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The second half of the NBA season is underway and sports bettors are eyeing the futures market and specifically, the league’s most prestigious individual award, the MVP. Before breaking down a handful of the candidates, let us define what goes into setting the odds in that betting market.
“NBA MVP voters have typically rewarded statistical contributions to winning teams. With the increasing penetration of plus-minus-based metrics into mainstream media, we take those strongly into consideration too,” Said Sam Garriock of the PointsBet Trading Team. “In essence, we attempt to rank any given case — defined by traditional counting stats, plus-minus-based metrics and team finishing position — will stack up against other cases, with some uncertainty baked in. We then assign likelihoods to each particular case occurring and multiply those two together.”
Who is the smart bet to win the NBA’s top individual award? Matt Stroup (@MattStroup) of NBC Sports EDGE recently led a discussion with other NBC Sports EDGE fantasy and sports betting talents to discuss where the race stands today and where it may well finish. To view their full conversation, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6oUBXWpg9A&t=315s.
All conversations regarding greatness in the NBA still include LeBron James. However, can a player on a .500 team no matter his personal statistics, be considered as a true MVP candidate?
“We have not seen him atop the fantasy standings in a decade,” said Ryan Knaus (@ryanknaus). “He is exceeding his own excellent marks in many categories.”
We know LeBron loves his stats, but personal statistics alone are only part of the equation a bettor must consider before making a bet on King James according to Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec).
“If you were someone who bet the Lakers nightly you would be down at this point. That is not value for the bettor.”
The odds on LeBron James winning the award as the league’s MVP currently stand at 25:1.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) added, “As someone who drafted LeBron on his fantasy team in the third round, his value is tremendous. He may well be the Fantasy MVP, but he is not the betting MVP.”
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If not James, then how about the reigning MVP of the Association, Nikola Jokic? His odds are currently 6:1.
“He is going to be on the court (a lot during the second half of the season) as he is the Alpha and Omega for the Nuggets,” said Knaus. “He is a triple double machine.”
“At 6:1 he is a better bet than LeBron but the team success (or lack thereof) is what is holding him back,“ replied Dalzell. “While he is better than LeBron, I don’t think he is the best bet on the board.”
Is the Best Bet the NBA’s all-time three-point shooter, Steph Curry?
“For a minute, he (Curry) was going to be the runaway fantasy MVP,” stated Stroup. “But he has cooled off of late shooting just 38% from the field in his last 20 games.”
“The time to make the bet on Steph Curry was prior to the season when his odds were a little longer,” said Parson. “Now, he is at +175 and what you are seeing is a lot of the liability baked into the number.”
Dalzell echoed Parson’s sentiments. “With Klay Thompson and James Wiseman coming back and eating into his minutes and touches, I’d rather fade Steph Curry at this price as well.”
With no one player out to a clear lead in the MVP race, where can bettors put their money with confidence?
“I’m gonna go down the board a bit and talk about Ja Morant,” said Parson. “Right now, the Memphis Grizzlies who came into the season with a projected win total of 41 ½ games have 31 wins and are 15 games over .500. He is the leader of that team so at 15:1 down from 35:1 I think Morant is definitely worthy of MVP consideration.”
Dalzell almost agrees with Parson.
“I bet Ja Morant to get Most Improved Player so I think that speaks to the testament of how great he’d doing this season that he is in the MVP discussion. But I like Giannis for MVP. He has career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and almost three-point percentage as well. He’s 3:1 odds right now which isn’t the best number but they are contenders in the East and for the best overall record. I like Giannis at 3:1.”
What does PointsBet think of the current field of MVP candidates?
“As for dark horses beyond the big four (of Curry, Antetokounmpo, Embiid and Jokic) we are extremely bearish,” says Garriock. “Ja Morant is a popular choice given the parallels to Derrick Rose’s MVP season, but we see his as a weaker case than even Rose, who is widely acknowledged as the incorrect choice in the weakest MVP year in recent memory.”
Where does this discussion leave bettors looking to get involved in the MVP race? It leaves them with options...and more options than usual at the midway point of a season.
Enjoy the sweat.
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