The Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament is finally locked, and we are set for a wild week in Minneapolis.
The action gets started on Peacock Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. EST, when No. 12 seed Purdue plays No. 13 seed Northwestern followed by a matchup between No. 11 seed Minnesota and No. 14 seed Rutgers. Before we get to the seedings for the projected NCAA Tournament teams in the field, let’s examine those two first-round matchups to see which of the four teams has the best chance at making a surprise run.
Given that Purdue demolished Northwestern 74-48 in Evanston less than a month ago, I like the Boilermakers to take that matchup. Minnesota has been a much better team than Rutgers this season, but has lost 10 of its last 11, struggling mightily without Mara Braun. Neither team seems like much of a threat to beat Michigan in Round 2.
The Boilermakers, meanwhile, encouraged in pushing a desperate Wolverines team to the brink in the regular season finale. Plus, their path would avoid the Ohio State-Iowa-Indiana triumvirate until Saturday’s semifinals. It’s still a longshot, but if you want to root for a Round 1 team to go on a shocking streak, Purdue is your best bet.
Onto the teams that don’t have to win the conference tournament to make the Big Dance:
Ohio State: 1-seed
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 8 Maryland/No. 9 Illinois
The No. 4 Buckeyes secured their 17th regular season Big Ten title when they took down hated rival Michigan on Wednesday, so Sunday’s matchup with Iowa was purely about pride – and, of course, any potential mental or schematic advantage that could be gleaned for a potential rematch. Ohio State lost that game, but it’s hardly damaging to their reputation. The Buckeyes are solid title contenders.
Iowa: 2-seed
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 7 Penn State/No. 10 Wisconsin
The No. 3 Hawkeyes took down the Buckeyes 93-83 to close the season on a high note. Over its final 14 games, Iowa averaged 96.7 points per game. Led by the new all-time leading NCAA scorer Caitlin Clark, this offense is just so dangerous, and Sunday’s victory was a great example. Molly Davis’ injury is potentially a huge blow to this team’s title chances, but any team that can put up 93 on the Buckeyes is going to have a shot.
Indiana: 3-seed
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 6 Michigan/No. 11 Minnesota/No. 14 Rutgers
After their out-of-character loss to Illinois on Feb. 19, No. 12 Indiana closed with three wins by an average margin of victory of 18, including wins over two teams on this list in Iowa and Maryland. Mackenzie Holmes and Sara Scalia are one of the more formidable duos in the country, and Indiana seems destined for a rubber match against Iowa in the Big Ten semifinals, which could determine which of the two gets a higher NCAA Tournament seed.
Michigan State: 7-seed
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 5 Nebraska/No. 12 Purdue/No. 13 Northwestern
The conference will most likely be won by one of the top three teams, but don’t be shocked if the Spartans put a scare in at least one of them. Over its five-game win streak to close the season, Michigan State proved it is still capable of putting up big point totals (86 PPG in their last three contests) while also improving its defensive focus (60.8 PPG allowed during the win streak).
Nebraska: 8-seed
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 12 Purdue/No. 13 Northwestern
Losing at Illinois by one point on the final day of the regular season to miss out on the double bye has to hurt, especially when the Cornhuskers had so many chances in the final seconds. Still, Nebraska feels locked into the NCAA Tournament field regardless of their performance in Minneapolis, and could cause some issues for more of the finesse-based teams above them.
Michigan: 10-seed
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 11 Minnesota/No. 14 Rutgers
The Wolverines’ loss at Ohio State was not unexpected, but it did set up a finale against Purdue that felt a little do-or-die. It looked like Michigan might damage its resume with an ugly loss to a non-tournament team, but the Wolverines pulled out the win on the back of Cameron Williams’ 18 points on 9-of-13 shooting. Michigan probably doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the Big Ten’s best, but they’ll make teams work to beat them.
Maryland: 10-seed
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 9 Illinois
The Terrapins fill a classic archetype: The team that beats bad opponents but can’t beat good ones. Maryland is 0-9 against teams ranked 1-25 by NET and 17-3 against all other teams. The top four teams all rank inside the top 25, so Maryland likely maxes out with one win and a quarterfinal loss to Ohio State. If they look good doing it, though, that should be enough to make the NCAA Tournament.
Penn State: 11-seed (First Four)
First Big Ten Tournament matchup: No. 10 Wisconsin
The Nittany Lions narrowly avoided going winless in November by beating Purdue by five on Wednesday. How does a team that shaky finish out the regular season? By beating Minnesota by 56 of course! If Penn State beats Wisconsin they get Iowa in the quarterfinal, and I can think of worse ways to spend a couple hours than watching two potent offenses go head-to-head. There’s a solid chance the Nittany Lions will be fighting for their NCAA Tournament spot in that game, too.
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