Cleveland Guardians
2024 record: 92-69
First place, AL Central
Team ERA: 3.61 (3rd in MLB)
Team OPS: .703 (17th in MLB)
What Went Right
The Guardians disappointed in 2023, but were able to bounce back quite nicely with a division championship and a trip to the ALCS. A large reason — large seems like an understatement — for that was another stellar season from the ever so underappreciated Jose Ramirez; who came a homer away from joining the 40-40 club while driving in 118 runs for the Cleveland offense. Josh Naylor also reached the 30 homer club for the first time while adding 108 RBI as well, and his 58 walks were easily a career high for good measure. The Guardians also got solid offensive seasons from David Fry (.804 OPS) and Steven Kwan (.292 average, .793 OPS) to make this offense a middle-of-the-pack group. And the middle of the pack was plenty good enough thanks to the Cleveland pitching staff; and in particular this bullpen. Emmanuel Clase had his struggles in the postseason, but was spectacular in the regular campaign with 47 saves and a miniscule 0.61 ERA. The bridges to him were fantastic as well with Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin also posting an ERA below 2.00 with a few others contributing to the group as well. The starters weren’t as good -- that’s more compliment to the names above than insult to the rotation -- but Tanner Bibee was strong at the top of that group with a 3.47 ERA and 187 strikeouts against 44 walks, and Matthew Boyd along with Ben Lively both did solid work to keep Cleveland in games.
What Went Wrong
There were several close games in the ALCS, but the Guardians ultimately fell to the Yankees in that series in large part because that bullpen couldn’t quite hold up in the series; in particular Clase who gave up multiple runs in two games. As for the regular season, the offense was top-heavy, and no other Cleveland hitter who had more than 300 at-bats posted an OPS above .700. Andres Gimenez particularly struggled with a .252/.298/.340 slash; with his only saving grace from a fantasy perspective being his 30 stolen bases. The starters not being as good as the bullpen is again a large compliment to the bullpen, but also partially due to the health of the rotation. Shane Bieber made just two starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Gavin Williams missed the beginning of the year, and never seemed to truly find his footing with a 4.86 ERA over 16 starts and 76 innings of work. Triston McKenzie actually did stay healthy, but he was ineffective before being sent down to the minors with a 1.56 WHIP and 5.11 ERA. Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco, Joey Cantillo and Alex Cobb -- among others -- showed quality at times, but this was a mediocre group for the majority of 2024.
Fantasy Slants
- Kwan’s overall numbers are solid, but it’s worth pointing out how much better they were prior to the final two months of the season. He was hitting .332 heading into August, but a .207 average in August followed by a .195 mark in September saw that number drop considerably. He was as good if not better than anyone in baseball in avoiding strikeouts, but he was also as bad as anyone at making hard contact and barreling the baseball. Kwan’s ability to put the ball in play is wonderful and he should be good for around 15-20 steals as long as he stays healthy, but you’ll have to take some low points to go with the highs.
- Bo Naylor got a chance to be the full-time catcher in 2024, and things did not go as well for little bro as they did for Josh. He hit .201 with a .614 OPS, and he struck out 122 times in 364 at-bats. He did hit 13 homers, and his barrel rate along with his chase rate were above-average figures. There’s still long-term upside for Naylor to be a strong fantasy catching option, but he’s got just as much risk as he does reward at this stage of his career.
- Kyle Manzardo made his MLB debut in 2024, and his first stint with the club saw him disappoint with a .571 OPS over his first 30 games before being optioned back to Columbus. He got another chance in September and showed vast improvement with an .873 mark; and he was a part of the lineup against right-handers in the postseason. Manzardo has solid power, a strong approach at the plate, and should make just enough hard contact to be more contributor than detriment in the average category. Being limited to first base also limits the fantasy value, but there’s enough here to believe he has a shot to be a solid option in 2025 and beyond.
- McKenzie was one of the best young hurlers in baseball in 2022 with a 2.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 190 strikeouts in just-over 191 innings. Two years later he was one of the least effective options before he was sent down, and the advanced stats are unkind. He walked 14.4 percent of the hitters he faced, gave up a barrel rate of 13 percent when he wasn’t issuing free passes, and hitters slugged a whopping .652 against his four-seam fastball. Is it possible McKenzie finds his form and gives you a semblance of the 2022 version? Sure, it’s just very hard to bet on it given how often he got rocked in 2024. Take a wait-and-see approach.
- Most of Cleveland’s top prospects are in the lower levels, but one player that could help the Guardians and potentially fantasy players is Chase DeLaughter. DeLaughter was a first-round pick in 2022, and while he battled injuries in 2024 -- as well as 2023 -- he was effective with an .841 OPS and eight homers over 39 games. He was particularly good once he reached Triple-A with a slash of .304/.407/.739, but that’s a sample of just six games. Still, DeLaughter has the tools to hit for both average and power; enough so to make up for the fact he won’t make an impact on the bases. He’s someone to monitor in redraft leagues on a team that is not exactly loaded with outfield options going into 2025.
Key Free Agents
Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb, Austin Hedges, James Karinchak
Team Needs
The Guardians will have to address the starting pitching market even if they have faith in rebounds from McKenzie and Williams and/or belief in young starters like Joey Cantillo and Logan Allen. The infield appears to be set, but they could certainly use an upgrade or two in the outfield even with Lane Thomas acquired at the deadline. The current roster is certainly good enough for Cleveland to be a playoff contender in 2025, but they will need to add some pop to the lineup and help at the top of the starting group if they’re going to compete for a World Series.
