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Valero Texas Open: Best bets at TPC San Antonio

McIlroy searching for 'formula that works'
Rory McIlroy is making a slight change to his schedule ahead of the 2024 Masters Tournament at Augusta National as he searches for a formula that works.

With just one week until the Masters, the PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. Played on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio features a tough test and a great tune-up for those playing at Augusta next week. This is also the last opportunity for those who have yet to qualify for the Masters, to do so.

TPC San Antonio is a 7,438-yard par 72 course that favors shot makers and guys skilled with their wedges. With 64 bunkers on the course, sand save percentage is important. However, the three most important metrics I used this week were Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Driving Distance, and Par 5 Scoring.

Key Metrics Correlated to Succes:

  • SG: Ball Striking
  • Driving Distance
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Sand Saves
  • SG: Putting
  • SG: Around the Green

Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Hideki Matsuyama to win +2300

Hideki Matsuyama to win the Texas Open was my first click of the tournament. Not only does he pass the “eye test,” but his numbers back it up. Already with a win on the season at the Genesis Invitational, Matsuyama’s numbers jump off the page. Over the last 24 rounds, he’s second in SG: Total only behind Ludvig Åberg.

In Matsuayma’s last four events, he’s finished inside the top 25 at the Phoenix Open, won the Genesis, and finished inside the top 15 at both the Arnold Palmer and The Players.

Skill was never the issue for Matsuyama, it was health. He’s seemingly healthy again and striking the ball incredibly well.

If you’d like to have a little bit of fun, you can bet him to win this week and then Masters at +18000.

Other Outright Bets: Ludvig Åberg +1200, Akshay Bhatia +6000 0.25un, Keith Mitchell +6000 0.25un, Tom Kim +6000 0.25un, Erik Van Rooyen +10000 0.15un, Andrew Novak +12500 0.1un, Davis Thompson +10000 0.15un

Jordan Speith Top 20 +100

There might have been a bout of insanity when I placed this bet. Jordan Spieth has done nothing to command the respect and expectations of finishing inside the top 20. This season has been one to forget for him, but there should always be a different expectation when he turns up to play an event in Texas.

Speith is a perfect course fit here. He’s the definition of a shot maker.

Spieth could be the biggest wild card this weekend. On Saturday night if you told me he missed the cut I would not be surprised. If you told me he was T1, I wouldn’t be surprised either.

His back-to-back missed cuts at The Players and Valspar were a terrible display of approach play and horrible wedges. However, like many of the greats, I can’t expect him to come to this tournament and not have drilled that down during his off time.

Even with his game in rough shape, getting even money to take Spieth to finish inside the top 20 at a shot makers course is something that doesn’t happen often. So win or lose, it’s a bet I feel obliged to take.

Other Placement Bets: Corey Conners Top 20 +110, Bhatia Top 40 –105, Mitchell Top 40 –105, Novak Top 40 +130, Harris English Top 40 –145 1.5un