We are hours from the kickoff of Super Bowl 59. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are looking for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl title while the Philadelphia Eagles are looking to avenge their loss to the Chiefs two years ago on this stage.
Along with it being the most popular sporting event on the planet annually, the Super Bowl is also the most popular betting event of the year. Nearly 1.4 billion dollars are expected to be wagered on this game at legal sportsbooks.
In an effort to help each of you sort through the noise, many of the experts at NBC Sports have offered their best bets for Super Bowl 59.
Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Patrick Mahomes OVER 29.5 Rush Yards
Mahomes has gone over this number in 4 of his last 7 playoff games and he’s rushed for at least 33 yards in each of his last three Super Bowl appearances. When the game is on the line, he’s more than willing to use his legs to make a big play. The Chiefs’ offensive line has been shaky at times, and we know Philly can bring pressure, so I expect at least a few plays where Mahomes is under duress and has to tuck it and run.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
Another thing Patrick Mahomes does really well in the playoffs is take care of the football. Over his last nine playoff games, Mahomes has thrown only one interception. ONE. And the last interception he threw this season came all the way back in Week 11. He’s doing a great job protecting the football right now and I think that continues against the Eagles.
Dallas Goedert OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards
The logic on this one is simple – Goedert is the Eagles’ leading receiver this postseason and the Chiefs really struggle against tight ends. During the regular season, no team in the NFL allowed more receiving yards to opposing tight ends than the Kansas City Chiefs and they gave up 63 yards to Dalton Schultz in the Divisional Round. Goedert went over this number against the Commanders and Rams each of the past two weeks and I like him to have another big game in the Super Bowl.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Saquon Barkley OVER 22.5 rushing attempts
Barkley ran the ball 25 and 26 times against Green Bay and Los Angeles before only rushing for 18 carries versus Washington. The success Philly have been able to have has mostly correlated to Barkley’s success in moving the chains. Keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands will be pivotal, so I expect Barkley to have Over 22.5 rushing attempts as a result.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 0.5 interceptions
Mahomes has not thrown an interception for eight straight games while accounting for 16 total touchdowns in those eight games. The Eagles are a +10 in turnover differential this postseason, but that came against Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, and rookie Jayden Daniels. Mahomes ranks superior to those three and that was evident in his three-touchdown and zero-interception performance against the Eagles in the Super Bowl two years ago. I like Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions.
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown
Hurts has been a money-maker in the anytime touchdown market (-110) and that’s the way I would approach betting on him. Hurts has four rushing touchdowns in his last two games and had three in the Super Bowl loss to Kansas City in 2022. Hurts has scored a rushing touchdown in five of his eight playoff games. He is also 6-2 to the Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-160 to the Under) in his postseason career if that tells you anything. I like Hurts to get in the end zone via his legs.
Dallas Goedert OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Goedert’s receiving yards number is set at 50.5, and he averages 52.6 yards per game. The Chiefs give up the most receiving yards per game to the tight end position in the NFL at 70. Him going over 4.5 receptions and 50.5 receiving yards in this game would not surprise me at all.
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
Jalen Hurts OVER 27.5 pass attempts
Hurts’ number is suppressed by the Eagles constantly playing with the lead this season - in a game where they are underdogs, playing in a dome against Patrick Mahomes, I expect Hurts to have to do more with his arm than he has in the vast majority of Eagles’ games this season.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline (+100)
All my numbers point to the Eagles being able to run the ball all day against this Chiefs’ defense. Not only has Saquon been strong to start games, but he finishes games even better. Philadelphia’s offensive line combined with the power of Barkley will wear down the Chiefs’ defense as it has teams all season long.
Kelce over 6.5 receptions
Regardless of game state, the Chiefs offense moves through the air and after serving largely as a decoy in the AFCCG, I’m expecting a healthy workload for Kelce considering the only relatively weak spot in the Philly defense is covering bigger bodies in the intermediate area of the field. Kelce projecting for 7 to 9 catches in this contest by my numbers.
Denny Carter (@CDCarter13)
Dallas Goedert OVER 4.5 receptions
Goedert has been a go-to target for Jalen Hurts this season against man coverage and Kansas City plays man coverage at the league’s ninth-highest rate. Goedert this season has been targeted on a whopping 30 percent of his routes against man coverage looks, the second-highest mark among tight ends. TJ Hockenson was the only tight end in the regular season who averaged more yards per route against man looks.
Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat)
Patrick Mahomes OVER 24 completions
“The Chiefs’ rushing attack has been DOA in the playoffs, doing little more than “keeping the defense honest.” Honesty will not be the best policy vs. the Eagles’ mighty unit. The Chiefs are going to have to take their dink-and-dunk attack to an entirely new level, and Mahomes’ “extension of the running game” pass attempts should soar past 24.”
Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere)
JuJu Smith-Schuster UNDER 1.5 Receptions
JuJu has only topped this mark three times since Week 11 and has only been targeted more than twice on just two occasions over the past three months. The return of Hollywood Brown gives the Chiefs a better underneath option than JuJu, who could be stuck on the sidelines for much of this game.
Lawrence Jackson (@LordDontLose)
A.J. Brown 25+ receiving yards in each half
This one will be hard to trust for most people if they’re going off the Eagles’ first two playoff games (where he failed to reach 15 receiving yards in each one). When it comes down to it though, Brown is going to have to be factor if the Eagles want to be Super Bowl champs and he showed that by catching 6-of-8 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship. Brown can’t be stopped if he doesn’t want to be, and I expect the Chiefs to make slowing down Saquon Barkley a priority.
Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers)
Saquon Barkley Super Bowl MVP
If you believe the Eagles can pull off the upset (+105 on Moneyline), this is the route I love to go. It gives you way more value, and let’s be real, Philadelphia isn’t hoisting the Lombardi unless the Saquon magic continues. While Super Bowl MVP can be a quarterback-heavy award, nobody watches the Eagles and comes away thinking their excellence is from Jalen Hurts. Saquon has been the story of the season - now watch him finish it with an exclamation point.
Enjoy the game, the parties, the commercials, and here’s hoping you cash a few tickets along the way.
