrecking EDGE Myles Garrett and the vicious Browns pass rush.
The Browns have been solid against the rush, which is why I don’t know exactly how to handle matchups against Cleveland. No one is allowing a lower yards before contact per rush and only five teams have given up a lower rush EPA this season.
What it means for Week 9: Emari Demercado, in the most recent interaction of the Arizona backfield without James Conner, dominated carries in Week 8 against the Ravens. The rookie had 20 of the team’s 24 running back carries but lost out on most of the route running, pass catching work. Jonathan Gannon is just messing with us. I don’t like it.
UPDATE: Demercado (toe) was declared out for Week 9. Keaontay Ingram is expected to start for Arizona.
The Cardinals have been absurdly run heavy through most of the 2023 season. They’re 31st in pass rate over expected and have yet to be above their expected drop back rate in any game this season. That includes a -10 percent drop back rate over expected last Sunday against a good Baltimore rush defense. Maybe, if game script stays somewhat normal against the Browns in Week 9, Demercado — assuming no more backfield hijinks — will see another 20 rushing attempts. It’s something to consider if you’re agonizing over what to do with Demercado and his (apparent) new role as lead back.
Pass Funnel Defenses
Philadelphia Eagles
This one has been clear from the start: Eagles opponents are taking to the air every week, whether or not they’re chasing points against the green-jerseyed tush pushers.
The most extreme pass funnel defense through Week 8, the Eagles saw even the Zach Wilson-led Jets post a 5 percent drop back rate over expected against them in Week 6. The Dolphins, naturally, went super pass heavy against Philly last week. Go all the way back to Week 1 and check out the Patriots leaning on the passing attack against the Eagles (7 percent drop back rate over expected).
The Eagles are neither superb nor disastrous against the pass. They have allowed the 15th highest drop back EPA this season. Teams can get there via the pass.
What it means for Week 9: We should see the Cowboys, with the league’s 12th highest pass rate over expected, throw it a bunch against the Eagles this week barring another Dallas game with apocalyptic game script.
The Cowboys have tilted toward the pass of late. Since Week 4, they’re 4 percent over their expected drop back rate. Dak Prescott is averaging 30.1 pass attempts per game over that stretch. A burst of drop back volume against Philadelphia this week should continue to fuel target volume for CeeDee Lamb and some combination of Jake Ferguson, Michael Gallup, and Brandin Cooks. Gallup, notably, has seen 26 percent of the Cowboys’ air yards of their past three games while Cooks’ rate sits at a humble 17 percent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs, especially over the past month, have turned into one of the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel defenses. Only the Eagles, Lions, and Niners have seen a higher pass rate over expected against them in 2023.
Tampa has been nails against the rush through much of the season. They’ve allowed the second lowest EPA per rush and the tenth lowest yards before contact per rush. Suffice it to say: Tampa opponents aren’t finding much success on the ground. That’s led most Bucs opponents to drop back and sling it — creating fantasy-friendly environments along the way.
The Bills last week were 11 percent over their expected drop back rate against the Bucs, or 5 percent over their season-long rate. Three weeks ago, the always-balanced Lions offense was 13 percent above its expected drop back rate — a season high by a wide margin. The Bucs in Week 4 forced the Saints to go 4 percent over their expected drop back rate, one of only three times New Orleans has been over 0 percent this year.
What it means for Week 9: The Texans going pass heavy against Tampa this week would mark a stark departure from recent offensive trends in Houston. I think the Texans scared themselves with early-season success via a pass-first scheme and have subsequently turtleshelled into a hyper conservative, try-not-to-lose, run-first offense. Houston is 25th in pass rate over expected after being 5 percent over their expected pass rate in the season’s first month. The team’s offense in Week 8 against the Panthers was a total abomination, with a -12 percent drop back rate over expected against a weak Carolina secondary.
The Texans’ curious turn toward the run — thanks in part to poor play from the stunningly inefficient Dameon Pierce — has crushed target volume for the team’s once-exciting receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. This could, maybe, be the week Dell and Collins get some of that volume back on their side against the pass-funnel Bucs.