NFL fans love offense and love betting the OVER. However, not every game or every team is ripe to hit the OVER consistently. In fact, only five teams hit the OVER in more than 50% of their games last season.
Patrick Mahomes (+700 MVP) and the Kansas City Chiefs? No sir. The league’s most productive offense that scored 584 points last season but including the playoffs, the Super Bowl champs hit the OVER in just nine of their twenty games.
Remember, some of the factors the sports books consider when setting Totals include personnel, injuries, gameplans, and the overall schedule each team has and will play. That total is further adjusted by the amount of money wagered and who is placing the wager.
As mentioned, only five teams hit the OVER more often than not last season. Three of the five play in the same division. Bettors love the OVER so let’s discuss keys for these five teams to again hit the OVER more than half the time and in the process turn 2023 tickets into cash as opposed to coasters.
Minnesota Vikings 12-6-0
Cash: As good as Kirk Cousins (+5000 MVP), Justin Jefferson (+1400 OPOY), and the offense were at putting up points, the defense was worse. The Vikings were 13-4 and yet allowed more points than they scored. The disappointing finish will dampen bettors’ enthusiasm for this team and so the totals – unlike those for many a Chiefs’ game - should be lower than in 2022 and that offers an easier lift to hit the OVER.
Coaster: Can this offense really move the ball and score as efficiently as they did last season? Only five teams scored more points than Minnesota, but were they exposed in the playoffs by Martindale’s defense?
(Read More: Top 2022 Teams ATS)
Detroit Lions 10-7-0
Cash: If Jared Goff (+2500 MVP) can handle the hype and keep his crew in the moment, this offense should sing especially with Jahmyr Gibbs (+1100 OROY) added to the mix.
Coaster: The hype train for this team left the station before last season even ended. Those Totals have and continue to be bet up without question…and the Lions secondary should be better this season with the additions of C.J. Gardner Johnson and Cameron Sutton in free agency and Brian Branch via the draft.
(Watch More: NFC East Futures Bets)
Chicago Bears 10-7-0
Cash: With D.J. Moore (+15000 OPOY) in the house, Justin Fields(+2000 MVP) now has weapons to move the ball downfield and quickly. That means more points more quickly.
Coaster: Fields’ feet and low expectations were the reasons the Bears’ low game totals went OVER more often than not last season. To cash the OVER this season (and win games) will require Fields to be accurate throwing it downfield consistently. Can he do that?
Philadelphia Eagles 10-7-0
Cash: Jalen Hurts (+1200 MVP). A.J. Brown (+5500 OPOY). DeVonta Smith. Dallas Goedert. D’Andre Swift (+12000 OPOY). So many weapons on offense. The Eagles seem to have only gotten better since that loss to Mahomes & co. And Hurts is hungry.
Coaster: The Eagles (+330 NFC Champs) will not be sneaking up on anyone, including the sportsbooks. Their totals will be sharp. Opponents will need to manage the clock if they hope to hang with Philly for the full 60. Running the ball limits possessions which limits points (in theory).
(Read More: Worst ATS Teams 2022)
Arizona Cardinals 9-7-1
Cash: This is tough to argue in favor of. Yes, totals in Cardinals’ games will certainly be lower than last year whether Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune or whomever not named Kyler Murray steps under center this season. Starting a back-up quarterback is symptomatic of the Cards’ bigger issue: an overall lack of talent. Gotta hope opposing teams take the Cards lightly which could lead to a few TDs that push the Total Over.
Coaster: There is a reason opposing teams will take games against the Red Birds for granted. The best thing happening for the Cards this season is they own Houston’s first round pick in next year’s draft.
Can these teams cash tickets hitting the OVER for us again this season? Or will these teams simply turn our tickets into coasters?
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.
