Scottie Scheffler is the obvious favorite to win the 2024 Masters Tournament.
The world No. 1 hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since January, and he won in back-to-back starts, at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, before his most recent T-2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He’s a generational ball-striker and again sits atop the PGA Tour’s strokes-gained-approach category by a noticeable margin, which bodes well for Augusta National, where 11 of the last 12 champions were top 7 in greens in regulation for the week.
Scheffler’s short game isn’t too shabby, either, as he ranks fourth in strokes gained around-the-green; 15 of the last 17 Masters winners were top 10 in scrambling.
Oh, and did we mention he’s won the Masters before? The 2022 green-jacket winner was T-10 last year, his fourth straight top-20 finish at Augusta National.
But if not Scheffler, then who? Here’s how we believe the rest of the field stacks up behind Scheffler:
Nos. 89-81
89. Jasper Stubbs (a)
88. Mike Weir
87. Vijay Singh
86. Jose Maria Olazabal
85. Fred Couples
84. Danny Willett
83. Santiago de la Fuente (a)
82. Camilo Villegas
81. Neal Shipley (a)
Stubbs is having a tough go on the PGA Tour Australasia this year. Weir has whiffed in all but two of his past 13 trips to Augusta National. Singh and Olazabal have each missed seven of their past eight Masters cuts. Couples is battling a back issue, so it’s hard to imagine him replicating last year’s T-50. Speaking of injuries, Willett has been out since last September because of shoulder surgery. De la Fuente has enjoyed a solid college season at Houston with three top-5s, but this is a different beast obviously. Villegas’ best finish this year has been a T-50 at the 59-man Sentry. Shipley might’ve played over 100 rounds at Augusta National since finishing runner-up in the U.S. Amateur, but this is his first pro start.
Nos. 80-71
80. Gary Woodland
79. Lee Hodges
78. Bubba Watson
77. Zach Johnson
76. Charl Schwartzel
75. Grayson Murray
74. Adam Schenk
73. Nick Dunlap
72. Ryan Fox
71. Cam Davis
Woodland just turned in his best start since brain surgery, a T-21 in Houston, but there’s still risk. Hodges’ approach play is solid (top 70 in strokes gained), but the rest hasn’t been pretty and has explained just one finish better than T-24 this season. Now 45, Watson is a year removed from shooting 77-76 at the Masters, and he’s got just one top-20 in five LIV starts this season. Johnson hasn’t cracked the top 30 since the 2015 Masters and just hasn’t been sharp tee to green. Schwartzel has been underwhelming since joining LIV, though he has made four straight Masters cuts, including a T-50 last year. Murray has slumped since winning the Sony Open as he’s been one of the worst putters on Tour (outside the top 140 in strokes gained). Schenk has struggled this season with poor approach play, but he did notch his first top-10 of the year with a T-5 in San Antonio. It’s tough to rank a talent like Dunlap here, especially coming off a T-11 in Houston, but he’s nearly last in greens in regulation since turning pro. Ryan Fox has had a rough go of late (4 of 7 MCs), though he was T-26 in his Masters debut last year. When it comes to Davis, he has three top-25s in his last five Tour starts, but several important metrics don’t like him this week, mainly approach play and short game.
AUGUSTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 07: Tiger Woods leaves the course to enter the Clubhouse after practicing a few holes with Rob McNamara and caddie Lance Bennett prior to the 2024 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 07, 2024 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
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Nos. 70-61
70. Sepp Straka
69. Luke List
68. Stewart Hagestad (a)
67. Tiger Woods
66. Sungjae Im
65. Tom Kim
64. Rickie Fowler
63. Eric Cole
62. Ryo Hisatsune
61. J.T. Poston
Straka has back-to-back top-50s to open his Masters career, but he’s been wildly inconsistent (4 of 8 MCs; T-16 at Players). While List is No. 34 in strokes gained approach, he’s No. 114 in total strokes gained. Hagestad won the Azalea Amateur a couple weeks ago and is the most decorated mid-amateur in decades. A five-time Masters champion, Woods withdrew during last year’s third round, and walking remains his biggest challenge. Here me out on Im: He’s got a nice track record at Augusta National (three top-16s, including a T-2 in 2020), but he’s also outside the top 130 in strokes gained approach. Don’t fall too in love with Kim’s T-16 last year in his Masters debut; he is No. 142 in total strokes gained this season. Fowler is back after three consecutive missed Masters, but he makes his return at No. 128 in the FedExCup, the worst mark among top-50 players from a season ago. Coming off a MC at Valero, Cole is a top-50 approach player, yet he doesn’t hit a lot of greens and is also outside the top 100 around the green. For Hisatsune, the short game (top 35 in strokes gained around the green) will need to carry him. Poston is top 20 in greens in regulation, yet nearly outside the top 100 in strokes gained approach.
Nos. 60-51
60. Adam Hadwin
59. Sergio Garcia
58. Thorbjorn Olesen
57. Justin Rose
56. Christo Lamprecht (a)
55. Min Woo Lee
54. Denny McCarthy
53. Max Homa
52. Jason Day
51. Tommy Fleetwood
Hadwin owns a pair of top-5s in his last four starts, but he’s only played the Masters once in the past five years (MC in 2020) and the ball-striking has hurt him here. Garcia let one slip away from him at LIV Miami, but contending is a good sign as he’s missed four of his last five Masters cuts. Olesen was T-21 last time out at Augusta National (2019), and he just was T-14 at Valero to snap a skid of three straight MCs. Rose should make the cut, as he’s done so 16 of 18 tries here, but at No. 165 in strokes gained approach and coming off two straight MCs on Tour, don’t expect much else. The 6-foot-9 Lamprecht has enormous length, a nifty short game and has already led a major championship after the first round (2023 Open Championship). Lee will surely be a trendy pick, especially considering he was T-14 in his Masters debut in 2022, but he’s struggled since his T-2 at PGA National and he’s hitting fewer than 64% of his greens this year. What a finish by McCarthy in San Antonio (well, before the last wedge shot), and though he hadn’t been sharp before that, he still enters his Masters debut top 30 in total strokes gained and one the Tour’s best putters. There’s a reason Homa doesn’t have anything better than a T-43 at the Masters in four trips now. Day has been practicing at Augusta National since at least Friday, when he was spotted in the tournament practice area during the ANWA; he’s been putting a ton of pressure on his top-10 short game this year, and his best finish in his last three Masters is last year’s T-39. The T-7 at Valero is nice, but Fleetwood is No. 165 in strokes gained approach entering this week.
Nos. 50-41
50. Byeong Hun An
49. Harris English
48. Emiliano Grillo
47. Stephan Jaeger
46. Adrian Meronk
45. Kurt Kitayama
44. Phil Mickelson
43. Peter Malnati
42. Jake Knapp
41. Taylor Moore
An is top 20 in greens in regulation this year, though he’s missed back-to-back cuts. English, T-21 here back in 2021, had posted four straight top-25s on Tour before last week’s MC at Valero. Grillo is top 35 in greens in regulation and had a T-16 back at the 2016 Masters, though there are some concerns with his short game. Jaeger didn’t just win in Houston, he’s also No. 15 in total strokes gained. Three top-10s on LIV this year for Meronk, who MC’d in last year’s Masters debut. Kitayama MC’d in his Masters debut, but he’s played solid late, most notably posting a top-20 at The Players. Before you discard Mickelson for his 47th finish at LIV Miami on Sunday, remember that last year’s Masters T-2 came a day after he ended 41st at LIV Orlando. Malnati enters his first Masters fourth on Tour in strokes gained putting with above-average approach and around-the-green numbers. The winning momentum has worn off for Knapp, but he’s a top-20 approach player, has length and a sneaky short game. Moore is in good form (T-2 in Houston last time out) and poised to build off last year’s T-39 in his Masters debut.
ORLANDO, FL - MARCH 07: Viktor Hovland of Norway looks on at the 11th hole during the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer Bay Hill Golf Course on March 07, 2024 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Nos. 40-31
40. Nicolai Hojgaard
39. Austin Eckroat
38. Akshay Bhatia
37. Tyrrell Hatton
36. Matthieu Pavon
35. Patrick Cantlay
34. Erik van Rooyen
33. Keegan Bradley
32. Viktor Hovland
31. Matt Fitzpatrick
This year, Hojgaard is the best approach player in the world from 150 to 200 yards, per Data Golf. If this wasn’t his debut, the Tour’s No. 10 approach player, Eckroat, would be ranked much higher. Bhatia‘s victory at Valero continues an impressive recent run, and he’s No. 12 in strokes gained approach, but the injury scare Sunday knocks him down a bit. Hatton has made four of his past five Masters cuts, though his best finish is just T-18. No. 6 on Tour in total strokes gained, we’ll see if Pavon can display that in his Masters debut. Cantlay is T-17 or better in three of his past five Masters, but he’s nearly outside the top 150 in strokes gained approach and outside the top 100 around the green. Van Rooyen has missed back-to-back cuts, but he remains top 25 on Tour in total strokes gained. The positive is Bradley was T-23 last year at Augusta National and top 25 in both GIR and proximity to the hole, but the negative is he’s missed three of his last five cuts on Tour. Last year’s Masters T-7 was his best, but Hovland has just one top-20 this year, is ranked outside the top 100 in strokes gained approach and is back to being the worst chipper on Tour. Fitzpatrick was fifth at The Players and T-10 at Valero, and he owns three finishes of T-21 or better in his last five Masters.
Nos. 30-21
30. Chris Kirk
29. Cameron Smith
28. Adam Scott
27. Brian Harman
26. Bryson DeChambeau
25. Nick Taylor
24. Lucas Glover
23. Collin Morikawa
22. Russell Henley
21. Sam Burns
Kirk has been OK of late on Tour, but he’s coming off a T-23 last year at Augusta National and has very encouraging approach and around-the-green numbers. Don’t buy into the hype with Smith; he cooled off here last year (T-34) and is way down the trending table on Data Golf. Scott knows Augusta National, and he’s got four top-20s in his last six starts on Tour. Harman remains a very stout No. 20 on Tour in total strokes gained, and he’s poised to shake off his two straight MCs at Augusta National; he was T-12 in 2021. DeChambeau has exited each of his last two Masters on Friday and his best finish remains when he was an amateur in 2016, but he’s been on a roll on LIV with four straight top-10s. Taylor was T-29 at the fall Masters in 2020, and he’s No. 12 right now on Tour in strokes gained approach. Glover was T-30 two years ago here, his last Masters appearance, and his top-10 approach and around-the-green numbers will always play at Augusta National. Morikawa is currently No. 80 on Tour in strokes gained approach. Will be tough for Henley to back up last year’s Masters T-4, but he still checks a lot of boxes, including No. 21 in total strokes gained and a recent solo fourth at Valero. Burns got some confidence with last year’s Masters T-29, and he’s top 10 on Data Golf’s trending table.
Nos. 20-11
20. Dustin Johnson
19. Si Woo Kim
18. Patrick Reed
17. Justin Thomas
16. Cameron Young
15. Sahith Theegala
14. Wyndham Clark
13. Ludvig Åberg
12. Joaquin Niemann
11. Rory McIlroy
He’s won on LIV this year, but to be honest, I have no clue if Johnson will be the guy who was T-48 last year at the Masters or T-12 the year before. Kim has a T-12 and nothing worse than T-39 in his past five Masters starts, plus he’s No. 13 on Tour in total strokes gained, boosted by his approach play and short game. Never count Reed out at the Masters; he’s got three top-10s in his past four trips, plus that win in 2018. The Bones split is concerning, though Thomas still has three top-12s in his last five Masters starts and is No. 6 in strokes gained approach; a perfect buy-low candidate this week. Young was T-7 last year at the Masters, was runner-up in his last Tour event and is No. 15 in strokes gained approach. Fifth in strokes gained total on Tour is Theegala, the guy who has three top-10s in his last five starts on Tour and was solo ninth last year here. Only Scheffler has been better over his past five starts than Clark, per Data Golf, but this is his Masters debut. Same goes for Åberg, though it helps being a first-timer when you’re No. 7 on Tour in proximity. We’ll see if Niemann‘s scorching play internationally will translate this week; I think it does. Seems like McIlroy is searching a bit, and though the solo third at Valero is encouraging, he’s still outside the top 60 in strokes gained approach.
PALM HARBOR, FLORIDA - MARCH 24: Xander Schauffele of the United States reacts on the 17th green during the final round of the Valspar Championship at Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club on March 24, 2024 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
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Nos. 10-1
10. Tony Finau
9. Will Zalatoris
8. Corey Conners
7. Shane Lowry
6. Brooks Koepka
5. Jordan Spieth
4. Hideki Matsuyama
3. Jon Rahm
2. Xander Schauffele
1. Scottie Scheffler
A couple top-10s in his last five Masters and no MCs for Finau, who is top 10 in strokes gained approach and coming off a T-2 in Houston. Zalatoris’ Masters finishes look like this – second in 2021, T-6 last year – and he’s unsurprisingly a top-10 approach player right now on Tour. Forget last year’s MC at the Masters; Conners has three straight top-10s before that, and he’s top 4 in both strokes gained approach and GIR. One spot better than Conners in strokes gained approach is Lowry, who has four straight top-25s at Augusta National, including a T-3 two years ago. Koepka was T-45 at LIV Miami, but I’d be shocked if he didn’t contend again; he’s got a pair of T-2’s here in his last five starts. The Tour’s top player around the green, Matsuyama, has rolled off four straight finishes of T-12 or better on Tour, including his win at Riv. The defending champion is now on LIV, but Rahm will be highly motivated to prove he still is a force. Schauffele ranks only behind Scheffler in total strokes gained this season, and he’s got a pair of T-3’s at Augusta National in his past five trips. See above for why Scheffler is the unquestioned favorite this week.