NASCAR returns to NBC Sports this weekend, but it marks a first for the Cup Series as it heads to Iowa Speedway for the first time in series history (6:30 p.m. ET on USA). This 0.875-mile racetrack last held a NASCAR national series event in 2019, won by Chase Briscoe, and has since been repaved in a number of different areas.
Christopher Bell is the heavy favorite (+400) on DraftKings. Bell has two Xfinity Series wins to his credit at Iowa. Last week’s winner, Kyle Larson, follows suit at +550. I will be looking at data from other short, flat tracks entering the weekend, so here is who I like pre-practice and qualifying for the Iowa Corn 350 (Odds as of Thursday, June 13).
Denny Hamlin to Win (+700)
Hamlin completed two laps last weekend at Sonoma before suffering a blown engine. Despite having no track history at Iowa, I expect the No. 11 to unload fast and run up front. He has had Top Six speed at every short, flat track run this year, highlighted by his win at Richmond and runner-up finish at Gateway.
Of the three favorites, I do believe Hamlin offers the most value at this point in the week. Note: the last time Hamlin had an early exit from a race this season, he responded with a win the following weekend. I found this priced at +700 at DraftKings.
Tyler Reddick to Win (+1600)
Of the Toyota’s entering the weekend, I believe Reddick will be the most overlooked of them all, and Caesar’s is giving us a great price for the No. 45 to win at Iowa. He has finished inside of the Top 10 at every short, flat track this season and was arguably the best car at Phoenix.
Reddick has also qualified inside of the Top Eight in the last four races, so I expect this number to get shorter once cars hit the track. He has momentum entering the weekend and should continue to build on it at Iowa.
Brad Keselowski to finish Top Five (+220)
Keselowski’s streak of three-straight Top Three finishes was snapped last week at Sonoma, but I expect the No. 6 to be in the mix for a Top Five this weekend. He has three Xfinity Series wins at Iowa and cashed this bet at both Phoenix and Gateway earlier this season. He also participated in Goodyear’s tire test last month, giving him a slight advantage on track time compared to the rest of the field.
While Keselowski should be fast in race trim, qualifying has hindered this team in 2024. His average starting position of 21.5 leaves a lot to be desired, which could result in an even longer price come the weekend in all markets. With that said, I do believe bet365’s price of +220 for a Top Five is fair ahead of practice and qualifying. However, I would monitor his outright price for a more favorable number.
Ross Chastain to finish Top 10 (-120)
Chastain is another driver with a good deal of experience at Iowa with 14 starts in both the Xfinity and Truck Series. Plus, he is pulling double duty this weekend running the Xfinity Series race on Saturday.
Chastain enters the weekend with Top 10s in two of the last three races, and he does have a sixth-place finish at Phoenix to his credit. I do believe experience will carry the No. 1 to another one this weekend. DraftKings is offering this at -120 and that is the lowest I am willing to go for this play.
Enjoy the racing in Iowa.
