The last 14 weeks of the 2025 NFL season have led to this moment as the fantasy football playoffs are officially in full swing. After months of grinding the data, playing the best plays, and overanalyzing every decision, we can ill afford to come up short now.
Knowing what’s at stake, I sat down and took a look at the remaining schedules and matchups to get a gauge on who we can and cannot trust the most at such a pivotal time of year.
Let’s dive into some who stood out to me as trustworthy starts, and those I am weary of during this final stretch.
🟢 ⬆️ High Confidence
Harold Fannin (@CHI, vs. BUF, vs. PIT)
David Njoku was bounced from Week 14’s loss with a knee injury and could be at risk of missing Week 15’s game against the Bears. Even if he is active, in the last three games with Shedeur Sanders under center, Harold Fannin ranks third among tight ends in targets (22), second in receiving yards (197), and has scored twice. Njoku, on the other hand, has seen just three targets in his last three games. Among 20 tight ends with 15 or more targets over that span, Fannin’s 0.259 targets per route run ranks fifth highest. Fannin is the Browns’ No. 1 receiving threat in the passing game and has 10 more targets than Jerry Jeudy since Week 12. If there was any doubt, he’s a must-start for the fantasy playoff stretch.
SHEDEUR TO FANNIN. WOW
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
TENvsCLE on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/UujURrsI0j
Chris Olave (vs. CAR, vs. NYJ, @TENN)
Since Tyler Shough made his first career start in Week 9 against the Rams, Chris Olave has been the beneficiary of 7.4 targets per game and a 25 percent target share that rivals the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Zay Flowers, and CeeDee Lamb. Olave has turned those targets into a 24-308-2 receiving line and has three top-24 PPR finishes in his last five games. Where things stand right now, Saints receivers draw the ninth-easiest fantasy playoff schedule at the position, and benefit from playing Weeks 15 and 16 at home in the Superdome. The Saints are averaging 34.6 dropbacks per game with Shough under center. Olave should be a reliable WR2 over these final three weeks with plenty of upside to sneak into the top-12 any given week.
Bucky Irving (vs. ATL, @CAR, @MIA)
In his two games back since suffering a foot injury in Week 4, Irving has finished as the RB15 and RB12 in PPR leagues. Both games have been buoyed with a touchdown, but the Buccaneers’ RB1 has averaged 18.0 opportunities/gm in his last two outings and draws the fifth-easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Irving’s 36 opportunities since Week 13 are double that of Rachaad White (18), while Sean Tucker has been on the outside looking in with nine opportunities. Irving is still dealing with a shoulder injury, which he picked up during his time away, but the Bucs aren’t leaving any confusion as to who their top back is.
Terry McLaurin (@NYG, vs. PHI, vs. DAL)
The 3-10 Commanders draw a lousy defense in Week 15, and two teams that should beat them handily in Weeks 16 and 17. Since returning in Week 13, McLaurin has been targeted on 34 percent of his routes — the fifth-highest total among WRs over that span (min. 10 targets) and has seen 18 targets over the span. Safety blanket Zach Ertz (knee), who is second on the team with 72 targets, is out for the season, which could also free up more looks for McLaurin in an offense that boasts a 58 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 10. Jayden Daniels (elbow) has already been ruled out for Week 15, but if he were to return in Weeks 16 or 17, McLaurin’s fantasy stock would get a slight boost.
TreVeyon Henderson (vs. BUF, @BAL, @NYJ)
The Patriots draw the easiest schedule for fantasy running backs during the fantasy playoffs, which starts with a Week 15 matchup against a Bills run defense that’s allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and fourth-highest yards per carry this season. The 19 touchdowns Buffalo has allowed on the ground are the most in the league. Henderson again finds himself in a backfield split with Rhamondre Stevenson, who returned from injury in Week 12. Since Stevenson’s return, however, Henderson has earned 37 opportunities to Stevenson’s 23 and out-snapped him nine to five inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.
🟡 ➡️ Medium Confidence
Matthew Stafford (vs. DET, @SEA, @ ATL)
Stafford and the Rams play two of their next three games indoors and get the first and second-highest scoring offenses in the league in Weeks 15 and 16. In Week 17, they get a Falcons defense that has twice been torched by Bryce Young this season. One of the few true pocket QBs still in the league, Stafford, in his age-37 season, has put together an MVP-caliber campaign and has two of the top pass-catchers in the game in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at his disposal. A Week 16 matchup against the Seahawks is barely keeping him out of the high-confidence range. Stafford had his second-worst fantasy performance of the season in Week 11 at home against the Seahawks’ No. 2-ranked defense, and he has to go on the road to face them in Week 16.
Jaxson Dart (vs. WSH, vs. MIN, @LV)
The Giants draw the 11th-easiest fantasy matchups for QBs during the fantasy playoffs, with a Week 16 game against the Vikings throwing a wrench into things. A Week 15 matchup against a porous Commanders defense that made J.J. McCarthy look like Fran Tarkenton, and a Week 17 dome matchup against the Raiders are both juicy plays for the rookie QB. Injury concerns aside, Dart has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in four of his eight starts, finishing in the top-five among QBs in three of those games. His strong rushing floor (61-337-7) could still put him in the top-12 even against a stout Vikings defense, but Dart being on several championship rosters by season’s end would not be surprising.
Justin Jefferson (@DAL, @NYG, vs. DET)
If you told me you didn’t want to start Justin Jefferson in fantasy for the rest of the season, you’d be perfectly justified in doing so. He’s managed a measly 15 receiving yards over the last two weeks, which includes an 11-yard performance in Week 14 when J.J. McCarthy had far and away the best start of his career. Jefferson hasn’t found the end zone since Week 9, and he hasn’t gone for more than 61 receiving yards since Week 8. His last top-12 PPR finish came in Week 5. It’s been brutal. Talent alone makes Jefferson a near must-start, and he’d easily be on the low-confidence list were it not for this upcoming three-week stretch that’s good for the seventh-easiest schedule for fantasy receivers. Something has to give for Jefferson between now and the end of the season, even if the best he can offer is a few top-24 PPR performances.
Devin Neal (vs. CAR, vs. NYJ, @TENN)
This one is contingent on whether or not Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) returns at some point in the next three weeks, but since Kamara went down in Week 12, Neal has seen 51 opportunities while the rest of the Saints’ backfield has combined for 10. The rookie sixth-rounder has totaled 214 yards from scrimmage, nine receptions, and one touchdown over that span, and now draws the second-easiest schedule for running backs over the next three weeks. Fantasy football is a numbers game, and Neal’s 28 percent opportunity share over that span is higher than that of De’Von Achane (27 percent), Kyren Williams (25 percent), and D’Andre Swift (24 percent), to name a few. Far from the hottest name in fantasy, the schedule and opportunities make Neal an intriguing play for anybody in a pinch.
Jauan Jennings (vs. TENN, @IND, vs. CHI)
Jauan Jennings is the WR41 in fantasy points per game this season, but has finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in three of his last four games while posting a 19-205-3 line on 28 targets. Brock Purdy is back under center, and the multiple injuries that plagued Jennings early in the season appear to be behind him, as he hasn’t been listed on the team’s injury report since Week 10. The Niners are coming off a bye and have the easiest fantasy schedule for wide receivers over the next three weeks. Most fantasy receivers would be must-starts with this upcoming schedule, but Jennings hasn’t exactly established himself as a reliable fantasy receiver in 2025. That said, things appear to be trending up for him at the right time for fantasy managers in need of a WR2 with plenty of upside.
🔴 ⬇️ Low Confidence
Caleb Williams (vs. CLE, vs. GB, @ SF)
It’s still shocking to see that Caleb Williams, who ranks 11th in passing yards (2,908) and 12th in passing touchdowns (19), is the QB9 in fantasy points per game this season. Although some are saying that games against the Bengals, Giants, Steelers, and Cowboys will help. The Bears kick off the fantasy playoffs against two stout defenses, including a Green Bay defense that just held him to a QB16 finish in Week 14. Williams’ rushing upside (65-321-3) has made him a dual-threat for fantasy purposes, but his inconsistent play at times as a passer could prove costly over the next few weeks. Since Week 9, Williams ranks 21st among 24 QBs (min. 150) plays in completion percent over expected (-5.7 percent) and 23rd in overall completion percent. Those same numbers over the course of the full season top only Trevor Lawrence, while his 44.1 percent success rate ranks at the bottom-six in the league. Things get a bit easier for Williams in Week 17 against the Niners, but games against the Browns and Packers could sink fantasy managers before they get there.
Ashton Jeanty (@PHI, @HOU, vs. NYG)
It’s been a disappointing rookie season for Jeanty, whose 191-665-4 line (3.5 YPC) isn’t what fantasy managers envisioned while drafting him in the late-first round of fantasy drafts. As far as volume is concerned, Jeanty has been as advertised. The Boise State product ranks eighth in total opportunities (248) among running backs and has a 37 percent opportunity share that trails only Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and De’Von Achane. That said, his -18.6 fantasy points over expected rank 146th out of 147 backs, and kicks off the fantasy playoffs with two tough road matches against the Eagles and Texans. Volume may not be enough to justify starting Jeanty in Weeks 15 or 16. He’s fresh off an RB39 finish in Week 14 against the Broncos and has finished higher than RB24 just once in his last three games.
Hunter Henry (vs. BUF, @BAL, @NYJ)
Henry is putting together his best season (45-610-5) as a pro and is currently the TE13 in fantasy points per game. With this in mind, the Patriots draw the toughest matchup for tight ends over the next three weeks, and he has had only three top-12 finishes in the 13 games he’s played this season. He’s had only one top-12 finish since Week 5, making him far from a must-start despite decent production on the year. At the time this is being written, the Patriots also face two teams with losing records in Weeks 16 and 17, and throw at a 51 percent rate when leading by three or more points. The tough matchups, coupled with the potential for a lot of positive game script in 2-of-3 games, are unlikely to bode well for Henry’s upside in such pivotal matchups.
Tetairoa McMillan (@NO, vs. TB, vs. SEA)
Panthers receivers draw the toughest fantasy playoff schedule that starts with a road matchup against the Saints and ends with a home game against a stout Seahawks defense. McMillan, who currently ranks as the WR19 in fantasy points per game, has gone through a rough stretch as of late, finishing as the PPR WR28 or worse in four of his last five games. He’s caught just 3-of-10 targets in his last two games for 78 yards, but managed to bail out his fantasy managers with a touchdown in each of those weeks. Despite ranking 14th among all receivers in targets (98) this season, McMillan has just four top-24 PPR finishes. With a brutal slate of games ahead of him, he could be better suited for the bench outside of deeper leagues.
Jaylen Warren (vs. MIA, @DET, @CLE)
Warren has just two top-12 PPR finishes this season, and his last came in Week 9 against the Colts. His highest PPR finish since Week 10 was an RB16 finish, and he’s found himself in a split with Kenneth Gainwell, who has finished as a top-12 PPR back in three of his last four games. The Steelers have the sixth-hardest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs and close out the last two weeks with road games against the Lions and Browns, who both rank in the top six in YPC allowed this season. Warren’s 194 opportunities this season rank 21st among all running backs, but his lack of work in the passing game (2.2 tgts/gm since Week 9) makes him a fairly touchdown-dependent option. Touchdowns have always been hard for Warren to come by (12 TDs in 60 career games), and they could prove all the more difficult with a tough defensive schedule to close out the season.
NOTE: All player rankings are based on PPR scoring. Playoff schedule rankings courtesy of the RotoViz Strength of Schedule Streaming App.
