After exceeding expectations by advancing all the way to the NFC Championship game in 2024, the Commanders bumbled their way to a 5-12 season that was headlined by the multiple injuries to Jayden Daniels. Without their franchise quarterback to lead the way, the Commanders saw their offense finish near the bottom in points per game (20.9), and their defense allowed the sixth-most points per game (26.5) while surrendering the most yards per game (384.3) of any team in the league. After shaking up the coaching staff and making some key additions in free agency and the draft, head coach Dan Quinn is hoping to put his team back in the playoff hunt in 2026.
▶ 2025 Washington Commanders Stats (Rank)
- Points per game: 20.9 (22nd)
- Total yards per game: 338.8 (22nd)
- Plays per game: 58.2 (27th)
- Dropbacks per game: 36.7 (26th)
- Dropback EPA per play: 0.08 (16th)
- Designed rush attempts per game: 25.4 (19th)
- Rush EPA per play: -0.04 (11th)
▶ First-year OC David Blough plans to revamp offense
The Kliff Kingsbury experiment lasted two seasons for the Commanders. Last year’s offensive collapse, while partly due to injuries to Daniels, could also be blamed on stale offensive concepts and a predictable scheme. We’ve heard it all before. Now, the Commanders are hoping the pivot to first-year OC David Blough can breathe fresh life into the offense. Blough is expected to add some new elements to the team’s offensive attack, with the most notable being the decision to move Daniels under center. How Daniels adapts to the change will be something to monitor both in training camp and throughout the season. Dating back to his time at Arizona State, Daniels, per TruMedia, has played 92.7 percent of his snaps from shotgun. The move to a more under-center approach may take some time to adjust to, but will also allow the team to implement a heavier play-action scheme, which ESPN’s John Keim reports is also in the plans.
▶ Passing Game
QB: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota
WR: Terry McLaurin, Treylon Burks
WR: Antonio Williams, Dyami Brown
WR: Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane
TE: Chig Okonkwo, John Bates
The injury bug bit Jayden Daniels in a big way last season. After playing in all 17 games as a rookie, Daniels was limited to just seven games last season due to a knee sprain, a hamstring strain, and a dislocated left elbow. When he was healthy, Daniels looked like a player who had noticeably regressed from his previous season.
Daniels’ noticeable decline in both completion percentage and adjusted completion percentage isn’t all too surprising given the throws he was missing. After completing 62.1 percent of his intermediate throws (10-19 air yards) as a rookie, Daniels’ completion percentage on those same passes fell to 43.2 percent. Among 29 QBs with at least 300 dropbacks last season, that would have been 27th. On his deep attempts (20-plus air yards), Daniels’ completion percentage ranked among the best QBs at 55.6 percent, but the “easy stuff” gave him trouble and often resulted in drives stalling out in pivotal moments. Daniels’ 50.8 completion percentage on third and fourth downs last season would have ranked 28th among the same group of previously mentioned QBs.
Fantasy points are hard to come by when your offense isn’t on the field, which explains why Daniels, despite his 58-278-2 rushing line in limited action, had only one top-12 fantasy finish last season after posting 12 QB1 performances in 2024. However, he’s also one of the few true Konami Code QBs in the game, and Daniels’ rushing upside, on top of what we expect to be a bounce-back season for him as a passer in 2026, is what keeps him in the conversation as a high-end QB1. Since entering the league in 2024, Daniels’ 8.6 rush attempts per game and 48.7 rushing yards per game lead all players at the position. His propensity to scramble also bodes well for fantasy scoring, assuming he can stay out of harm’s way. His 12.5 percent scramble rate in 2024 and 15.7 percent scramble rate in 2025 led the league in both seasons, and his 24.3 percent scramble rate when pressured over that span is nearly six points higher than the next closest QB (Jaxson Dart, 16.4 percent). Since 2016, QBs who averaged at least 7.0 rush attempts per game (min. 14 games) have averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game, which would have tied Drake Maye for the QB3 in fantasy PPG last season. The best ability is availability, and if Daniels can stay on the field, there’s no reason to believe he can’t achieve a top-five fantasy season or better at the position.
Daniels’ No. 1 pass-catching target, Terry McLaurin, is also hoping for a bounce-back campaign. An extended holdout for a new contract last offseason resulted in a three-year, $97 million contract extension for McLaurin, who followed that up with a slow three-week start (10-149-0 on 17 targets), and wound up missing seven games due to injury. He would eventually return and close out the season with a 38-582-3 line, but fantasy managers who were hoping to see him replicate his 2024 campaign in which he caught 82 passes for 1,096 yards while scoring a career-high 13 touchdowns were sorely disappointed. The Commanders could eventually bring in a notable receiver (Brandon Aiyuk? Stefon Diggs?) to threaten McLaurin’s workload, but he should remain the top receiver for the Commanders this season.
At this point, we know what we get when it comes to a player like McLaurin. When he’s at his best, he is consistently putting up 1,000-yard seasons while hovering somewhere in the range of 120 to 130 targets. While they are far from true alpha numbers, McLaurin was consistently turning in respectable top-36 fantasy production in PPR leagues on a per-game basis from 2020 to 2023, and has produced as a top-24 WR in 59 percent of his games played since 2024. He’s more of a solid floor/low-ceiling player, but that’s just fine for a guy who is going in the same range as D.J. Moore, Mike Evans, and Rome Odunze in Yahoo leagues.
Behind McLaurin is an unproven cast of characters. Third-year receiver Luke McCaffrey has totaled 29 receptions for 371 yards and three touchdowns in 26 career games and has been used primarily as a backup. The former No. 100 overall pick out of Rice entered the league as an unpolished receiver after spending the first three years of his college career as a QB, and has run 20 or more routes in just five career games. He’ll likely see most of his work on the outside this season, while rookie third-rounder, Antonio Williams, occupies the slot.
Williams played 77.2 percent of his college snaps from the slot during his time with Clemson, and produced three seasons of 600-plus yards, topping out at 75-904-11 in 2024. He brings four solid years of production to the pro level and is known for his production after the catch. He’s expected to step into an immediate role for the Commanders this season, but fantasy managers should temper expectations for both McCaffrey and Williams out of the gate, as neither should be on draft boards to start the year.
Perhaps the biggest addition to the Commanders’ offense this season is former Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo, who joined the team on a three-year, $27 million contract. Okonkwo leaves a dreadful situation in Tennessee and now has the chance to play with the best quarterback of his young career in Daniels. Okonkwo totaled 450 receiving yards or more in each of his four seasons with the Titans. Respectable totals, but all numbers that could be improved on with an increased role.
Last season, Okonkwo earned 79 targets, which marked a career-high but still finished as 14th-most among his position. His 19.8 percent targeted route rate ranks 17th among 65 TEs since 2022 (min. 500 total routes), but his 5.7 YAC/REC ranks among the top players at the position. During the Dan Quinn era, the Commanders have ranked 22nd in targets per game to TEs (6.3), but upgrading from Zach Ertz to Okonkwo could lead to more targets being funneled in his direction. Fantasy managers avoiding the TE position early in drafts would be wise to take a shot on Okonkwo, who should provide a safe enough floor to be worth starting, and could possess enough upside to sneak in the conversation as a top-12 player at his position.
▶ Running Game
RB: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White, Kaytron Allen, Jeremy McNichols
OL (L-R): Laremy Tunsil, Chris Paul, Nick Allegretti, Sam Cosmi, Josh Conerly Jr.
Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt made the Commanders as a rookie seventh-rounder last season and forced the team to trade Brian Robinson to the 49ers during training camp when it became apparent that JCM had carved out a role for himself. Croskey-Merritt wound up leading the Commanders in all major rushing categories (175-805-8) and ranked sixth in YCO/ATT (3.50) and 15th in missed tackles forced rate (19.4 percent) among 33 RBs with at least 150 rush attempts last season. Despite solid production overall, he never saw the volume to serve as a reliable fantasy asset. Of the 17 games he appeared in, Croskey-Merritt had eight games in which he saw fewer than 10 rush attempts, and he had a non-existent role in the passing game, never surpassing more than two targets in any game last season. While there’s some belief he could see increased work in the passing game this season, he faces added competition in the form of Rachaad White, who signed a one-year deal with the Commanders this offseason. ESPN’s John Keim reported earlier this summer that the Commanders are “likely” to enter the season with a running back by committee situation, which means JCM shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a RB3/RB4 for the time being.
Rachaad White’s one-year, $2 million contract suggests the team won’t be looking to force any touches his way. White has enjoyed a productive four-year career thus far, amassing over 2,600 rushing yards and 14 scores while adding another 205-1,450-11 through the air. His efficiency as a pass-catcher far outweighs his efficiency as a runner, and should give him the inside edge over Bill on third downs and passing-down plays entering the season. If you look strictly at what White has offered fantasy managers as a pass-catcher, his 415 fantasy points on passing plays rank fourth highest among all RBs since 2022 (min. 100 targets), while his 1.8 fantasy points per target is tied for second-highest with Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry, and James Cook.
Both Croskey-Merritt and White could have standalone value this season, but should either go down, the other could stand to benefit in a big way.
Rookie sixth-rounder Kaytron Allen left Penn State as the all-time leading rusher (4,180) in the program’s history and will have to battle for a roster spot with veteran Jeremy McNichols in training camp. Whether it’s Allen or McNichols who gets the nod as the team’s RB3, it would take a lot for either to become fantasy viable at any point in the season.
▶ 2026 Washington Commanders Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 7.5
Pick: Over (-125)
The Commanders face one of the toughest schedules in football this season. According to Sharp Football Analysis, based on Vegas’ forecasted win totals by opponent, the Commanders have the eighth-toughest schedule this season. As if that’s not bad enough, they get back-to-back games on the road against the Eagles and Cowboys and then make their home opener in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Daniels being healthy is key to getting over last year’s five-win season, but Dan Quinn and company need to show they built a defense that can finish better than last year’s 27th-ranked unit. While key additions like rookie LB Sonny Styles and pass-rusher Odafe Oweh should go a long way in turning things around, I’ll take the under here. There’s just a bit too much uncertainty around this team for me to feel confident in an eight-plus win season.
