The Cup Series playoffs continue Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET on USA, post-race show on Peacock). These are the pressing questions NBC Sports’ Dustin Long and John Newby are asking after the field slimmed down to 12 drivers.
Which driver can continue his momentum all the way to the Round of 8?
Long: This is Denny Hamlin’s world and we’re all living in it, right? Or is it he’s living in the heads of all the haters? Hamlin’s car has speed. Hamlin has one of the sport’s top crew chiefs in Chris Gabehart. Hamlin has one of the top pit crews. Hamlin led a third of all the laps run in the first round. Hamlin won at Bristol, could have won at Darlington before he had a loose wheel and could have won at Kansas if he hadn’t been so focused on what was happening behind him instead of in front of him on the final restart. Yes, Kyle Larson had an average finish of 2.3 in the first round, but it’s hard to argue Hamlin also doesn’t carry significant momentum into this round.
Newby: Brad Keselowski. The 2012 Cup Series champion finished top 10 in every race of the Round of 16. More importantly, he avoided the mistakes that plagued his fellow playoff drivers. He is three points below the cutline but can stockpile points at tracks – Texas and Talladega – where he has consistent success. This run includes four straight top-10 finishes at Texas and three top fives in the past five Talladega races.
What is a concern you have about a specific driver entering this round?
Long: The way Kyle Busch and his Richard Childress Racing team is trending. The first round was rough. He twice started at the back of the field and scored points in only one stage in the round, collecting six points in the second stage at Darlington. This team had a strong stretch from May to July, scoring seven consecutive top-10 finishes, so one can’t count this team out. The challenge is this car doesn’t seem to have the speed some others left in the playoffs do.
Newby: On paper, the Round of 12 should line up nicely for Ryan Blaney. He has wins at Talladega and the Roval and an All-Star Race win at Texas. My biggest concern is the lack of consistency this season from Blaney and Team Penske. In the last 14 races alone, he has 10 finishes of 12th or worse with two DNFs. He scored 20 stage points across the first two races of the Round of 16 but struggled at Bristol after contact with the wall. Now he has to work his way from below the cutline.
Will Martin Truex Jr. take advantage of the points reset?
Long: That’s why the regular season is so important. All those points gained can allow teams to overcome problems early in the playoffs. Truex and his team have a second chance. It seems unlikely they’ll have as problematic a round as they did in the first round. Still, it’s up to them to take advantage of his second chance. Will they? Seems likely but who would have expected the first round to have been so challenging for this team?
Newby: Yes. The Round of 12 has three tracks where Truex has never won in 75 combined starts. I still see him moving on to the Round of 8. It would be difficult to recreate the number of issues that the No. 19 team experienced during the opening round of the playoffs, such as a punctured tired in the opening laps at Kansas. If they can just deliver solid performances, he should be able to take advantage of being 25 points above cutline.