Over the last three weeks, we’ve hit on 21 of our 30 picks for the top 10 defenses, so the tweaks to the weekly formula appear to be working. We did miss with the Chiefs on Sunday, as they put up a big-time dud against the Raiders, but we had other solid showings just miss the top 10, like Pittsburgh with 10 points.
It also may be that time in the season to start re-adjusting the way we feel about certain teams. We rode the Saints early in the season, but they’ve averaged just 5.4 points per game over the last six weeks while the Lions defense has scored just 2.8 points. Six weeks is a big enough sample size that it’s not just a few tough matchups. Meanwhile, in the other direction, the Colts defense has averaged 11.4 points over the last six weeks, while the Broncos have averaged 10.6 and the Giants have averaged 10.
As we get closer to the fantasy playoffs, we want to keep season-long performance in mind, but also not lose track of how team dynamics can change over time. We always need to be shifting our understanding of a team’s true talent.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate) + (Knockdowns) + (Pass Defense Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score) + (Explosive Plays Allowed Per Game)
It’s important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Special shoutout to Arjun Menon, who calculates the explosive plays per game formula. You can check him out on Twitter here.
Season-Long Accuracy
Throughout the season I’ll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it’s not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it’s the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten performing defenses of the week, we’re not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 62-of-120 (51.7%)
So how do things stack up for Week 13?
It seems like the small stretch of games where Sam Howell wasn’t taking sacks or throwing multiple interceptions has come and gone. The first-year starter has now taken 14 sacks in his last four games with five interceptions over that span, granted three came in one game against the Giants. It’s certainly not all on Howell, but the Commanders remain an offense that we want to attack, especially with a defense like Miami who rank second in knockdowns (sacks plus QB hits) per game, fourth in explosive play rate allowed and fifth in pressure rate. The Dolphins should be a good bet for another double-digit point day.
By now, you’ve realized that you can start any defense against Tim Boyle and the Jets. Earlier in the season, this Jets offense had some fight and young playmakers who made them a good matchup for defenses but one that could always hit on a big play or two. Now, this offensive line is a mess, the offensive players are getting fed up, and Tim Boyle is clearly not an improvement on Wilson. While the Falcons are middle of the pack in many defensive metrics that we like, they rank ninth in pressure rate and 11th in explosive play rate allowed, so they should be able to get into the backfield and limit the Jets offense from doing much.
The Panthers offense made the Titans defense fantasy-relevant last week, so we should feel good about them doing the same for the Bucs. Over the last month, Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I don’t think that’s going to change because they fired Frank Reich. Tampa Bay’s weakness is in the secondary, but Bryce Young and this Panthers offense hasn’t seemed able to mount a passing attack in even the best matchups. The Bucs are seventh in turnover rate and seventh in yards per carry allowed, so I think they’ll force the Panthers to throw and take advantage of Young’s mistakes. I should note that if Lavonte David isn’t back for this game, I may move the Bucs down a couple of spots since he’s their best defensive player right now.
This is an interesting tier where we get a lot of defenses that have great matchups or have really turned their performance up a notch over the last 4-6 weeks.
We’ve now seen six quarters of the Bengals’ offense with Jake Browning under center and it’s simply not explosive. Despite trailing for much of the game, the Bengals only had Browning drop back to throw 26 times, which is a sign of the cautious gameplan they’re likely to have going forward. They had only 10 first downs and possessed the ball for just over 20 minutes. They also only committed one turnover, and over that two week span, the Bengals rank 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. While that’s a super small sample size, it’s the sample we’re working with, and I believe that cautious approach is going to make it tough on fantasy defenses who are not as good as the Steelers to put up big scores. The Jaguars pass rush has been a bit underwhelming so far this season, ranking 15th in pressure rate and 15th in knockdowns, but they provide a very safe floor which gets them into the top 10.
Much like with the Falcons against the Jets, the Chargers are playable because of their matchup. The Chargers defense has not lived up to expectations and, in fact, the Chargers as a whole have laid a big egg this season. They rank 18th in turnover rate, 19th in pressure rate, and 26th in opponents; scoring rate; however, their defense was solid enough against the Ravens and now get a Patriots offense that couldn’t do anything against the Giants and has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. We could be looking at Bailey Zappe at quarterback, and I’m not sure that’s any better than that this offense has looked like with Mac Jones. SUNDAY UPDATE: The weather is supposed to be gross in this game, which makes me think we may see a good deal of turnovers.
The Colts defense showed up against a Bucs offense that hasn’t been great but also hasn’t turned the ball over or allowed many sacks this season, so the fact that the Colts were able to register six sacks and force two turnovers is an impressive feat. The Colts now have 15 sacks over their last three games and should get another easy test against a Tennessee Titans offense that allows the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and has given up 11 sacks in those four games. I expect the Colts to get into the backfield again and cause some havoc.
It’s hard to know how to rank the Browns until we know how serious Myles Garrett’s injury is. The reports after the game were not good with a discussion of him being unable to lift his arm to take his jersey off and then his arm being in a sling. This Browns defense has been strong all season, but they obviously take a hit if Garrett is out because the teeth is taken out of that pass rush. The Browns currently rank 19th in explosive play rate allowed and 19th in turnover rate, so their pass rush covers up some potential weaknesses that could be exposed without Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward, who is also questionable to play this week. If one or both of those players miss, we may need to move the Browns down in the rankings, especially considering this Rams offense is a different animal with Kyren Williams back. SUNDAY UPDATE: With Garrett playing, even at less than 100%, I feel like the Browns have a safe enough floor to use. I’m a little worried about Flacco at QB though.
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Since Kyler Murray has returned to the starting lineup, the Cardinals offense has given up three turnovers and nine sacks in three games. While those aren’t eye-popping numbers, it’s better than what we were getting from Clayton Tune and Josh Dobbs (when James Conner was out). As a result, the Cardinals have allowed the 18th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses since Kyler has been back. Pittsburgh’s defense has been strong all season, so they’re certainly still in play here, but Arizona is also not as easy a matchup as they were earlier in the season.
With Kenneth Walker potentially out, this Seahawks offense is not quite as potent as they are at full strength, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. The Cowboys remain third in opponent’s scoring rate, third in pass defended rate, ninth in turnover rate, and ninth in knockdowns per game, so I still believe they’re a safe bet this week, but they don’t have a great ceiling against the Seahawks.
The Chiefs got off to a really slow start against the Raiders and put up a dud score of just two points. It was just the second time in the last seven weeks they’ve scored less than double-digits, but those two times have come in the last two weeks. On the season, they rank first in pressure rate, second in opponent’s scoring rate, and sixth in knockdowns per game and now get a matchup against a Packers team that could likely be without Aaron Jones for another week. I know Jordan Love has looked better of late, and the Packers beat up on the Lions on Thanksgiving, but this Chiefs defense is a much stiffer test, so I expect Kansas City to still sneak into the top 10.
The Rams defense has not been a unit we really want to play of late, but they get a Browns offense that has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and should have P.J. Walker at quarterback again on Sunday. There’s also a chance that Amari Cooper misses the game with a rib injury, but for the purpose of this ranking, I’m assuming that Cooper will suit up and just may be a little limited. SUNDAY UPDATE: With Joe Flacco starting, I expect some more sacks for the Rams, but I also think Flacco will be more cautious than DTR, which could be a boring, run-heavy game with fewer turnovers, so I don’t think we get a blow-up game from the Rams DST.
It comes to the point in the rankings where we need to rank the 49ers and Eagles. These are two defense we usually like to use who are hurt by facing one another. However, we have to put the 49ers higher. The Eagles defense just allowed 505 yards to the Bills while registering just one sack and forcing one turnover. They’ve allowed over 400 total yards in three of their last four games. They’re certainly capable of slowing down the 49ers offense, but it’s hard to have lots of confidence in it. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense is strong but also ranks 20th in turnover rate and has multiple turnovers in four of their last six games. They could score 24+ points here and still allow the 49ers to finish as a deep-league fantasy option.
Despite their struggles on offense, the Jets defense remains playable on the other end. They still rank second in pressure rate, fifth in passes defended rate, and 10th in turnover rate. They’ve also held five of their last six opponents under 90 yards rushing, which could make things tough for Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ running game. The Falcons will certainly try to run the ball 30+ times, but if they’re forced to throw to move the ball, I think this Jets defense is capable of making a big play or two to put up a solid fantasy day.
The Denver Broncos defense has been tremendous of late, forcing 15 turnovers and notching nine sacks in their last four games and not allowing a single opponent to score more than 22 points in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed six turnovers in their last three games. While they didn’t commit any against the Jaguars last week, they also struggled with efficiency and finished under 400 yards for the first time since late October. Now, that doesn’t make the Texans a good matchup, but it makes Denver playable in deeper leagues, which likely wasn’t the case a month ago when the Texans had given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. They’ve now allowed the 14th-fewest over the last month, which is still above average but not elite.
The Lions and Saints game features two defenses that had recently been fantasy darlings but have both fallen off of late, which we covered in the introduction. However, I have the Lions above the Saints here because Chris Olave suffered a concussion on Sunday and Rashid Shaheed had a quad injury and both seem unlikely to play. That will leave the Saints with A.T. Perry and Lynn Bowden as their top receivers trying to keep up with the Lions offense. I think Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill get enough work to keep the Lions out of the top 10, but they remain the better play, even though the Lions offense has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, which keeps the Saints in play in deeper leagues too. SUNDAY UPDATE: I moved the Lions into the tier below with the news that Olave is playing.
Both the Packers and Commanders could be playable in deeper formats because the Chiefs and Dolphins, respectively, are good offenses that tend to allow fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Chiefs offense ranks 24th in the NFL in turnover rate, while the Dolphins rank 27th. What’s funny is that, as much as people want to talk about Tua Tagovailoa being an elite passer, he actually ranks 24th among quarterbacks in interception rate, tied with Sam Howell, Jordan Love, and Justin Fields. Tua has a 3.3 turnover-worthy play rate, according to PFF, which is tied with Tommy DeVito and behind Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, and well behind Josh Allen’s mark of 2.3, just for all the discussion of Allen’s turnover prowess.
There are so many teams on a bye this week that they get their own tier.
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!
