I have a Christmas Eve and Christmas Day Boost (+240) available on PointsBet under “Booster Odds” -- click here to ride with me! Enjoy the holidays and best of luck with your bets!
Packers at Dolphins (-3.5): O/U 50.5
The Packers have a path to the postseason with a win here. I took the +800 to make the playoffs prior to the Monday Night Football win over the Rams and sitting at +650, I still see value.
That +650 value depends on a win here as the Packers have two home games remaining versus divisional opponents, the Vikings and Lions -- two beat-able teams.
Miami is 4-3 ATS as a favorite this year and 6-1 on the ML with Tua Tagovailoa as the quarterback. The Dolphins lost their first game as a favorite in Week 15 on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers.
The Dolphins are 4-0 on the ML versus teams with losing records and the Packers are 1-5 on the ML against teams with winning records, but I think something will give here.
Since Week 9, the Packers are 7th in points per drive with 2.37 after ranking 26th from Weeks 1-8 with 1.56 points per drive. Green Bay is getting healthier, especially in the wide receiver department and that will make a difference.
Everyone counted Aaron Rodgers out and rightfully so when they were one-dimensional, but the Packers aren’t dead yet and with all the motivation to make the playoffs boosted by a win coming off the bye -- give me the Packers +3.5 and a sprinkle on the ML down in Miami.
Besides, if you could spend Christmas anywhere in the U.S. -- Miami would be a good choice for a Wisconsin resident -- Go Pack Go!
Pick: Packers +3.5 (1u)
Raiders at Steelers (-2.5): O/U 38.0
This is a monumental game for both teams as they fight for their playoff lives in freezing temperatures.
The Steelers are playing for legend Franco Harris, who passed away earlier this week. This Saturday’s game on Christmas Eve was the 50th-year anniversary of Franco’s immaculate reception versus the Raiders in 1972.
Pittsburgh was honoring him for this game, so the atmosphere and motivational aspects of this game will favor the Steelers. The Raiders are one loss away from being eliminated and it should have come last week versus the Patriots, but Las Vegas survived with the luckiest win of the year.
Since the Steelers’ Bye Week (Week 9), Pittsburgh’s offense has improved drastically. Per SharpFootballanaylsis, the Steelers have converted 54.8% of third-downs since then, which is second in the NFL and they now have 35 drives of 10 or more plays this season, which is tied for the most with the Chiefs.
The rushing game and offensive line has stepped up the most with a rotation of quarterback play, which I think continues against a poor Raiders rushing defense.
Pittsburgh is going to ground and pound the Raiders in the cold and play hard-hitting defense. I played the Steelers ML at -138 odds and risked 1.5 units.
Pick: Steelers ML (Risk 1.5u)
Najee Harris O/U 60.5 Rushing Yards vs. Raiders
Najee Harris should have a big game on Saturday and let’s hope it’s dedicated to Franco Harris.
The Steelers rushing game has improved almost 60 yards per game in the past seven weeks. The offense averages 144.3 rushing yards per game over their past seven contests after averaging 87.9 yards per game prior.
Harris has been a monster lately, raking in 86 or more rushing yards in four of the last six games and 65 or more in five of the previous eight. Harris is coming off 24 rushing attempts versus the Panthers, his most on the year and tied fourth-most in his two-year career.
The 24-year-old has five rushing touchdowns in the last five games, scoring four separate games compared to one rushing touchdown in the first nine games of the season.
The Raiders rushing defense allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to rush for 172 yards on 19 carries (one TD) last week and we saw Cam Akers, Kenneth Walker, Latavius Murray, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara all scored at least one touchdown against Las Vegas since Week 8.
Austin Ekeler was the only running back not to score versus Vegas during that span and he had the worst odds (lol).
I grabbed Harris Over 60.5 Rushing Yards at -115 odds on DraftKings and sprinkled +125 odds on a touchdown. I would play this to 69.5, where I imagined this would be.
Pick: Najee Harris Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (1u), Najee Harris TD (0.5u)
Derrick Henry O/U 106.5 Rushing Yards vs. Texans
Ryan Tannehill is out versus Houston and Malik Willis is in, but it doesn’t matter because all eyes are on Derrick Henry and his rushing props against the Texans.
Versus Houston, Henry has totaled 211, 212, 250 and 219 rushing yards in the last four meetings with two or more touchdowns all four games (nine total rushing touchdowns).
Henry averaged 6.6 yards per carry or better in those four games with 32 or more rushing attempts in three of them, per statmuse. We could see that type of production again with Willis at quarterback.
There are a few stats that support Henry, even though we all know what he is capable of against the Texans.
Per SharpFootballanaylsis, 42.6% of the rushing attempts against Houston have gained five or more yards, which is 30th in the league and 32.2% of the Houston rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, ranking 31st in the NFL.
This is obviously a good spot for Henry and with Ryan Tannehill out, Malik Willis opens up read-options and more running plays for the two. No one in the NFL sees an eight-man box more than Henry, so it doesn’t make a difference with or without Tannehill, in my opinion.
I played Henry Over 106.5 Rushing Yards at -110 odds and would go to 114.5. I sprinkled two touchdowns (+330) and plan on sprinkling 150-plus rushing yards. We took this for 2 units earlier this season, so we will go 1 unit here.
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 106.5 Rushing Yards (1u), Derrick Henry 2+ TDs (0.25u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
