Editor’s Note: Use promo code HOOPS5 for your $5 Rotoworld Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Get up to date rankings, projections, mock drafts, and more. Plus access to season tools to keep you at the top of your league. Get it here.
Chris Paul O/U 10.5 Assists vs. Blazers
Chris Paul and the Suns are playing up-tempo basketball without Deandre Ayton in the lineup and Portland is a good defense for CP3 to administrate tons of assists. Ayton could return tonight, so we will cap for both.
In the previous game versus Minnesota, Paul recorded 12 assists on 17.0 potential assists. This season, Paul averages 11.0 assists, which leads the league, and he is second in potential assists with 18.1 per game.
Portland allows the sixth-most assists per game to point guards and Paul posted 11 or more assists in three out of the past four versus the Blazers. CP3 hit 11 or more assists in four out of seven games this season.
Since January 2nd of 2022, Paul has played 13 regular-season games without Ayton and recorded 11 or more assists in 10 of those game (76.9%). CP3 hit his Over 28.5 PRA line in 11 of those 13 games (84.6%) as well.
Portland allows the second-most assists per game overall to opposing teams (28.1) and with Ayton in the lineup this year, Paul has posted 9, 11, 12, 9 and 9 assists in those five games.
In five games versus Portland with Ayton, Paul posted 9, 7, 11, 14 and 12 assists, hitting the past three meetings.
I played CP3 Over 10.5 Assists at -122 odds on FanDuel. I would play this to -135.
Pick: Chris Paul Over 10.5 Assists (1u)
Luka Dončić O/U 17.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Raptors
In Luka Dončić‘s last six meetings versus the Raptors (seven overall), Doncic recorded 21, 21, 21, 16, 22 and 22 rebounds and assists during that span.
After watching Nikola Jokić choose not to score last night but record a triple-double, I believe Toronto will attempt to double-team Doncic and force someone else to beat them.
Dallas is the home favorite after Toronto won 143-100 versus San Antonio on Wednesday, so this could be a letdown spot for the Raptors.
Doncic is averaging 35.0 points, 9.0 assists and 7.8 rebounds in four home games this season and hit Over 17.5 Rebounds and Assists in two out of four games. Doncic has scored seven-straight 30-point games to start this season and Toronto will attempt to break that streak.
I played Doncic Over 17.5 Rebounds and Assists for -122 odds on FanDuel and would sprinkle a triple-double.
Pick: Luka Dončić Over 17.5 Rebounds and Assists (1u)
RJ Barrett O/U 8.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. 76ers
This line is oddly low for RJ Barrett against the 76ers.
Historically, Barrett has played 10 regular-season games versus the 76ers and recorded nine or more combined rebounds and assists in eight out of 10 games (80%). He recorded eight and five R+A in those two Unders.
In those meetings, Barrett recorded 13, 11, 14, 8, 12, 12, 10, 11, 5 and 10 combined rebounds and assists.
This year, Barrett average 5.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game (8.3 R+A) on 10.0 potential assists and 10.4 rebound chances per game. There is no James Harden and Joel Embiid has been hit or miss for the 76ers, especially rebounding. Barrett should get at least six rebounds in this matchup and I like the chances he posts a few assists too.
Barrett is 4-3 to the Under this season (57%), but those Unders came against Cleveland, Milwaukee, Orlando and Detroit -- three of those four teams are tall and should limit opposing guards rebounds.
I played Barrett Over 8.5 Rebounds and Assists for +110 odds on DraftKings. I would play this to -125.
Pick: RJ Barrett Over 8.5 Rebounds and Assists (1u)
Jayson Tatum O/U 33.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Bulls
This is a big game for both teams as Chicago is on a two-game winning streak and Boston has lost three of the past four games with two losses coming in OT to Cleveland.
Tatum has been fantastic at home this season, averaging 30.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game versus Philadelphia, Cleveland and Washington.
Chicago is another positive matchup for Tatum as the Bulls rank bottom 12 in points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made to small forwards and power forwards.
Tatum is 6-1 to the Over 33.5 Points and Rebounds this season, including 3-0 at home.
In the past three meetings, Tatum recorded 34, 26 and 35 Points + Rebounds. Boston won by 23 points when he posted 26 Points + Rebounds. These teams a few weeks ago and Boston lost 120-102 and Tatum scored 26 points and grabbed eight rebounds (34 P+R).
Boston will return the favor at home and Tatum will ball out. He is liable to score 30-plus points, so I love this Over.
I laid the -7 (-114) with the Celtics as well. Zach LaVine was supposed to be well-rested for this contest but played the second night of back-to-back versus Charlotte and went 4-of-16 from the field (25%). I like Boston to win big.
This is -130 on DraftKings at 33.5, it’s -135 at 34.5 on FanDuel and some others have 35.5!
I grabbed the DK odds and would pivot to Over 26.5 or 27.5 points if you missed the 34.5 P+R.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 33.5 PRA (1u), Celtics -7 (1u)
Warriors at Pelicans (-4): O/U 233.5
This road trip for the Warriors has been brutal!
The @Whale_Capper and I talked about how we like the Magic against the Warriors on the Bet The Edge Podcast but I didn’t make the +300 ML official on Twitter (sorry). However, I like the fade here again.
Golden State is 0-4 on the ML and ATS in the past four games, plus 1-7 ATS in the last eight games.
The Warriors go from the East Coast down South to New Orleans overnight for their second back-to-back in a week. Golden State has played at Charlotte, Detroit, Miami and Orlando since Saturday. The Warriors finish off the road trip with New Orleans, who is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Lakers.
There is a possibility that Draymond Green or Klay Thompson sits and Jordan Poole moves into the starting lineup tonight, but either way, the Warriors already terrible defense gets worse.
Golden State has allowed 122.2 points per game this season (last) and ranks 25th in defensive rating. In the only second night of a back-to-back this season, Golden State lost to Detroit 128-114 as a -7.5 point road favorite.
Last season, the Warriors were 3-3 ATS and on the ML as an underdog in the second night of a back-to-back. New Orleans has the rest advantage and the Pelicans are 2-0 ATS and on the ML following a ML loss this year.
I laid the -4 with the Pelicans at -110 odds to give the Warriors an 0-5 ATS and ML road trip.
Pick: Pelicans -4 (1u)
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click here to learn more!
