The PGA TOUR heads to a new host course this week, Vidanta Vallarta, for the Mexico Open.
We don’t have any course history to lean on this week but we do know it is a resort course that shouldn’t be too punishing if you miss the fairway, it’s long though at nearly 7,500 yards, and it has wall-to-wall paspalum turf.
Let’s isolate those last two characteristics and see if we can find some DFS value options that may take a quick liking to the layout.
Long Courses
Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 that stretches to 7,456 yards from the tips.
There are five par 4s that play to 475 yards or longer. That is pretty long and should result in quite a few long-iron approaches.
Here are the top performers on other long courses, over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Patrick Reed
Cameron Tringale
Austin Smotherman
Abraham Ancer
Kevin Na
Aaron Rai
Kevin Streelman
Sebastian Munoz
Aaron Wise
Charles Howell III
Brendon Todd
Carlos Ortiz
Pat Perez
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Austin Smotherman
Bo Van Pelt
Jared Wolfe
Luke Donald
Kevin Chappell
Aaron Baddeley
Martin Trainer
Peter Malnati
Scott Gutschewski
Kurt Kitayama
Ben Martin
Robert Streb
Callum Tarren
Cameron Champ
Wesley Bryan
Overlap List: The only name that shows up on both lists is Austin Smotherman.
Smotherman’s best finish this year is a T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines is one of the longest courses on TOUR so that backs up the data we saw from him on the Korn Ferry circuit, as well.
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Paspalum Greens
When you look at the PGA TOUR schedule, most events are played on courses with bentgrass or bermuda greens.
However, when you head south of the border, paspalum turf becomes much more common. That is what the pros will see this week at Vidanta Vallarta.
Here are the top performers on courses with paspalum greens, over the last two years:
Tony Finau
Abraham Ancer
Aaron Wise
Carlos Ortiz
Emiliano Grillo
Adam Long
Chad Ramey
Brendon Todd
Alex Smalley
Nate Lashley
Benjamin Griffin
Andrew Novak
Kevin Streelman
Jon Rahm
James Hahn
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Nate Lashley
Emiliano Grillo
David Lingmerth
Michael Gligic
Abraham Ancer
D.J. Trahan
Scott Brown
Vince Whaley
Tony Finau
Chase Seiffert
Brice Garnett
Fabian Gomez
Tyler Duncan
Kurt Kitayama
Grayson Murray
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Nate Lashley.
Lashley has seven career top 10s and three of those have come on paspalum greens. That is a strong ratio when you consider the small number of courses on the schedule that actually feature paspalum.
FanDuel Focus
Alex Smalley ($8,300): TheDuke product shows up on the paspalum performance list and it’s easy to see why with three of his five best finishes out on the PGA TOUR coming at the Corales. That is another relatively long course with wall-to-wall paspalum. Is there something unique about Corales that fits his eye or does this style of course just fit his game? For just $8300 on FanDuel, I’m willing to plug him in and find out.
Tony Finau ($11,500): He is second in the field in long-course performance over the last two years and first when it comes to playing on paspalum. He doesn’t have anything to write home about on his recent game log but with 10.7 more GIR than the field in his last two stroke-play events, he just may be ready to get back on track.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis.