Earlier this week, I published my Week 12 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
Week 13 byes: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 12 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Travis Etienne | JAC | 24.2 | -11.6 | 12.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 23.1 | 7.8 | 30.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 20.8 | 5.1 | 25.9 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 20.5 | 17.9 | 38.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 18.5 | 3.2 | 21.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 18.4 | 1.8 | 20.2 |
| James Cook | BUF | 18.2 | -2.2 | 16.0 |
| Devin Singletary | HOU | 17.7 | -4.5 | 13.2 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 17.5 | -7.4 | 10.1 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 17.4 | -5.5 | 11.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | 17.4 | 5.1 | 22.5 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 17.2 | 10.1 | 27.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 16.4 | -5.1 | 11.3 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 16.3 | 4.3 | 20.6 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | 16 | 6.3 | 22.3 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | 14.4 | -1.9 | 12.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 13.9 | -2.5 | 11.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 13.8 | 2.1 | 15.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | 13.4 | 8 | 21.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 13.3 | 7.8 | 21.1 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | 12.5 | -0.6 | 11.9 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | 12.3 | -2.5 | 9.8 |
| James Conner | ARI | 12.1 | -4.9 | 7.2 |
| AJ Dillon | GB | 11.3 | -0.2 | 11.1 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 11.1 | 1.9 | 13.0 |
| Brian Robinson Jr | WAS | 10.9 | -2.5 | 8.4 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | 10.7 | -2.9 | 7.8 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 10.6 | 4.5 | 15.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 10.5 | -1.3 | 9.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 9.7 | -3.5 | 6.2 |
| D’Andre Swift | PHI | 9.6 | -0.2 | 9.4 |
| Miles Sanders | CAR | 9.2 | -6.4 | 2.8 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr | MIA | 9 | 1.3 | 10.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | WAS | 8.6 | -1.9 | 6.7 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | 8.2 | 7.7 | 15.9 |
| Samaje Perine | DEN | 7.9 | 5.7 | 13.6 |
Chuba Hubbard (CAR, 18.4 Expected Points)
Miles Sanders signed a four-year, $25.4 million contract to join the Panthers this offseason. We’re not quite sure how it happened, but it’s gone about as poorly as we expected just one year into his new deal.
Through 10 games, Sanders has 97 rushes for 302 yards and one touchdown (3.1 YPC) and has negative 63 rush yards over expected — the sixth-lowest total among qualified backs per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Sanders’ struggles have left the Panthers with few options, as Chuba Hubbard has emerged to lead the Panthers’ backfield by a significant margin since Week 6.
| Chuba Hubbard Weeks 6-12 | Miles Sanders Weeks 6-12 | |
| Snap Share | 62% | 32% |
| Rush Attempts | 83 | 36 |
| Targets | 18 | 9 |
During this seven-week stretch, Hubbard is averaging only 0.63 fantasy points per touch, but his 74.8 expected points are good for RB24. In last week’s loss to the Titans, Hubbard totaled 92 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 19 touches. His 4.8 yards per touch weren’t impressive, but they were far more effective than the 1.9 YPT Sanders averaged.
Picking between Panthers running backs comes down to identifying the lesser of two evils. At the end of the day, we’re dealing with two inefficient backs on one of the worst offenses in the league. However, Hubbard has offered more upside on a per-touch basis and has the targets to give him a higher ceiling in Week 13 against the Buccaneers.
Jaylen Warren (PIT, 10.5 Expected Points)
The Steelers’ switch from offensive coordinator Matt Canada to Eddie Faulker was rumored to bring more opportunities for Jaylen Warren.
It sounded great in theory, but the reality was far different. Warren saw a solid 16 opportunities in Week 12 against the Bengals, which he turned into 62 scoreless yards. It’s the exact kind of volume we’d like to see, but Najee Harris continued to remain a thorn in the side of Warren’s fantasy managers.
While Harris didn’t see a target on the afternoon, his 15 rush attempts are enough to keep him firmly on the fantasy radar entering Week 13 against the Cardinals. Harris also had the better day, totaling 99 yards on the ground while finding the end zone for his fourth rushing touchdown of the season.
Things didn’t go great for Warren, who saw his 100-plus yards from scrimmage streak snapped at three games last week. Harris will continue to threaten Warren for touches as long as both backs are healthy, but Warren remained a top priority in the offense despite the switch at offensive coordinator.
Now set to take on a Cardinals defense that’s allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks (32.6), Warren should be primed to rebound after flopping in Week 12.
Antonio Gibson (WSH, 8.6 Expected Points)
After being sidelined with a toe injury in Week 11 against the Giants, Antonio Gibson returned in Week 12 against the Cowboys in a Thanksgiving Day tilt. Gibson and the Commanders found themselves on the wrong end of a 45-10 blowout, but he saw double-digit opportunities for the third consecutive game.
In his last four games, Gibson has totaled 210 yards from scrimmage (52.5 YFS/gm) and 20 targets (5.0 TGTS/gm). He’s managed two top-24 fantasy finishes over that span and could be on the short list of top-24 fantasy backs in Week 13 against the Dolphins.
Gibson has been the clear RB2 to Brian Robinson this season, earning a 12 percent target share to Robinson’s 26 percent. While Robinson has dominated in opportunities, Gibson has led the way with efficiency, ranking second among qualified running backs in yards per touch (6.4 TPT, min. 50 touches) while also averaging a solid 3.33 YCO/ATT on his rush attempts to Robinson’s 2.91.
In my perfect world, Gibson would see a larger cut of the touch pie. While I’m left wanting more, his recent target volume gives him enough upside to make him a palatable play in PPR leagues in Week 13.
Wide Receivers
Week 12 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 26.5 | -1.9 | 24.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 23 | -0.6 | 22.4 |
| Josh Downs | IND | 22.9 | -13.6 | 9.3 |
| Michael Pittman Jr | IND | 20.7 | 0 | 20.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 20.2 | 5.2 | 25.4 |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 20 | 2.4 | 22.4 |
| Gabe Davis | BUF | 20 | 2.5 | 22.5 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 19.3 | 3.9 | 23.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | WAS | 19.1 | -0.1 | 19.0 |
| Marquise Brown | ARI | 18.9 | -2.1 | 16.8 |
| Amon-Ra St Brown | DET | 17.3 | 1.2 | 18.5 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 17.2 | 7.5 | 24.7 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | 16.8 | -9.4 | 7.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 16.8 | 2.6 | 19.4 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 16.8 | -7.8 | 9.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 16.4 | 1 | 17.4 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 15.8 | 9.2 | 25.0 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 15.6 | -8.9 | 6.7 |
| AJ Brown | PHI | 15.5 | -0.8 | 14.7 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | 15.2 | -5.3 | 9.9 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 14.9 | 0.1 | 15.0 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 14.4 | 9 | 23.4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 14.3 | 3 | 17.3 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | 14.2 | -3.3 | 10.9 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | 14.2 | 3 | 17.2 |
| Chris Olave | NO | 13.8 | 4.6 | 18.4 |
| Greg Dortch | ARI | 13.8 | -2.1 | 11.7 |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | 13.5 | -7.3 | 6.2 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | 13.2 | -4.2 | 9.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | 13.1 | 10.5 | 23.6 |
| Christian Watson | GB | 12.8 | 7.6 | 20.4 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 12.5 | 9.4 | 21.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 12.5 | 6.9 | 19.4 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 11.8 | -4.3 | 7.5 |
| Christian Kirk | JAC | 10.9 | 2 | 12.9 |
| Drake London | ATL | 10.6 | 3.5 | 14.1 |
Rashee Rice (KC, 17.2 Expected Points)
We are once again trying to figure out what’s going on with Chiefs receivers. A breakout role for Rice appeared to be inbound several weeks ago. He set back-to-back career highs in routes run in Weeks 6 and 7 and managed nine receptions for 132 yards and one touchdown over that span. Then, in Weeks 9 and 11, he managed a combined 6-59-1.
Despite the up-and-down performances from Rice, last week’s outing against the Raiders may have officially signaled Rice’s arrival. Establish the Run’s Sam Sherman touched on several season-highs Rice hit in Week 12.
Rashee Rice set season highs today in:
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) November 27, 2023
- Catches (8)
- Yardage (107)
- Targets (10)
- Target Share (31%)
- Routes Run (71%)
WR3 with upside rest of season. Hopefully he can continue to avoid rookie mistakes and earn a stable starting WR route share going forward
This is all very good for Rice and his fantasy managers. Not only does Rice’s role once again appear to be increasing but he’s remained one of the most efficient receivers in the league all season long. Among 57 receivers with at least 50 targets, here’s where Rice ranks in several efficiency and usage metrics.
| Stat | Total | Rank |
| TGTs/RR | 0.25 | 14th |
| YPRR | 2.42 | 10th |
| YAC/REC | 8.1 | 1st |
Among those same receivers, Rice has a 5.5 aDOT, which ranks dead last in the group, but that shouldn’t be cause for concern. Over the last few years, the Chiefs have specialized in using their No. 1 receiver in the short areas of the field and allowing them to create after the catch.
From 2020 to 2022, Patrick Mahomes has never finished lower than sixth in pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage and 10th in passes in the short area of the field. JuJu Smith-Schuster, who led all Chiefs receivers with 97 targets in 2022, ranked fifth with a 7.1 aDOT, while 49.6 percent of his 933 receiving yards came after the catch.
Playing in an offense that’s lacked a true WR1 for much of the season, Rice’s path to fantasy relevance the rest of the year is very much in the clear. A stable, high-end target share is all that’s keeping him from being a weekly starter in fantasy. He is once again trending in the right direction.
Christian Watson (GB, 12.8 Expected Points)
The 2023 season has gotten off to a slow start for Christian Watson. The former second-round pick missed the first three games with a nagging hamstring injury and didn’t see a snap share above 80 percent until Week 5.
Currently ranked as the WR56 in fantasy points per game (9.2), we’re still waiting to see Watson take that next leap, but it could be coming sooner rather than later.
In Week 12 against the Lions, Watson led the way with five receptions for 94 yards and one touchdown. His seven targets were second only to Jayden Reed, who missed the first two practices of this week with a chest injury. When this article was published, Reed’s Week 13 status was still up in the air.
Over the last five weeks, Watson has steadily come on for the Packers. He’s been targeted seven or more times in three of his previous five games and ranks 11th in total air yards (486) and first in air yards per target (17.4, min. 20 targets) over that span.
Jordan Love has done well at spreading the ball around during this stretch. While Watson leads the team with 28 targets, rookie Jayden Reed is tied with him for the lead, and Romeo Doubs (27) is hot on their heels.
In addition to drawing targets, Watson also gives Love a lot of open looks. His 3.0 average yards of separation per Next Gen Stats ranks 23rd with the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chris Olave — to name a few.
Watson and the Packers face off against the Chiefs in Week 13. Over the last five weeks, the Chiefs rank 21st in points per game allowed to receivers (30.5) but have allowed the top-12 performances to the position in three of those games. Watson’s recent run of success and field-stretching ability has me intrigued this week, especially with so many high-end receivers on bye.
Tight Ends
Week 12 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 16.4 | 4.6 | 21.0 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | 15.6 | -2.6 | 13.0 |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | 15.6 | 4.3 | 19.9 |
| David Njoku | CLE | 15.5 | -3.6 | 11.9 |
| Evan Engram | JAC | 14.1 | -4.2 | 9.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 12.8 | 4.9 | 17.7 |
| TJ Hockenson | MIN | 10.8 | 5.2 | 16.0 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | 10.2 | 1.1 | 11.3 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 10.2 | 4.9 | 15.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | 10.1 | -1.6 | 8.5 |
| Luke Farrell | JAC | 9.9 | -1.4 | 8.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 9.4 | -0.6 | 8.8 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | 8.8 | -0.8 | 8.0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN | 8.4 | 0.1 | 8.5 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | 8.2 | 6.1 | 14.3 |
Pat Freiermuth (PIT, 16.4 Expected Points)
It took only one game without Matt Canada for the Steelers and Kenny Pickett to tap into Pat Friermuth’s offensive upside. Through his first five games of the season, Freiermuth had nine receptions for 60 yards and two touchdowns on 14 targets. The third-year tight end, who totaled 123-1229-9 through two seasons, was suddenly a forgotten man in an offense in search of solutions to its offensive woes.
Canada was let go after the Steelers’ Week 11 loss to the Browns, and in the following week, new offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner went out of his way to get Freiermuth involved early and often.
Freiermuth’s first two receptions on the day came on passes of 20-plus yards downfield. He sprinkled in several other big plays throughout the afternoon and suddenly found himself with a 9-120 outing on a team-high 11 targets.
It’s only a one-game sample, but Freiermuth’s usage and where he lined up looked significantly different in Week 12 against the Bengals.
| Freiermuth w/ Canada | Freiermuth w/o Canada | |
| Targets/gm | 2.8 | 11 |
| aDOT | 6.6 | 9.7 |
| Slot Rate | 28.7% | 48.1% |
We’ll see which trends stick and which fall by the wayside, but Freiermuth is firmly on the streaming radar with so many teams on bye this week. He’s been able to stretch the field during his first three years in the league, ranking 15th among qualified tight ends in air yards per target (7.0 AY/TGT, min. 100 targets), and is 17th in YAC/REC (4.4).
He’s managed a meager 15 percent target share for his career — the downside of playing with target hog Diontae Johnson. With that said, Freiermuth has also finished as a TE1 in 47 percent of his games and gets a juicy Week 13 matchup against a Cardinals defense that’s allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game (14.1) over the last five weeks.
Juwan Johnson (NO, 10.1 Expected Points)
This is more of a “hold your nose” play, but surviving the bye week requires a certain level of boldness.
Bye weeks, and in some cases, injuries, hit the tight end position particularly hard this week, as shown below.
| Player | PPR/gm | Rank |
| Mark Andrews | 13.5 | 3rd |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.5 | 9th |
| Cole Kmet | 11.2 | 6th |
| Michael Mayer | 4.6 | 34th |
| T.J. Hockenson | 15.7 | 2nd |
| Darren Waller | 10.1 | 11th |
It’s ugly out there, folks. It’s so ugly that we may need to consider playing Juwan Johnson against the Lions in Week 13.
The matchup could be better. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game (9.5) to opposing tight ends, but the Saints have also seen their receiver room get decimated by injuries.
Michael Thomas (knee) is already on injured reserve, and Rashid Shaheed (thigh) and Chris Olave (concussion) are at risk of missing Week 13.
With Shaheed and Olave injured in Week 12, Johnson emerged to see a season-high seven targets while converting them to four receptions for 45 yards. If Johnson feels like too gross of a pivot, a similarly risky play in Tyler Higbee can likely be had. Higbee gets an even tougher matchup against the Browns but did pop on the fantasy radar last week with an unexpected 5-29-2 line on five targets.