The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Optimal Roster Theory
The optimal roster, on average, scores about 21 points more than the winning roster in the Millionaire Maker tournament. Compare that to contests with a smaller field and you’ll see a greater deviation from optimal. What that means is that the margin of error in contests with larger field sizes is reduced, making it beneficial to construct rosters differently than in smaller contests. That’s an important realization considering the optimal roster is often going to have less correlation on a standard week. Therefore, DraftKings user dustpop’s roster could appear to have minimal correlation on the surface, but it closer to optimal theory than one might initially think.
The biggest issue that arises in creating a repeatable habit pattern to attack this contest is that there are astronomical levels of variance in that approach. This is the 15th year of the Millionaire Maker contest. There has not been an optimal roster win a tournament at any point in that span, and it might ever occur, mathematically speaking. That theoretically means we don’t need to target optimal theory, instead increasing correlation and stacks as a means of reducing variance. We aren’t taking anything away from dustpop here, he or she just won a million dollars. But his or her win is akin to hitting the lottery as opposed to something repeatedly designed to boost expected value.
Continue Targeting RBs Against the Panthers
The Panthers entered Week 5 allowing a touchdown on over 91% of opposing red zone trips. They left Week 5 allowing a touchdown on 87.5% of opposing red zone trips. In other words, this defense is largely incapable of keeping teams out of the end zone once they enter the red zone. That is a trend we should be targeting as much as possible until we see those tendencies change. D’Andre Swift scored from the one while Roschon Johnson, the team’s preferred goal line option, scored twice from the one. And that doesn’t even include the additional rushing scores that were called back due to penalty from the Bears. Take note of this trend before the field catches on!
Value Eruption
One of the highest rates of a situation appearing on the optimal roster in DFS is for a player priced below $5,000 amassing 100 yards and a score. We’ve seen it with Alec Pierce and Darius Slayton already this season. Particularly in a contest with a massive field, in which we have a smaller margin for error away from optimal, targeting this archetype of player via roster construction tendencies is going to be immensely valuable moving forward.
Looking Ahead
Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb + Jake Ferguson
The Cowboys averaged a league-high 36.8 points per game at home in 2023. They struggled to find their footing in their first two home games of 2024, scoring 19 against the Saints before 25 against the Ravens. Their backfield has remained inconsistent and uninspiring, and they now get the ultra-pass-funnel Lions defense at home in Week 6, with one of their primary pass-catchers out of action. That provides a situation where the pass game production is likely to be heavily focused on the remaining primary pieces through the air. If the Cowboys are succeeding, that matchup says it is highly likely to be coming through the air, and we’ve already seen the Lions involved in one of the highest point total games of the season when they combined to score 71 points against the Seahawks in Week 4. Due to the combined salary of this three-person stack, we’ll need them to approach “put the slate out of reach” territory, which is within their range of outcomes in this spot.
Bijan Robinson
Continue targeting running backs against the Panthers. The Panthers have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (29.6). More importantly, we have yet to see how Zac Robinson will behave in positive game script after the Falcons have had a murderer’s row of opponents through the first five weeks of the season. They lost to the Steelers in Week 1, escaped with a victory in Week 2 after late-game heroics against the Eagles, lost to the Chiefs in Week 3, kicked a last-minute field goal to beat the Saints in Week 4, and walked it off against the Buccaneers in overtime in Week 5. Might we see Robinson improve upon his 13.4 carries and 4.0 targets per game workload he’s seen during the first five weeks against a Panthers team allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing backfields while allowing a touchdown on 87.5% of opposing red zone trips this season? I think we just may.
Tre Tucker
The matchup is not ideal against a Steelers team that has allowed just one 100-yard receiver this season, but Tre Tucker should continue to be an integral piece of the Las Vegas offense with Davante Adams not expected to play again for the team this season. Tucker has seen 85% and 84% snap rates in the two games without Adams this season, seeing seven opportunities in each game (11 targets and three carries). The Steelers have allowed the 14th most fantasy points to wide receivers while holding quarterbacks to the seventh fewest, running backs to the third fewest, and tight ends to the fourth fewest through five weeks. Tucker represents one of the clearer paths to 100 yards and a score in Week 6, of players priced below $5,000 on DraftKings.
