NFL fans across the country carry hope with them into every summer. They know that every season brings with it playoff favorites along with a surprise team or two. Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs are a constant in the postseason, but for every Patrick Mahomes’ playoff appearance there is a Brian Daboll and New York Giants’ team that surprises and earns a postseason berth. Annually it seems that for every Joe Burrow there is a Geno Smith. Every fan desperately hopes their team falls into one of those two categories.
So how can bettors attack the marketplace and help them turn their tickets into cash rather than coasters?
Let’s start with a look at the best teams ATS in 2022. Know that a favorable overall W-L record does not guarantee a strong record ATS. Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings were 13-5 including their loss in the playoffs but just 7-10-1 ATS. The Tennessee Titans went 7-10 in 2022 but were 9-7-1 ATS. The two records are not correlated.
That said, can we learn anything from last year’s numbers? Can the teams duplicate their performance ATS in 2023? Our ultimate goal is to turn tickets into cash and not coasters.
New York Giants 13-4-0
Cash: Brian Daboll believes he has a QB (Daniel Jones +5000 MVP), and his team comes prepared to play every week (Giants +600 to win the NFC East).
Coaster: Last season the Giants played the 4th easiest schedule. This season, they play the 3rd most difficult. Buyer beware.
Cincinnati Bengals 12-4-0
Cash: Joe Burrow (+750 to earn MVP honors) remains under center and Cincy’s strength of schedule is far easier this season (17th most difficult) than last (3rd toughest).
Coaster: The Bengals’ defense finished 29th in the NFL in sacks and did little to improve. Will Jonah Williams embrace the move to right tackle?
(Watch More: Florio - 2023 NFL Storylines)
Detroit Lions 12-5-0
Cash: Only three teams scored more than the Lions last season and Motown added rookie playmaker Jahmyr Gibbs (+900 OROY).
Coaster: This team is now the hunted (+130 to win the NFC North / +1000 to win the NFC) which is often more challenging than when you are the lovable underdog.
Los Angeles Chargers 11-5-1
Cash: Justin Herbert (+1400 MVP / +3500 OPOY) is a star on a team that added wideout Quentin Johnson (+2000 to win OROY).
Coaster: Did the Chargers show substantial growth in Year 2 of the Brandon Staley (+2500 COY) era? Not sure. And the AFC is loaded with playoff contenders.
San Francisco 49ers 11-6-0
Cash: Defending DPOY Nick Bosa (+1100 leads a 49ers’ defense that is relentless.
Coaster: Are Bosa and company good enough to win 13-10 each week (SF is +350 to win the NFC) until this team finds a healthy quarterback they can trust?
Can these teams cash tickets for us again this season? Or will said tickets be coasters?
Predicting future outcomes is not just about studying past results. However, that information is part of the process. More to come.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.
Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick are talking NFL 2023 regularly on Bet the EDGE. Find them wherever you get your favorite podcasts.