We previously discussed last season’s five best teams ATS and made the case for and against them beating the spread more often than not again in 2023. For most of the five, the task was reasonable.
The task today is a bit more challenging. Let’s look at the worst five teams ATS last season and make a case for bettors to expect them to cover the spread more often than not in 2023.
Here are the five teams who were horrendous ATS in 2022 with quick notes for each regarding how each of the five will cover and cash tickets for bettors and how each of these teams will struggle each week ATS and turn tickets into coasters.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-13-1
Cash: With Brady under center, this team scored just more than ½ the touchdowns that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scored last season. With no Brady (but the creamsicle uniforms are back!) the books may post some large spreads, but can that
offense be much less productive?
Coaster: Some true talent on defense but simply not enough. This is a defense that allowed 170 or more yards rushing to six
backs last season. That number will likely grow as the Bucs play from behind most weeks this season. Also, that defense was
and more than likely will again be pedestrian at best against the opposing No.2 and No. 3 receivers (19th DVOA).
Chicago Bears 5-11-1
Cash: The Bears added a minimum of eight and maybe as many as a dozen starters via trades, free agency, and the draft to
vastly upgrade the talent level on both sides of the ball. If Fields even takes a baby step forward, Chicago just has to be
competitive most weeks, correct?
Coaster: Can the Bears win with Fields when he faces substantially longer odds to lead the league in passing (+10000) as opposed to leading the league in rushing (+2000)?
Indianapolis Colts 6-11-0
Cash: Frank Reich and the Colts face a manageable schedule including games against C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis,
Matthew Stafford, Desmond Ridder, and Baker Mayfield.
Coaster: A rookie quarterback who was athletic but less than accurate in college playing behind an offensive line that was
offensive last season is less than a straight line to points and covering spreads.
Seattle Seahawks 7-11-0
Cash: The Seahawks’ defense adds a shutdown corner in Devon Witherspoon and an elite receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba via the Draft and retooled the defense via free agency with experienced players including Devin Bush and Julian Love.
Coaster: Last season Seattle covered in six of their first nine games but failed to do so in eight of their last nine. Ample weapons for Seattle’s offense but is their quarterback the signal caller from the first or second half of the season? There is a
reason General Manager John Schneider gave the Seahawks a manageable out from under Geno Smith’s new deal after this season.
Los Angeles Rams 6-9-2
Cash: This is a difficult case to make as the Rams are less talented than they were a season ago. That said, a healthy Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford will surprise on occasion. The backdoor cover will be a possibility some weeks.
Coaster: The backdoor cover will need to happen often for this ticket to cash. The Rams lost eight games by double digits last
season and Sean McVay has less talent this season.
Can these teams reverse course this season and cover spreads for bettors? Or will said tickets be coasters?
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.
