Another fantasy football playoff stretch has come completing with tilting chaos. Many of the consensus top defenses last week (Buffalo, Denver, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Indianapolis) all struggled in solid matchups. Meanwhile, Baltimore, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, and Detroit all wound up in the top five.
That’s the danger of rankings/picking defenses at this time of year. With the season drawing to a close, it’s hard to predict just how much a team or its players will care. It’s hard to figure out who is playing through injuries that will impact performance more now that playoffs are out of the question. Some teams are trying to save their coach’s jobs; others don’t seem to care so much. There are so many off field factors to contemplate that it’s hard to pin down exactly what version of each team will show up on Sunday.
With that being said, we need to keep doing our best to pick defenses that are coming into the game playing well, have something to play for, and are going up against offenses that either don’t have anything to play for or have been playing poor football of late. Hopefully those factors can help us land a top-ten unit and a fantasy championship.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate) + (Knockdowns) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score) + (Explosive Plays Allowed Per Game x2)
It’s important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Special shoutout to Arjun Menon, who calculates the explosive plays per game formula. You can check him out on Twitter here.
Season-Long Accuracy
Throughout the season I’ll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it’s not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it’s the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten top performing defenses of the week, we’re not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 81-of-160 (51%)
So how do things stack up for Week 17?
Considering the situations the San Francisco offense put the defense in on Monday night, the effort against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens was not as bad as it seems on the surface. The Ravens gained 5.4 yards per play, which was a full yard less than the 49ers offense gained per play, and that was also while the 49ers were without key defenders like Arik Armstead. The 49ers will now get a much easier test against the Washington Commanders, who have given up the third-most sacks in the NFL. Oddly, Washington going to their backup, Jacoby Brissett, makes them a slightly worse matchup because he plays less “hero ball” than Sam Howell, but this is still an elite matchup for a 49ers team that should look to come out and re-assert their place as a Super Bowl favorite.
Both the Browns and Jets defenses are certainly in play here; however, we don’t feel nearly as good about the Jets after they blew a huge lead once Washington brought in Brissett last week. Still, while Joe Flacco is throwing the ball well, he is taking sacks and will throw an interception or two, which is why the Browns have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the last month. That could be bad news against a Jets defense that is still averaging eight fantasy points per game over the last month. On the other side, the Browns defense has continued to overcome multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball and will get a Jets offense that has given up the second-most sacks in the NFL, the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, and might be starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback again. Both of these defenses are good plays, but the Browns feel like the better bet.
The Raiders went into Arrowhead and locked down Patrick Mahomes and now have an outside shot to win their division. While that’s highly unlikely, this team is clearly playing hard and playing well. Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew and the Colts looked horrible against the Falcons and are seeing their playoff chances slip away. Minshew is capable of making a terrible play every time he drops back to pass, and the Colts are giving up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over that last month. That gives the Raiders defense a shot to make the kind of big plays they did against the Chiefs. I also don’t love that Michael Pittman had a setback in his concussion recovery, which could make it hard for him to play on Sunday.
The Bills failed to deliver for us against the Chargers; although, the defense did hold Los Angeles under 270 yards but was given short field position three times on Buffalo turnovers. It looked a little bit like the Bills took the Chargers lightly, which won’t happen here since Buffalo is at home and already lost to New England once this season. The Bills have an outside shot at the second seed in the AFC, so you know they’ll be playing with some edge. If they can also get Micah Hyde and A.J. Epenesa back in action, that will be a big boost for this defense against a Patriots offense that has been better with Bailey Zappe under center and is now giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing defense over the last month.
The Texans defense was in a bad spot last week when C.J. Stroud was ruled out, which is why I dropped them from fourth down to 15th. Things got even worse for them when Jimmie Ward got hurt in the first quarter. However, I expect Stroud back this week, which means the offense will move the ball and keep pressure off the defense (not to mention, keep them off the field). I also expect Jimmie Ward back, which means this defense will be at close to full strength against a Titans offense that has given up 13 sacks in their last two games and has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing defense over the last month. With Houston still battling for a playoff spot, I expect them to come out hungry on Sunday.
The Broncos are another team that failed to deliver for us in a good spot this past week, but you think they’d come out swinging against Easton Stick with their playoff chances on the line. To his credit, Stick did look better against the Bills with a full week of practice under his belt, and he can make some plays with his legs. However, the Chargers give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and now that they’re eliminated from playoff contention, I’m not expecting Keenan Allen to play through his injury, but I would certainly move Denver down a few spots if he does. SUNDAY UPDATE: I moved the Broncos down with Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton out because I feel like the offense could put the defense into some
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Jacksonville’s defense has fallen off a bit, but we always like to consider defenses going up against Carolina. The Panthers did allow fewer than eight fantasy points for the first time in two months on Sunday, thanks to Green Bay’s collapse, and they’ve now fallen out of the top-ten easiest matchups for opposing defenses over the last month; however, the Jags still have a better defense than whatever Green Bay is putting out there. My bigger concern is that the Jacksonville offense could put the defense in bad situations if Trevor Lawrence isn’t able to play, but that’s not enough to full scare me off this play. SUNDAY UPDATE: I moved Jacksonville down with C.J. Beathard starting because I think the defense could be put in some bad spots.
The Ravens and Dolphins are two defenses we like to play, and both showed up in big spots this past week. As a result, it’s easy to want to go back to the well. I just have a hard time doing so knowing that the offenses they’re playing against are so talented. I know they obviously can put up good scores against elite offenses, but it’s a risky play with the fantasy championships on the line. If you were playing one of these defenses, I’d lean towards Baltimore because of what they did to the 49ers on Monday and the fact that Jaylen Waddle seems unlikely to play with a high ankle sprain. I know it’s crazy of me to have Baltimore this low when we saw what they did to San Francisco, but it’s just hard to count on that happening again against another top tier offense. SUNDAY UPDATE: I moved Baltimore up with Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert ruled out.
The Bears defense has been great of late, so I know many people will have them ranked higher, but this Falcons offense is better with Taylor Heinicke under center and they give up fewer turnovers and sacks than when Desmond Ridder is at quarterback. That doesn’t make them a BAD play, but it means they’re not as good of a matchup as season-long rankings would have us believe. In fact, they give up the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. I don’t mind the Bears as a play, but I don’t love it.
The Rams are another defense that might seem like they should be higher, but with Tyrod Taylor likely starting for Tommy DeVito, this Giants matchup is simply not as good. The Giants allow the most sacks in the NFL, but Tyrod is a very cautious quarterback who has the mobility to avoid sacks and has good pocket awareness. While I don’t think that means you want to avoid playing the Rams, I do think it means that they’re not in as great of a spot as they would have been if DeVito was playing. It’s hard to play a defense averaging under five points a game over the last month with your fantasy title on the line.
The Chiefs and the Bengals have both become offenses we don’t mind playing against. The Raiders absolutely owned the Chiefs offense on Monday, and the Bengals look like they could be without Ja’Marr Chase again this weekend. As a result, it feels like we should be smashing both defenses into our lineups, but I’m more inclined to side with the Bengals since the Chiefs allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last months. On the other hand, both units are dealing with injuries and it’s hard to bet against either of these head coaches. As a result, I think both defenses are in play but I think might be a little riskier than we think. SUNDAY UPATE: I moved both the Bengals and Chiefs down with some other defenses moving up. Also, L’Jarius Sneed is banged up, which I think hurts KC here.
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It’s hard to get excited about playing the Packers after they collapsed in the second half against the Panthers. However, the Vikings allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. At this point, it’s unclear if the Vikings will go back to Nick Mullens, but he is prone to making poor decisions with the football, which could lead to a few turnovers and sacks. However, the Packers defense has been playing poorly enough that I’d rather not play them outside of deeper formats. SUNDAY UPDATE: I moved Green Bay up a bit with T.J, Hockeson out, Jordan Addison questionable and Jarren Hall starting at QB for Minnesota.
As bad as the Cardinals offense might seem, they have given up the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so they’re not a smash spot matchup. It’s still a matchup Philadelphia should take advantage of, but the defense almost let the game slip away against the Giants on Monday, so this unit has problems. I expect Hollywood Brown to play on Sunday, which makes this a bit of a harder test for the Eagles, but I’d move them up a couple of spots if he doesn’t. Still Philadelphia has averaged just 3.8 fantasy points per game over the last month, so it’s hard to get too excited about playing them.
Kenny Pickett may be back under center on Sunday and while that doesn’t seem like a huge deal, he’s been much better at taking care of the ball than either Mitchell Trubisky or Mason Rudolph. The Steelers aren’t going to all of the sudden become an explosive offense, but they may go back to being a below average matchup for fantasy defenses. When you add that to the fact that the Seahawks are so all over the place as a defense and is averaging just 4.5 points per game over the last month, it’s hard to feel confident in the effort we’ll see from them this weekend.
I don’t feel comfortable starting any of these defenses in any format.
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!