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It’s one of the best days of the baseball calendar, Home Run Derby day. If you checked out my video on the subject over the weekend, then you have an idea where I’m heading. We’re about to see some of the premier power hitters in today’s game get cleared for takeoff from NASA.
Kyle Schwarber to win +310:
The big boy hits TATERS. Already sitting at 29 on the year (2nd most in MLB), Kyle Schwarber nearly hit his season total of 30.5, which if you remember was one of my first player prop bets on the season. The easiest of cashes. Schwarb-Daddy draws the legendary, but ancient Albert Pujols -- who is more of a relic than an actual competitor -- in the first round. If (and when) he wins, Schwarber faces either Juan Soto or Jose Ramirez, neither of which are slouches, but realistically he has the most raw power in the entire field. He currently has the second highest odds, and is largely sitting in the +300 to +340 range.
Kyle Schwarber vs. Pete Alonso Finals matchup +450:
If you have bothered to check out the brackets, you would see the “committee” did their best to make sure these two have the clearest path to face off in the finale. Two of the best power hitters in baseball, this is what a lot of fans want to see. Alonso is gunning for a “3-Pete” and it seems likely he would take out Ronald Acuña Jr. in the first round, as he has yet to get back to his baseball killing ways since returning from his ACL tear. Of course there are variants that could be thrown into the mix, but I believe this matchup is the most likely.
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Kyle Schwarber to defeat Pete Alonso in the Finals +900:
I feel like I’m repeating myself to no end. It’s some combination of bets one and two. I think Schwarber has a great price, an easy-ish path, and a ton of raw power to get the deed done. And while I love the Polar Bear, it’s so difficult to run this thing back three times in a row. Pete should put on a show, but the lefty slugger should topple the back-to-back champion.
Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso to both win the first round -115:
I love this bet. If I think all three of the above are going to happen, why not grab another little side bet? Both clearly would have to advance in the first round. They have butter matchups, and should probably send out missiles to get the party started early. The top two seeds should easily put up 12-15+ ta-ta’s each in the first round.
Longshot: Julio Rodriguez to win +1100
The price of Seattle. My preseason AL Rookie of the Year pick has gone nuclear the last few weeks. I love the fact that I get to see him in this contest, as well as having the world see him on this stage. Rodriguez has the swing and natural strength to be a 35+ home run guy in the near future. As he has started to figure out his swing path and time it up with incoming pitches, he’s elevated his game. It’s a bit of a reach since this is a tough contest for newcomers to win, but at the price, Julio is a guy I am looking out for. He does have a tough draw against lefty slugger and former Dodger, Corey Seager, but with his ability, it’s worth a little sprinkle.