Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I do watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades.
Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.
As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.
At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Buy The Dip
As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills
With James Cook out in Week 6, Bills rookie running back Ray Davis had a great game on national television against the Jets. That led to calls for him to be the team’s lead back considering many people felt he fit the team’s downhill running style better. Davis then also took five carries for 41 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 while Cook was limited to 32 rushing yards on 12 carries and saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. But I think the emergence of Davis and questions about Cook’s ability to be a feature back create a buy of a buying opportunity. Cook still played on 54% of the team’s snaps in Week 8, took 63% of the rushes, and ran a route on 46% of dropbacks. He just didn’t get targeted and also rushed into a stout Titans defense that allows just 3.9 yards per carry, which is 4th-best in the NFL.
Darnell Mooney - WR, Atlanta Falcons
I’ve had Mooney on here a few times this season due to his prominent role in the Falcons’ passing attack, but because of his inconsistent production of late and his prior history of burning fantasy managers when he was in Chicago, you’re starting to see a lot of people give up on Mooney. Three weeks ago he had a huge game on national TV, but he has averaged 6.2 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats over the last two weeks and is being traded in leagues for players like Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid, and Jerry Jeudy so now is the time to buy back in.
Mooney has never had a route participation rate lower than 93% this season. He has never had a target share under 15% and has been under 20% just twice all season. His catchable target rate sits at a solid 70%, so he’s on the field often, seeing a good amount of targets, and seeing a high percentage of catchable targets. We love all of that. He’s not going to be the receiver we saw in Week 5, but I think he is a solid WR3 for your fantasy team who has a good chance to put up big weeks in plus matchups. That’s a great player to have as a bye-week fill-in or injury replacement.
Deebo Samuel - WR, San Francisco 49ers
I’m not sure you can trade for Deebo now that Aiyuk is done for the season, but considering that Deebo is also currently in the hospital battling pneumonia and he’s averaged just 7.6 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues over the last month, there might be a manager in your league who could be convinced to move on. You’re not going to get Deebo cheap, but you may have an opportunity to acquire him now before he explodes, as he always does with Aiyuk is out. As Dwain McFarland mentioned over on Fantasy Life, in games where Aiyuk has been out since 2021, Deebo averages a 38% target share, 41% of the team’s air yards, and 4.88 yards per route run. Those are all elite marks, and Deebo should be considered a rock-solid WR1 for the rest of the season, but I’m not sure if he has that level of trust yet from all fantasy managers.
Buy High, Sell Higher
At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just “buying high” because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so it’s a delicate balancing act.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. - RB, New York Giants
We saw Devin Singletary return this week and cut into Tyrone Tracy’s workload, but the good news for Tracy is that he maintained the lead role. Tracy played on 67% if the snaps compared to 22% for Singletary. Tracy also handled 40% of the rushes and ran a route on 68% of dropbacks, compared to 33% rush share for Singletary and 15% route participation. Now, it’s possible Singletary is still working himself back from the groin injury and could take the lead in the rush share from Tracy, but the rookie is still likely to handle at least 1/3 of the team’s overall rushes, and he’s the clear receiving back. Considering the Giants figure to trail often this season, I’d rather have Tracy since he played all the two-minute drill snaps in Week 7. Also, as a feather in his cap, it was Tracy who handled the only short-down-and-distance snaps last week too, so his role is bigger than some people might think, and he’s on the RB2/3 border right now.
David Njoku - TE, Cleveland Browns
Last week, I had Njoku listed as a “buy low” and since he went off for 76 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches, I’m going to put him here in the buy high section because I think you need to trade for him before he does it again. Last week I said, “I’ll put Njoku here because after the Browns traded Amari Cooper to the Bills, I think you want to snag Njoku if you can. The tight end is averaging just 6.3 fantasy points per game in PPR formats this year and Deshaun Watson has been arguably the worst quarterback in football, so there is a chance that the fantasy manager in your league is just done with Njoku. It’s understandable, and I know buying Njoku also feels gross but he saw solid usage on Sunday with a 67% route participation rate and 32% of the Browns’ targets. It didn’t amount to much, but you have to imagine both of those numbers are going to tick up with Cooper out of town and Njoku continuing to get healthier.” With Deshaun Watson also now out for the season, and the Browns turning things over to Jameis Winston, who threw the touchdown pass to Njoku on Sunday, the tight end feels like a locked-in TE1 for the rest of the season.
Buy a Call
When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price - a strike price - if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.
Ladd McConkey - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
You’re not going to get Ladd McConkey for nothing because he’s a rookie with name value, but I think you can acquire him now before we see the true boost in his fantasy value. McConkey had a solid performance in Week 4, but he has only scored more than nine fantasy points in PPR scoring twice all season. That means whoever has him on their team is finding it really hard to put him in their lineup. A big reason for that is that the Chargers don’t want to pass the ball, so even though McConkey has a 25% target share on the season, that’s roughly six targets a game and about 4.5 catchable targets per game. I’m not sure those numbers are going to skyrocket in the next three weeks against the Saints, Browns, and Titans because I think those are games the Chargers should be able to control and use their ground game. However, starting in Week 11, the Chargers get a stretch where they play the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and Bucs. I expect those to be games where the Chargers will need to air it out against some vulnerable secondaries, and the rookie could have some huge games. Just keep and eye on buying opportunities for McConkey over the next few weeks.
Jordan Whittington - WR, Los Angeles Rams
This is more of a deeper league play, but I think people are ready to turn the page on many of the Rams wide receivers with Cooper Kupp back this week and Puka Nacua starting to practice. Whittington also tried to play through a shoulder injury last week and didn’t really get on the field at all, so I think many assume this fantasy relevance is done. However, there are also trade rumors circulating around Cooper Kupp, and somebody will need to start alongside Nacua if Kupp gets traded. In Weeks 4 and 5, before the Rams’ bye, Whittington had emerged as the top receiver in Los Angeles, running a route on 90% of routes in those two games, while seeing a 25% target share and 23% of the team’s air yards. He also averaged 14.1 PPR points in full-PPR scoring. I think he’s a more talented receiver than Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell and would be more intriguing for a rebuilding Rams team than giving those veterans more work. If you’re in a deeper format and can add Whittington to your bench as we wait out the Kupp rumors, that’s a move that could prove beneficial in the long run.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Run a Process
If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.
Kareem Hunt - RB, Kansas City Chiefs
The fantasy managers in your league may not believe in Hunt, but it’s worth checking because he is getting elite usage on the Chiefs, and that usually excites fantasy managers. Without Rashee Rice, the Chiefs have gone far more run-heavy, and Hunt has played on 63% of the team’s snaps over the last two games, with 70% of the team’s rushed and also run a route on almost 50% of dropbacks. That led to just under 20 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. However, I just don’t buy it. Hunt hasn’t looked good for a few seasons, and I’m not sure he’s found a fountain of youth at 29 years old. He’s forcing many missed tackles, not gaining many yards after contact, and is consistently failing to break big runs. Combine that with the potential returns of one or both of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco in the coming weeks, and I’d be willing to take what I can get for Hunt now due to my fear that he settles onto the RB2/3 fringe as more of a bye-week FLEX play.
Jordan Mason - RB, San Francisco 49ers
It’s possible fantasy managers have simply held onto Jordan Mason for too long. I tried to acquire him in two leagues a couple of weeks ago and was told by both managers that they viewed Mason as “a season-long starter.” Perhaps that had something to do with Christian McCaffrey’s injury history or with their belief in Mason’s talent, but all indications are that the 49ers expect CMC back in Week 10 after their Week 9 bye. That means Mason could only get one more start for fantasy managers. We have to expect that means Mason will go back to being a strict backup, and the problem is that Mason doesn’t even have a goal line skill set to steal fantasy value when CMC is back since Mason has been one of the least effective running backs inside the five-yard line this season. If you have CMC on your team, you should hold Mason as a handcuff, but if you don’t have CMC, it’s worth seeing what you can get for Mason now. Maybe somebody is in a real bind this week and just wants one week of production from Mason. Maybe you can trade him as insurance to the fantasy manager in your league with CMC. At this point, I would trade Mason for anybody I think could be a useable bye-week or injury replacement for my team in the remaining weeks.
Straight Sell
Another self-explanatory one, but these are players we just want to get off our team. We’re not yet at the point where we’re cutting them, but if we can get anything of value in a trade, we want to move off of these players because we don’t believe in the long-term value at all.
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, Indianapolis Colts
I had Pittman on here a couple of weeks ago, but he’s still rostered in over 90% of Yahoo leagues, so I just wanted to highlight him again. With Anthony Richardson back under center, this Colts passing attack takes a massive step backward from a fantasy perspective. Pittsman’s catchable target rate is 75% with Joe Flacco under center and just 60% with Richardson. Richardson is also completing far fewer passes overall and attempting way fewer. With Jonathan Taylor also coming back, the Colts figure to lean into the run far more going forward, so I’m trying to take what I can get with Pittman.
